Covy's NBA 1Q totals system

[Covy]

I have created a new system with a formula which I backtested to last season with a 57.4% winning rate. It takes into account the entire seasons scoring paces/etc and injuries. Tested last year without accounting for injuries so number may vary. Could be fools gold so we will find out. Starting lineups with PERs are also incorporated

Will post plays here to keep record.

NY/Brooklyn u48.5 (3 units)
Dallas/Chicago u52 (1 unit)
Toronto/Sac u51.5 (2 units)
Orlando/GS o52.5 (1 unit)

[Covy]

NY/Brooklyn u48.5 (3 units) W
Dallas/Chicago u52 (1 unit) W
Toronto/Sac u51.5 (2 units) L
Orlando/GS o52.5 (1 unit) L

2-2 +.7 units

Today, I am increasing the threshold in which I will consider a play. Tomorrow I will explain how I calculate these plays. Most of my projected scores are within 2 points of the 1q totals provided by 5Dimes which I use. All these games are at least 3 points off the lines provided with my projected totals

Boston/Detroit o50.5 (2 units)
Memphis/Houston o47.5(1 unit)
Philly/Minny u54.5 (2 units)

[Covy]

2-2 +.7 units
Boston/Detroit o50.5 (2 units) L 23-21
Memphis/Houston o47.5(1 unit) W 34-28
Philly/Minny u54.5 (2 units) W 23-13

4-3 +1.5 units
2 games hit easily and the third one never really had a chance. So far things don't look too bad

[Covy]

NO/GS u51 (1 unit)

[Covy]

NO/GS u51 W 28-22 (1 unit)

Closer than I expected but a W is a W

5-3 +2.5 units

[Covy]

5-3 +2.5 units

NYK/Cha u47 (1 unit)
Mia/Mil u50 (1 unit)