Peep's Champ and Mafia Leans for Saturday 03/29/2009

King_Bookie · 03-29-09, 04:09 AM

cle -8.5
bos -11
sac +5.5

stakagrp · 03-29-09, 04:34 AM

I like your Cleveland under 191. Most games played between the two at Cleveland goes under the mark. Aside from that you have both teams playing as if they were in the playoffs which means defense even though Dallas like you said doesn't always do so. I'm going to put Cleveland in a moneyline parlay whenever that line comes out and possibly even putting Dallas+8.5 which is kind of silly. I'm not sure that Cleveland will cover this spread. The game is nationally televised and Dallas still has that ugly taste in their mouth after losing to Denver by 2 at home

I'm thinking Boston over 190.5. I would normally go with the under on this but OKC doesn't put up much defense and the possibility of KG being out will limit Boston's emphasis on D a little. A few of the games that Boston played without KG scored a bit higher than normal. The pace of the game was a little faster and the defense was limited. Another factor for possibly going over is that Boston scores more at home. I'm going to wait til morning to see how the public is betting and where the line moves on this one.

Boston-11. I hope they get it done, but without KG's presence I'm afraid that they fall short of covering. OKC has been trying a little harder, but are still garbage.

Spurs pk. The Spurs are healthy and the Hornets not, but I'm thinking the whole NO squad will be playing in this one because Chandler, Peja, and Armstrong are listed as questionable or probable, which means that they will play for the big game. The game is on ESPN so its going to be a playoff atmosphere. This will be a tough game to call. I might just stay away or put something really small on it.

Not all the lines are out yet so will check back in the morning. Please let me know what you guys think of the picks so far as to whether you guys agree with them or not. I'm all ears for any angles possible. Thanks and Gl.

In2Win · 03-29-09, 04:41 AM

by the way i wish it was still saturday instead of sunday... =)

MrWendell · 03-29-09, 06:58 AM

Cle/Dal Under 191
Lakers -3,5
Sac/Pho Under 238.0
GL

joanapoker · 03-29-09, 07:15 AM

Sunday and not saturday!!!

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 08:04 AM

hell...yeah I know its sunday.... realized it as soon as I posted it... stupid me... sorry guys

GL

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 08:11 AM

stakagrp

I really dont know about that Spurs pick... I mean if I had to choose one it would be the Spurs... but on the other side you also have to consider that NO lost two in a row now... and the last one against the Knicks, yo they should be fired up...another thing you should factor in that NO is 5-1 SU at home against SA... tough call to make here... you could also add in the revenge factor for NO here... I dont know who the public likes buit the line is moving towards SA so I think its doing what it should do...so NO looks good too...

and I dont know about that Bos over... OKC struggled on offense as of late and Bos plays some great D as of late... I think we could very well see a low scoring game like the one against the Clips a few days back... I think Bos will cover... but the over could be a close one...

GL

pho3nix32 · 03-29-09, 08:47 AM

Got my back-to-back wins today. Hopefully I will be able to another "to back" tomorrow.

line: sas@noh 178
pick: 178 under

The Hornets are depleted. No Chandler, Posey and Peja. How does a depleted team like this score against a healthy Spurs team? Only two things can happen tomorrow. First, the Spurs rout the Hornets. Second, the Hornets put up a fight with what Scott knows best - DEFENSE. Both these possibilities lean strongly to having an under total. Add this number that the under is 5-2 in last 7 meetings between these two teams. Popovich vs. Scott. The under sounds really good to me.

johnnymapalo · 03-29-09, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ok guys I am already up (hell cant sleep too well right now..) so I will start the daily thread today...

here we go:

Cle/Dal Under 191
I never play totals too much bit this one here looks really good...Cle D did a hell of a job limiting the opponent to around 90 ppg as of late...now comes dallas into town... a team that can play D or no D depending on the team they face.. today they play the Cavs so we know they will play some D too... I dont expect the Cavs to blow them away here, maybe score 100 points max... I say this game going under...

Tor -2
looks like this team has finally found its rythm...winning 3 games as of late, not against the best teams but a win is a win... today they face a chi team that is playing on b2b nights (or afternoon) after a tough game against the Pacers... Chi is only 3-6 ATS on the road... Chi is a home team, but not a road team... I will take Tor and the small chalk today...

Bos -11 (or -10 buying a point)
they are 8-1 ATS and SU at home against OKC...Bos had some tough games as of late, but when they played some not soo good competetion they blew them away (Clips, Memphis)...look for this trend to continue today, as OKC was destroyed in its last 2 games... they dont play well right now and it wont help them that they face the Celts today...

3 team 7 point teaser of the day:
Bos -4
Dal +15.5
Ind ?

GL

Everything looks good there except for Toronto -2 and Dallas on the teaser. I would tease Cleveland before I tease Dallas. Dallas do not match up well with Cleveland. I see Dallas getting blown out of the water here..

King_Bookie · 03-29-09, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by johnnymapalo

Everything looks good there except for Toronto -2 and Dallas on the teaser. I would tease Cleveland before I tease Dallas. Dallas do not match up well with Cleveland. I see Dallas getting blown out of the water here..

For once, I agree on what you posted there.

I don't see any matchup where Dallas can exploit something:

Mo = J.Terry
West =/= Wright
LBJ = Singleton LMAO
Varejao =/= Nowitziki (the only matchup where dallas has a slight lead)
Iggy = Dampier

suckatmyjob · 03-29-09, 10:11 AM

was looking for the thread and saturday threw me off haha well anyways maybe peter wanted another great day like Saturday haha

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 10:16 AM

I dont know if the Cavs will blow away the Mavs today by more than 16 points... just dont think it will happen...

NBA Hero · 03-29-09, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

cle -8.5
bos -11
sac +5.5

how come sac, king. i know phoe record on back to back is below 50%. but i suppose they are not like 5%, and anyway they play subpar team well.

rookies against shaq. udrih vs nash, after his awful shooting.

phoe, the veterans will find a way to win.

just my two cent. anyway booked it.

GL

Karayilan9 · 03-29-09, 10:56 AM

Cleveland 1st QTR -2.5

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 10:57 AM

booked plays:
dal +15.5, Ind -2, Bos -4
Cle Under 191

thats it for now...

GL

stakagrp · 03-29-09, 11:20 AM

Thanks Peterpan. I'm always glad to hear others thoughts on games. I think I'm going to stick with Spurs for something smaller and enjoy watching the game without having a heartattack like yesterdays Utah game. I had Utah to win su in several moneyline parlays for a lot of money. That game was the last one that I needed to hit in order to cash in and when they were down in the last minute and half I was about to die. As for the Boston over I might just stay away and lay my money elsewhere on something that I feel more confident about. You're right that OKC has struggled on offense and this might resemble the Bos/Clips game. Gl on your plays.

google99 · 03-29-09, 11:30 AM

Dirk Nowitzki points +4.5-120
Lebron James points -4.5 110

i think Dirk will have a better chance to score more points than James in this game.

johnnymapalo · 03-29-09, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

booked plays:
dal +15.5, Ind -2, Bos -4
Cle Under 191

thats it for now...

GL

Looks like a 4-0 day.. I'm not saying Dallas wouldn't keep it within 15.5 because I think they do but I'm just saying that Cleveland at home as the favourite maybe a better tease than a road team to keep it close on the road. Good luck anyways..

google99 · 03-29-09, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by google99

Dirk Nowitzki points +4.5-120
Lebron James points -4.5 110

i think Dirk will have a better chance to score more points than James in this game.

well assuming Kidd is playing

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 11:37 AM

johnnymapalo
thx... I mean lets hope that dal, ind and bos do what they should do bc if one of them does not... my teaser is

.... and as said b4... Cle will rest some players at the end and allow dal to keep it close, at least for this teaser....

but I like that under a lot... and I am not a totals player...

GL to you too

shoebox · 03-29-09, 11:38 AM

Goin big today

There's not many gifts in this thing of ours but I can't see how this teaser can't hit so I'm making my biggest play of bb season
Lou-1.5, unc-2 X10 ---comes down to a -110 bet

Also on sac +5
no +2

Gl everyone let's have a good day

Odraca · 03-29-09, 11:40 AM

Does anyone else like ATL to beat, or at least cover the number at home vs the lakers today? they have lost 3 of their last 4 and 2 tough games at home, so they will be out for blood to keep their fans interested, I feel like lakers are getting ready for playoffs, but this is the last game on a 6 game road trip, so how motivated are they really?

ATL +4

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 11:49 AM

shoebox
that teaser really looks tempting... I might have to put some change on it too....hell I will do it... I mean the only thing they have to do here is to win...
just checked with my book...its -120 for me...

GL

Odraca
its true what you said... lakers at the end of a long roadie here ... so you would expect that they are tired...but I just have the feeling they will come out hot again and win the 1st qtr... maybe they will let the Hawks back in, I mean they probably will... but I just have the feeling whenever the Lakers wanted to make a run on this road trip they were able to do it... and yes ATL lost to Bos, SA and Cle as of late... so all very good teams... and the lakers are right in that category too... for me its lakers 1st qtr... and maybe a half time play on the hawks if they are down by a lot... but I just dont feel comfortable with ATL or the Lakers for the whole game... could go either way...

my play 1st qtr lakers...

GL

Dexter · 03-29-09, 12:00 PM

so much smack talking all over this forum, but no one starts a daily thread to discuss picks anymore?

why is that? why is everything now challenge related, and smack talking?

suckatmyjob · 03-29-09, 12:02 PM

again SHOE loving your play like yesterday

so best of luck to you I need both teams to advance for my bracket!!!

best of luck

dex,

everyone has a big head and lots of big egos

cocknocker · 03-29-09, 12:03 PM

I don't know Dex. But what i do know is that the Hornets+2 or more is the best bet on the board today, regardless of the suspensons, players out, etc. Ginobili will mess up the team chemistry somewhat

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 12:05 PM

dexter

this is the daily thread... and I try to speak about the plays only... and all the guys with challenges... we have one common enemy and we all know who it is... I am not saying a challenge couldnt be fun, but every idiot wants a challenge against ck...

anyway what do you think about todays games dexter... ?

GL

Dexter · 03-29-09, 12:11 PM

ha - you put saturday in the subject line peter.

anyway, im playing the kings (suns on 4th game in 5 nights off an OT game in Utah) and also playing the celts as i feel they start to roll into the playoffs, while the thunder seem to have lost that ats magic.

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 12:16 PM

dexter... yeah I know and I am sorry... see post 7... sorry again...

GL with your picks... with you on the celts..

africanroller · 03-29-09, 12:33 PM

Dex just keep winning money bro. I would rather have money in my pocket then a message board championship haha.

CashIn · 03-29-09, 12:38 PM

Cavs 2H should be nice

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 12:43 PM

hey they should slow down a bit... not another 50 pt qtr please...

just booked lakers -1 1st qtr...

GL

Magic62 · 03-29-09, 01:06 PM

First would like to thank you all for sharing your thoughts ,i have been following and reading for quite some time and appreciate the input some of you took the time to put in here.

my next Q is ,how for the life of you could any of you back the kings?
PHO must win if they still hoping to get close to play off ticket considering and assuming Dallas lose today and they have a chance to get a bit closer?i know PHO sucks in covering most times and playing several nights in a row but Kings beaten by Memphis at home after 4 days rest by 20+

??if PHO doesnt win tonight then when are they gonna win?

peterpan19 · 03-29-09, 01:14 PM

magic62

pho wont make it to the playoffs... hell and the kings are 7-3 ATS at home vs Pho... Pho is on b2b plus its the third road game plus 4th game in 5 nights.. plus OT last night...I also think most people are on Pho and the line dropped ?... just a few thoughts for you

GL