JayOne's NBA picks - Unconventional system but worth a look

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  • JayOne
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-18-13
    • 227

    #1
    JayOne's NBA picks - Unconventional system but worth a look
    All,

    First of all thank you for opening this page and giving it a read.

    It has been a few years since I have gotten on this website. I was a bit embarrassed to come back - I previously tried to post picks and failed miserably after a few days - I chose teams off feel and ultimately my picks fell apart and I couldn't keep up with a consistent thread. However, after spending time elsewhere I have determined this is one of the best online basketball communities to be a part of.

    As a student of the game my entire life I have been actively researching and constructing a model since 2012 to attain measurable results through intelligent and structured wagers. I plan on sharing these picks, however I will not get into what data goes into the picks.

    A little about me - I am a former collegiate baseball player turned working man and I have a great passion for baseball, my wagering career began through baseball and I have seen a great amount of success in the sport. However, I love the NBA and see it as a market which can be inefficient and taken advantage of. My baseball background has me ingrained to focus on winning percentages and moneylines - which I know is unconventional to those on here who only bet spreads or over / unders but I am telling you it is worth a try. Follow my precise picks and you will see the effects of moneylines in the NBA.

    A little about my system - I will ONLY play money lines an spreads. I do not take overs / unders. In addition, the spreads I take will MOSTLY be underdogs and the moneylines will ONLY be favorites. The time and testing has gone into building this system and I know it works, however it will slump just like any other. If it gets off to a slow start it will rebound.

    Enough about me. Let's get to the picks. Happy NBA SEASON and good luck to all !
  • JayOne
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-18-13
    • 227

    #2
    11/19/2014

    Tonight's picks

    Dallas ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Clippers ML -195
    $195 to win $100

    Phoenix ML -145
    $145 to win $100

    Philadelphia 76ers Spread +6
    $110 to win $100
    Comment
    • radostin.dimi
      SBR High Roller
      • 10-11-12
      • 226

      #3
      Good luck!
      Comment
      • JayOne
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-18-13
        • 227

        #4
        3-1 on day 1.

        Dallas ML -140
        $140 to win $100

        Clippers ML -195
        $195 to win $100

        Phoenix ML -145
        $145 to win $100


        Philadelphia 76ers Spread +6
        $110 to win $100


        Tonight: 3-1 +$190

        Overall: 3-1 +$190
        Comment
        • JayOne
          SBR High Roller
          • 02-18-13
          • 227

          #5
          11/20/2014

          back with 1 play tonight

          Tonight's Picks

          Clippers ML -160
          $160 to win $100
          Comment
          • incomeraise
            SBR MVP
            • 11-28-09
            • 1136

            #6
            Did you backtest the system for previous seasons... What was the results
            Comment
            • JayOne
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-18-13
              • 227

              #7
              Originally posted by incomeraise
              Did you backtest the system for previous seasons... What was the results
              Yes the system is back tested and has been constantly evolving since its inception in 2012. I am unsure of the exact results of the latest iteration but historically it is around 57%. I hate to post things like previous record and percentages because I feel the community has a tendency to latch onto those types of metrics.
              Comment
              • JayOne
                SBR High Roller
                • 02-18-13
                • 227

                #8
                1-0 last night

                Clippers ML -160
                $160 to win $100

                Overall: 4-1 +$290 (2.9u)
                Comment
                • JayOne
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 02-18-13
                  • 227

                  #9
                  Great day for some NBA boys. Lot of action tonight. Will be back with 6-8 plays later.
                  Comment
                  • incomeraise
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-28-09
                    • 1136

                    #10
                    It makes sense but I was just wondering because you are saying you do bet on Ml for favorites.. So I was more concerned in terms of units won than the actual percentage (if you bet on favorite,I don't know exactly what percentage you need to stay in the green, but I know it will be more than 50%depending on the line and how often you play them)
                    Comment
                    • JayOne
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-18-13
                      • 227

                      #11
                      Originally posted by incomeraise
                      It makes sense but I was just wondering because you are saying you do bet on Ml for favorites.. So I was more concerned in terms of units won than the actual percentage (if you bet on favorite,I don't know exactly what percentage you need to stay in the green, but I know it will be more than 50%depending on the line and how often you play them)

                      I completely understand and was going to address this when I said 57% because it can be very misleading showing percentages with moneylines to people who are very concerned with spreads and overs / unders which are all priced around -110.

                      I think that I can provide a consistent return of nearly 1 unit to every 10 plays, and that is moneyline adjusted so it is roughly 90 plays into the season and I am up ~9u (or $900 in my case). That said, I am just answering the question at hand. I do not want to make claims that other readers hold me accountable to. This is not recorded success on this website, it is recorded offline, my record is 4-1 and +2.9u since posting here.
                      Comment
                      • JayOne
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-18-13
                        • 227

                        #12
                        To clarify, those stats are always betting to win 1u each game.

                        And to put in perspective, if you were 51-39 through 90 plays (57%) always taking spreads 1.1u to win 1u per game, you would be up +8.1u

                        so comparable results per play when looking at the percentages
                        Comment
                        • JayOne
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 02-18-13
                          • 227

                          #13
                          11/21/2014

                          Tonight's picks

                          Cleveland ML -122
                          $122 to win $100

                          Minnesota Spread +10
                          $110 to win $100

                          New Orleans ML -140
                          $140 to win $100

                          Few more to come closer to game time
                          Comment
                          • JayOne
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 02-18-13
                            • 227

                            #14
                            Adding:

                            PHI spread +9.5
                            $110 to win $100

                            Charlotte ML -175
                            $175 to win $100

                            Lakers Spread +10.5
                            $110 to win 100
                            Comment
                            • keel44
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-01-09
                              • 3363

                              #15
                              All wrong....I've been there.
                              Comment
                              • JayOne
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-18-13
                                • 227

                                #16
                                well that was ugly...took a day to get over it and back it it tomorrow

                                Results from Friday. 0-6


                                Cleveland ML -122
                                $122 to win $100

                                Minnesota Spread +10
                                $110 to win $100

                                New Orleans ML -140
                                $140 to win $100

                                PHI spread +9.5
                                $110 to win $100

                                Charlotte ML -175
                                $175 to win $100

                                Lakers Spread +10.5
                                $110 to win 100

                                Overall: 4-7 -$475


                                Back at it tomorrow.
                                Comment
                                • JayOne
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-18-13
                                  • 227

                                  #17
                                  Aright. Back to work and back on the horse.

                                  11/24/2014

                                  Orlando spread +9
                                  $110 to win $100

                                  Philadelphia spread +13
                                  $110 to win $100

                                  Phoenix spread +5
                                  $110 to win $100

                                  Indiana spread +14
                                  $110 to win $100

                                  Chicago ML -150
                                  $150 to win $100
                                  Comment
                                  • JayOne
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 02-18-13
                                    • 227

                                    #18
                                    Back on track...

                                    Orlando spread +9
                                    $110 to win $100

                                    Philadelphia spread +13
                                    $110 to win $100

                                    Phoenix spread +5
                                    $110 to win $100

                                    Indiana spread +14
                                    $110 to win $100

                                    Chicago ML -150
                                    $150 to win $100

                                    4-1 on the night.


                                    Overall: 8-8 -$187 (-1.87u)
                                    Comment
                                    • JayOne
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 02-18-13
                                      • 227

                                      #19
                                      11/25/2014

                                      Washington ML -175
                                      $175 to win $100

                                      Miami spread +7
                                      $110 to win $100

                                      Milwaukee ML -150
                                      $150 to win $100
                                      Comment
                                      • JayOne
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-18-13
                                        • 227

                                        #20
                                        Washington ML -175
                                        $175 to win $100

                                        Miami spread +7
                                        $110 to win $100


                                        Milwaukee ML -150
                                        $150 to win $100


                                        Overall: 9-10 -$272
                                        Comment
                                        • JayOne
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-18-13
                                          • 227

                                          #21
                                          Tonight
                                          11/28/2014

                                          Charlotte +8.5
                                          $110 to win $100

                                          LA Clipper ML -165
                                          $165 to win $100
                                          Comment
                                          • Marooner
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 05-20-13
                                            • 225

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by JayOne
                                            Washington ML -175
                                            $175 to win $100

                                            Miami spread +7
                                            $110 to win $100


                                            Milwaukee ML -150
                                            $150 to win $100


                                            Overall: 9-10 -$272
                                            sorry bro, but -187 + -185= -372
                                            Comment
                                            • JayOne
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 02-18-13
                                              • 227

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Marooner
                                              sorry bro, but -187 + -185= -372
                                              honest mistake, the w/l are clearly laid out - no intention of incorrect math
                                              Comment
                                              • JayOne
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 02-18-13
                                                • 227

                                                #24
                                                2-0 night.

                                                Charlotte +8.5
                                                $110 to win $100

                                                LA Clipper ML -165
                                                $165 to win $100

                                                Overall: 11-10
                                                -$172 (-1.72u)
                                                Comment
                                                • JayOne
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 02-18-13
                                                  • 227

                                                  #25
                                                  11/30/2014

                                                  Boston +7.5
                                                  $110 to win $100

                                                  more to come later
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JayOne
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 02-18-13
                                                    • 227

                                                    #26
                                                    11/30/2014

                                                    Chicago Bulls ML -140
                                                    $140 to win $100

                                                    more to come later
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JayOne
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 02-18-13
                                                      • 227

                                                      #27
                                                      11/30/2014

                                                      Detroit +8
                                                      $110 to win $100

                                                      More to come
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JayOne
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 02-18-13
                                                        • 227

                                                        #28
                                                        11/30/2014

                                                        Memphis ML -165
                                                        $165 to win 100

                                                        Heat ML -160
                                                        $160 to win $100
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JayOne
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 02-18-13
                                                          • 227

                                                          #29
                                                          3-2 tonight

                                                          Boston +7.5
                                                          $110 to win $100


                                                          Chicago Bulls ML -140
                                                          $140 to win $100

                                                          Detroit +8
                                                          $110 to win $100


                                                          Memphis ML -165
                                                          $165 to win 100

                                                          Heat ML -160
                                                          $160 to win $100

                                                          Overall: 14-12 -$92 (-0.92u)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JayOne
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-18-13
                                                            • 227

                                                            #30
                                                            12/1/2014

                                                            Philadelphia +11.5
                                                            $110 to win 100

                                                            Denver ML -140
                                                            $140 to win $100
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JayOne
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 02-18-13
                                                              • 227

                                                              #31
                                                              2-0 last night. Another positive night, and finally fully recovered from that disaster of a night last week.

                                                              Philadelphia +11.5
                                                              $110 to win 100

                                                              Denver ML -140
                                                              $140 to win $100

                                                              Overall: 16-12 +$108 (+1.08u)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JayOne
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 02-18-13
                                                                • 227

                                                                #32
                                                                Looking for a big night. Need the road teams to come out firing.

                                                                12/2/2014

                                                                Brooklyn -1
                                                                $110 to win $100

                                                                OKC ML -155
                                                                $155 to win $100

                                                                Portland ML -145
                                                                $145 to win $100

                                                                Orlando +11.5
                                                                $110 to win $100
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JayOne
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 02-18-13
                                                                  • 227

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Another winning night in the books. 3-1.

                                                                  Brooklyn -1
                                                                  $110 to win $100

                                                                  OKC ML -155
                                                                  $155 to win $100


                                                                  Portland ML -145
                                                                  $145 to win $100

                                                                  Orlando +11.5
                                                                  $110 to win $100

                                                                  Overall: 19-13 +$253 (+2.53u)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JayOne
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 02-18-13
                                                                    • 227

                                                                    #34
                                                                    12/3/2014

                                                                    Orlando +15
                                                                    $110 to win $100
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JayOne
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 02-18-13
                                                                      • 227

                                                                      #35
                                                                      adding:

                                                                      Toronto ML -185
                                                                      $185 to win $100
                                                                      Comment
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