2014-15 NBA picks

**Seto** · 01-21-15, 11:52 PM

Hawks play OKC on Friday. Surely they have to lose that?

I'm sort of hoping OKC loses that game in which case they will pummel the Cavs on Sunday, but I might play them Friday too.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-15, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Hawks play OKC on Friday. Surely they have to lose that?

I don't know how many times I've started a sentence this season with "surely they...." when it comes to Atlanta and Golden State. It just never happens. Ever.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 12:20 AM

Houston's putting a lot of effort into this game.

What a bunch of losers.

**BigDofBA** · 01-22-15, 12:25 AM

I've been saying this since Harden went there.

They'll beat up in bad NBA teams in meaningless games but when have they ever eoba big game?

They can't even get out of the first round.

Howard -Soft

Harden - Gives no effort on defense. Selfish player.

Josh Smith - Lol. What needs to be said?

The Rockets got waxed by 25 at home last week and they aren't showing any pride tonight.

**BigDofBA** · 01-22-15, 12:28 AM

Lol. Josh Smith. What an embarrassment.

You're on national TV and you act like an idiot and get tossed.

Way to give up and not help your team.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 12:31 AM

This game tonight is an abomination.

They are literally playing zero defense. None.

**BigDofBA** · 01-22-15, 12:36 AM

76 point quarter.

Looks like a game at the park only these guys can shoot better. Lol.

**BigDofBA** · 01-22-15, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This game tonight is an abomination.

They are literally playing zero defense. None.

Great showcase for the league.

Howard crying and Josh Smith acting like a thug and getting ejected.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Great showcase for the league.

Howard crying and Josh Smith acting like a thug and getting ejected.

Reaffirms my opinion. I literally can't stand this team. I think this is only the second or third time I've bet on them this year; normally I avoid them like the plague because they're such posers. Should've known better.

**leetreaper** · 01-22-15, 12:53 AM

Here's my question NC: Has there ever been a winning strategy / turning profit betting against the hottest teams in any sport? Just wondering...

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Here's my question NC: Has there ever been a winning strategy / turning profit betting against the hottest teams in any sport? Just wondering...

I don't blindly fade it of course, but I love seeing trends -- especially ATS -- and going the other way.

ATS runs like Atlanta don't happen very often, if ever. I honestly don't think I've seen a team cover 20 of 21 games or whatever it's at now in six years of betting on NBA games, especially when the team isn't THAT good. I mean, we're not talking about Jordan's Bulls here.

At the same time, it's indicative of just how shitty this league is right now, and how shallow the talent pool has become. Atlanta is winning because they pass well and play team ball. Wow, in basketball? That works? Who knew. Yet in 2015, that's like an endangered species in the NBA.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 01:17 AM

Last 6 years ATS leaders in the NBA (and keep in mind most of these % are outliers; typically, anything above .600 is rare):

2013-14: Phoenix, .642 cover %
2012-13: Oklahoma City, .613
2011-12: San Antonio, .678 (best in a while)
2010-11: Memphis, .641
2009-10: Milwaukee, .650
2008-09: Cleveland, .610

Right now, Atlanta is 32-11 (.744) and Golden State is 28-12 (.700). Those numbers are completely anomalistic.

**leetreaper** · 01-22-15, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I don't blindly fade it of course, but I love seeing trends -- especially ATS -- and going the other way.

ATS runs like Atlanta don't happen very often, if ever. I honestly don't think I've seen a team cover 20 of 21 games or whatever it's at now in six years of betting on NBA games, especially when the team isn't THAT good. I mean, we're not talking about Jordan's Bulls here.

At the same time, it's indicative of just how shitty this league is right now, and how shallow the talent pool has become. Atlanta is winning because they pass well and play team ball. Wow, in basketball? That works? Who knew. Yet in 2015, that's like an endangered species in the NBA.

Originally posted by No coincidences

Last 6 years ATS leaders in the NBA (and keep in mind most of these % are outliers; typically, anything above .600 is rare):

2013-14: Phoenix, .642 cover %
2012-13: Oklahoma City, .613
2011-12: San Antonio, .678 (best in a while)
2010-11: Memphis, .641
2009-10: Milwaukee, .650
2008-09: Cleveland, .610

Right now, Atlanta is 32-11 (.744) and Golden State is 28-12 (.700). Those numbers are completely anomalistic.

Good info.

**hus7ler** · 01-22-15, 01:26 AM

NC, you are great in baseball... complete trash in basketball. I say this in hopes that you save your money for baseball season.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by hus7ler

NC, you are great in baseball... complete trash in basketball. I say this in hopes that you save your money for baseball season.

I've literally never lost money in the NBA before this season. Ever. In fact, behind baseball and the NFL, it's been my most profitable sport.

I'm sorry I can't churn out huge winners year after year without going through something like this. And I'm up big right now in college hoops. But I guess to SBR, that = "complete trash."

**Sixla** · 01-22-15, 08:39 AM

My favorite, and go to man on SBR. In all sports u got my respect. Keep it up Coiner, can't keep talent like yourself down for long!

**mlb** · 01-22-15, 09:43 AM

As much as I thought I liked this Houston team, this may have me going against them in big games.

**mlb** · 01-22-15, 09:43 AM

haha complete trash.

**NBA Maniac** · 01-22-15, 09:45 AM

No Coin when you decide to BACK Atlanta let me know, so i can FADE them.

**Jayvegas420** · 01-22-15, 01:11 PM

The .744 & .700 anomalies are calculated half way through the season.
If you are an against the streak bettor like I am, and like you claimed in the previous post, this should indicate to you that this trend will balance out by the end the season.

You're right, Atl is not a 08-09 Cavs. They are not 11-12 Spurs.
So, its doubtful that they will finish the season with percentages even close to those great teams.

Is it better to continually bet bad teams to lose ATS or is it better to continually Bet good teams to continually cover?
I don't know. It appears this year the books are giving away more paper to the backers of good teams than to the faders of poor teams.
Teams like the Sixer's are 16-24 ATS & teams like the Hawks are 32-11 ATS.

I am an against the streak bettor when u sports bet because its not like tossing a coin or a ball dropping in a wheel.
These odds & lines are conceived by other sports bettors.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Sixla

My favorite, and go to man on SBR. In all sports u got my respect. Keep it up Coiner, can't keep talent like yourself down for long!

Thanks, Six. I'm doing OK everywhere else, but the NBA is admittedly crushing me for the first time ever.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

The .744 & .700 anomalies are calculated half way through the season.
If you are an against the streak bettor like I am, and like you claimed in the previous post, this should indicate to you that this trend will balance out by the end the season.

You're right, Atl is not a 08-09 Cavs. They are not 11-12 Spurs.
So, its doubtful that they will finish the season with percentages even close to those great teams.

Is it better to continually bet bad teams to lose ATS or is it better to continually Bet good teams to continually cover?
I don't know. It appears this year the books are giving away more paper to the backers of good teams than to the faders of poor teams.
Teams like the Sixer's are 16-24 ATS & teams like the Hawks are 32-11 ATS.

I am an against the streak bettor when u sports bet because its not like tossing a coin or a ball dropping in a wheel.
These odds & lines are conceived by other sports bettors.

Vegas usually makes this correction rather quickly when it comes to trends either for or against. I am shocked that Atlanta has now covered in 21 of its last 22 games now or whatever it is. A streak like that in the past was unheard of. For some reason, books aren't adjusting to this hot streak and apparently aren't going to. Surprised they've let them become a cash cow/ATM machine for the public for a full month straight now, but it is what it is and that's why I'm down big in the NBA. Atlanta, in this season alone, has destroyed me like no other team since I started gambling. The numbers I've accumulated fading them -- all the way back to when this run started -- basically look exaggerated for effect. They aren't.

**mlb** · 01-22-15, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Vegas usually makes this correction rather quickly when it comes to trends either for or against. I am shocked that Atlanta has now covered in 21 of its last 22 games now or whatever it is. A streak like that in the past was unheard of. For some reason, books aren't adjusting to this hot streak and apparently aren't going to. Surprised they've let them become a cash cow/ATM machine for the public for a full month straight now, but it is what it is and that's why I'm down big in the NBA. Atlanta, in this season alone, has destroyed me like no other team since I started gambling. The numbers I've accumulated fading them -- all the way back to when this run started -- basically look exaggerated for effect. They aren't.

What about the theory that they feel they don't have to adjust the lines despite them covering in 21 of 22 because they are the Atlanta Hawks and not the LA Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, etc.

From what I am gathering is that there are a lot of people who are fading these guys thinking they are going to fade at some point. Does Vegas feel that enough are fading them every game and the average person isn't pounding them during this win streak. If that is the case, Leet has it figured out. Because even during Miami's 33 game win streak last year they weren't covering every night because their spreads were so high.

Maybe I'm way off but the Hawks are not your prototypical "public premium" team.

**Sixla** · 01-22-15, 04:09 PM

What u think about Bulls +6 Coin? I know Spurs are healthy and playing well and Bulls the opposite. Rose went off on the team and wondering if they show up tonight and keep it a couple possession game?

**Jayvegas420** · 01-22-15, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by mlb

What about the theory that they feel they don't have to adjust the lines despite them covering in 21 of 22 because they are the Atlanta Hawks and not the LA Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, etc.

From what I am gathering is that there are a lot of people who are fading these guys thinking they are going to fade at some point. Does Vegas feel that enough are fading them every game and the average person isn't pounding them during this win streak. If that is the case, Leet has it figured out. Because even during Miami's 33 game win streak last year they weren't covering every night because their spreads were so high.

Maybe I'm way off but the Hawks are not your prototypical "public premium" team.

I agree. Vegas does not appear to be aggressive inflating the Hawks lines. Tomorrow night is a perfect example as they are only -3 at home.

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 11:31 PM

BOS +7.5 live (3.3U to win 3)

**No coincidences** · 01-22-15, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by mlb

What about the theory that they feel they don't have to adjust the lines despite them covering in 21 of 22 because they are the Atlanta Hawks and not the LA Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, etc.

From what I am gathering is that there are a lot of people who are fading these guys thinking they are going to fade at some point. Does Vegas feel that enough are fading them every game and the average person isn't pounding them during this win streak. If that is the case, Leet has it figured out. Because even during Miami's 33 game win streak last year they weren't covering every night because their spreads were so high.

Maybe I'm way off but the Hawks are not your prototypical "public premium" team.

Yeah, good points, MLB.

Originally posted by Sixla

What u think about Bulls +6 Coin? I know Spurs are healthy and playing well and Bulls the opposite. Rose went off on the team and wondering if they show up tonight and keep it a couple possession game?

Hope you hit it, Six. Was out earlier and didn't get a chance to bet it. Figures.

**Jayvegas420** · 01-23-15, 12:48 AM

Well done on the Celts.

**NittanyLionsFan** · 01-23-15, 02:35 AM

magic -2.5 right nc? i'm going to game so gotta degen it.

**No coincidences** · 01-23-15, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by NittanyLionsFan

magic -2.5 right nc? i'm going to game so gotta degen it.

Magic or nothing. I'm passing.

CHA +10.5 (3.24U to win 3)

**oldscho0led** · 01-23-15, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Magic or nothing. I'm passing.

CHA +10.5 (3.24U to win 3)

On Hornets too. And they decided to start like sh*t. SMFH

**No coincidences** · 01-23-15, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by oldscho0led

On Hornets too. And they decided to start like sh*t. SMFH

Will this shitstorm ever end?

DAL -5 (3.3U to win 3)

**red12sox** · 01-23-15, 08:09 PM

Hornets did this to me the last time they were in Cleveland and somehow covered. Fingers crossed it happens again!

**oldscho0led** · 01-23-15, 08:12 PM

Funny things is Hornets should be playing with revenge here as the Cavs have already beat them twice in the season. Going with Dallas also. Thinking Nuggets also.

**Jayvegas420** · 01-23-15, 08:32 PM

I like Dallas a lot more than Denver.
I also like the over.
GL