Peep's Champ and Mafia Leans for Friday 03/27/2009

[pho3nix32]

Many nice games tomorrow...let's post some winners in this thread!

I'm going to try cap a game tomorrow to see if my funk is over. Tail at your own risk.

line: okc@tr 201
pick: 201 over

Both teams are already out of playoff contention so the theme of the game tomorrow is F-U-N. We all know its not fun playing defense. We can expect a lot of scoring tomorrow my friends. Adding to this speculation of course is a statline wherein h2h, the over is 6-1 in meeting in Toronto. I expect to see non-stop hoop exchanging tomorrow my friends.

[King_Bookie]

I seem to lose everytime I bet small -_-

Will post my one pick later.

[pho3nix32]

I seem to lose everytime I bet small -_-

Will post my one pick later.

congrats on that "all in" although not advisable i guess you eat danger for breakfast

[NBA Hero]

if you lose on your all in, does that mean you are done for the rest of the season like amare?

or you will be back at playoff like A. Bynum for playoff or sooner.

your percentage is not that bad

[King_Bookie]

if you lose on your all in, does that mean you are done for the rest of the season like amare?

or you will be back at playoff like A. Bynum for playoff or sooner.

your percentage is not that bad

Any moment I lose an all-in I'll check in at the hospital for a major surgery to repair my torn wallet. I won't be back for the playoffs but I'll be back for the finals.

My percentage might not be bad but it ain't good enough to bring in money (I never won even once after winning a good bet).

Anyways, I only have one pick for now, and they better damn cover:


CHA @ PHI -> CHA+6

Two reasons why I pick this team to cover (and maybe even win): One -> Charlotte is reeling from a loss from the Wizards who came off a virtual defeat to win by 2 points at the MCI center; expect the Cats to explode tonight with matchup problems for Philly. No one in Philly can counter the 1-2 punch combo of Diaw and Okafor and Igoudala and Andre will have problems with Bell and Wallace.
Two -> Health and Trends. The Bobcats are PERFECTLY healthy this game. No injuries, Nada. And they are also noted for playing well even with few days of rests and b2bs. Again like in the minny game, I see no favoring trend for Philly other than the fact that they beat the Lakers(which ain't no trend). Oh, Charlotte is 0-4 ats in the last meetings in Philly... who cares, then make it 1-4

[stakagrp]

So far I'm thinking:

Cleveland under 190 because most games played between these two ball clubs have gone under the mark. Minny doesn't really have any offense that can put up the points against Clevelands defense at home. The only thing that can mess things up is the total lack of defense by Minny because they have nothing to play for.

San Antonio over 191. This is the highest total set for the two dating back to 2004. Clippers healthy lineup might add a few extra points and their horrid defense will give up points to the Spurs. Spurs score more at home and I believe that Ginobli should be playing. This will spark the crowd and juice up the Spurs offense a bit more.

New Orleans -5. The Knicks have been playing horrible losing close games and big leads. They're on a six game losing streak and covering in only 3. New Orleans looks to bounce back after losing to Denver at home and they own the Knicks at MSG. Another factor is that New Orleans will look to pay back for the loss that the Knicks handed to them at NO home.

New Orleans under 207. Lately New Orleans have been playing a lot of games under the total. Their defense has stepped up and they're playing that half court game. They're not going to play into New York's run and gun style and will try to control the tempo as best as they can.

Hard to pick sides with all the huge spreads and some of these teams are playing better than expected lately such as Tor, Clips, and Okc. They're still garbage but I can't figure out whether it will be one of their good days or not. Charlotte +5.5 looks good for now. None of these picks are official. Let me know what you guys think of these plays!

[King_Bookie]

I'm warning you on New York. They tend to cover games when given a 3.0-6.0 spread.

good luck on your play though. hope thi knicks play as the knicks.

[stakagrp]

Thanks for the warning on NYK. That game kind of scares me because of the long losing streak with NY. Afraid they might come out fighting hard, but this team is so inconsistent. I might take NY for first half depending on what the line comes out later and use NO moneyline for a parlay. I use a local book that goes by WSEX lines at 2pm Pacific time and thats the lines I gotta go by. Gotta play by his rules and cannot bet online in the state of Washington.

[Jimbo42]

Allright boys.... happy friday, here are the games that are peaking my interest:

DALLAS - pts (possibly around -2) vs. Denver...It'll catch up to the Nuggs tonight.
SACRAMENTO -3.5 vs. Memphis... WELL rested Kings should handle the Grizz.. Last time the Kings had a full 4 days off they beat Denver..

[peterpan19]

Orl -12
I smell blowout here today even after a close win against Bos... even if I have to against the Bos hex today... they blew them away last week in Mil by 26 pts...they are 4-2 ATS... its time for a blowout...

Phi -5.5
more like a guts play here...Phi is hot and Char is not...Phi is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU at home against the Bobcats...

Tor/OKC Over 201
normally I dont play totals... but this one is too good to pass by... the over is 4-1 in Tor...i dont know how we will see any D today in that game... it will be running and gunning all game long...over it is

Min +14
just one comment... Cle cant close or better does not want to close games right now... they let the other team team hang around and rest starters or whatever...

slight leans: SA, NO (but no playing, since I wont touch another Knicks game this year)
waiting for the line: LAL, ATL, DAL

GL

[joanapoker]

Many nice games tomorrow...let's post some winners in this thread!

I'm going to try cap a game tomorrow to see if my funk is over. Tail at your own risk.

line: mt@tr 201
pick: 201 over

I guess u mean OKC@TOR


not mt!!

[joanapoker]

My picks

MIL +12
TOR -5.5
PHI -5.5

[tommyminh]

dan i thought im the early person, but pplz early then me

[tommyminh]

Thanks for the warning on NYK. That game kind of scares me because of the long losing streak with NY. Afraid they might come out fighting hard, but this team is so inconsistent. I might take NY for first half depending on what the line comes out later and use NO moneyline for a parlay. I use a local book that goes by WSEX lines at 2pm Pacific time and thats the lines I gotta go by. Gotta play by his rules and cannot bet online in the state of Washington.

i didnt notice that state rule no gambling, i was alway thought ever state allow gambling

[dennisback]

no way the OKC game goes over!! last 8 games it stayed under everytime. even vs lakers the total was 197 or sth only.

[peterpan19]

dennisback

well the under is 12-3 in the last 15 games OKC played...

[Dexter]

didnt have time to mention yesterday, but the bulls were a 4 game in 5 night angle winner (vs heat) which brought the yearly record of those spots to 26-22. still several left to hopefully get the % up and give me the confidence to go extra large on them in 2009/2010.

[peterpan19]

adding the Spurs -10 (1 point buy)
spurs are 5-0 SU against the Clipps... and that should continue today...only 2-3 ATS, but normally the spread is much higher for a game in SA, thats the only thing that worries me a bit... both teams come of an surprising W, both are rested but that will be the Clips 5th road game... so I expect SA to win by 14 points today... yes they had a close game against the Warriors and 2 tough losses against Boston and Houston as of late, but hell its the clips playing their 5th road game today...SA ATS record of -10 and more at home is not stellar at 5-4, but the clips record on the road (and 10+) is 5-9 (1-5 the last 6)... and after that emotional OT win against the Knicks, I have to expect a letwdon today by the Clips...

plays so far:
Orl -12
Min +14
SA -10 (1 point buy)

on the bubble: Phi -5.5 and Over 201 Tor/OKC

GL

[NBA Hero]

tor looks ready to win back to back after.... a gazillion years.

sac-2.5 looks like il finally put something on the kings this season

[repski]

Nova...

[repski]

Memphis/Sac over

-Sac has gone OVER 4 of their last 5 home games.
-Sac has gone OVER 5 oftheir last 6 home games vs. the Grizzlies.
-Memphis is 8-0 OVER their last 8 games as road dogs of 4.5 or less points
-Memphis has gone OVER six of their last 7 vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%.
-The Grizzlies are 4-1 OVER when playing with three or more days of rest.
-Sacramento is 10-2 OVER their last 12 games off a double digit home loss

[abev]

So far I'm thinking:
New Orleans under 207. Lately New Orleans have been playing a lot of games under the total. Their defense has stepped up and they're playing that half court game. They're not going to play into New York's run and gun style and will try to control the tempo as best as they can.

I want to believe you on this, but are the Knicks ever under? Knicks are 0 for their last 4 at home averaging 105pf and 120pa during those 4 games. I don't know what to think.

[repski]

'Cuse ML

-Syracuse has covered in 9 of their last 10 ATS.
-Syracuse is 9-3 ATS vs Big 12
-'Cuse has covered 5 of their last 6 on a neutral court
-Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS against the Big East,
-Okla is 9-19 ATS in neutral-site games
-Sooners are 2-5 ATS vs teams with a winning record.

* no LDK tail pick

Uh oh...Jim Feist GOY...Cuse

[Dexter]

plays for tonight:

lakers
hornets
spurs

[suckatmyjob]

repski,

i hope today is one of those days in college bball that one saturday when everything we agreed on won

[FORMULA FORTE]

plays for tonight:

phi
min

[repski]

Pucks Play

Ducks -160

-Edmonton has lost three straightoutscored by 9-4
-Anaheim has won five straight outscoring opponents 22-10.

-Edmonton is playing third game in four nights.

[repski]

Whacky Tournament System Play...
"Teams off back to back ATS wins in the Tournament have covered just 33 percent of the time vs. foes off a Tourney win and back to back ATS losses.".....21-5 ATS since 1991..

Zags fit the criteria tonight..

[dennisback]

Oklahoma City
Under is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 8-0 in Thunder last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.

im taking okc under yet again!

[trilfer]

Whacky Tournament System Play...
"Teams off back to back ATS wins in the Tournament have covered just 33 percent of the time vs. foes off a Tourney win and back to back ATS losses.".....21-5 ATS since 1991..

Zags fit the criteria tonight..

repski,

louisville fits the criteria too

[Pajda]

Teaser for today

Orlando Magic -2

Cleveland Cavaliers -4

San Antonio Spurs -1½

Kansas +12

[peterpan19]

final plays booked: (only going with the 3 strongest games, dropped Phi and the over Okc)
Orl -12
Min +14
SA -10 (point buy)
1st qtr: Lakers -2, Tor -1.5, Sac Under 52

and Bos looks tempting too ... maybe the one game i add later on...

also playing Arizona +9 or more by gametime tonight small

GL everybody

I am out now, hope to be back by 7pm EST

[tommyminh]

wow ck not on yet

[peterpan19]

tommyminh

he is... just posted that he is on char, tor and gonzaga tonight over in the challenge thread....

GL

[repski]

repski,

louisville fits the criteria too