Leans for Friday 03/20/09

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 02:58 AM

too many good games, but very tricky spreads. I'll post my picks later after I read the games.

pho3nix32 · 03-20-09, 03:07 AM

nice job king, you've been providing good input in our thread. thank you.

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 05:05 AM

I've read some of the games and here are my early leans:

UTA @ OKC -> OKC +5 / UNDER 200

Chicago broke the boston hex won a relatively tight game against Oklahoma a few days ago so expect the Oklahoma to present something refreshing to the growing home crowd (attendance has been steadily growing as the season progressed). OKC is also known to be very tough at home, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. Utah, while scorching at home, is very different in the road as they currently have 13-20 SU at the road despite being a Western Conference contender. Utah might have a 4-1 ATS advantage in the last 5 as a road favorite but they have been 0-4 ATS in the past 4 games overall. People might say Utah is due for an ATS win but I strongly believe that Durant, Westbrook, and Green won't allow that to happen in their home turf. I see OKC winning 92 - 87

PHI @ GS -> GS+1(Heavy) / Over 225

What were the linemakers thinking by giving by giving Golden State +1??? GS played a tough game today against the Lakers and showed that even as a bad road team they can still play ball with the best (although LA has been very bad at home lately, going 0-3 ATS in the last 3 home games). As they return to Golden State, a rested Phialdelphia awaits them. The logical pick may go to Philly, but I see no strong trend to actually bet for them(1-6 ATS in the last 7 againt West Conf.). GS on the other hand, is catching fire by going 5-1 ATS in the last 6 overall (losing to the high octane Phoenix team). 225 is a very low spread at Golden State. Philadelphia may be a defensive team but I'm sure they'll be forced into a shootout with the way GS is going to play(5-1 Over in the last 6). I see GS winning either a squeaker or a blowout, depending on how Philadelphia plays them.

CHA @ TOR -> TOR -1(risk play) / Over 195

I've noticed a few weeks ago Toronto might be one of the better "revenge" teams in the league. They're 4-0 ATS when regarded as a favorite. At first I was screaming "CHARLOTTE HEAVY DAMMIT" when I saw the spread because Charlotte is playing for playoff contention while toronto is playing for lottery. However, I get a strong feeling that toronto will BLOW OUT Charlotte today. Most of you guys will probably fade this play, but let me remind you about a back to back game between the Raptors and the Knicks. When Toronto went to New York, they got blown out by thirty. After two days Toronto hosted NY and returned the favor. This time, when Toronto went to Charlotte they got blown out...... this time... you do the math

MIN @ HOU -> MIN +12 / Under 193

These are two teams who are allergic when it comes to scoring 100+ points so expect them to play D all night long. Houston knows Minnie's number, winning the last 7 meetings(Impressive) and has beaten them mostly by 10 points or more. But I don't think I can follow this trend anymore. Minnessota is one of the few, and maybe the only one, whose road win percentage is actually better than at home. Despite losing the past few games, Minnesota has been playing great in the road, losing by less than 10 points against highly strong home teams in New Orleans, San Antonio and Portland (LA blew them out, but it was Staples Center

). Kevin Love has also recently fell in love with double doubles, having them against NO and SA at that. I strongly expect Houston to win but Love will prevail and keep it close. (lame love jokes, I know)

WAS @ DEN -> I HIGHLY RECOMMEND NOT BETTING THIS PLAY

Denver almost fukked me out when they played a close game against the Nets a few days ago before blowing them out in the 4th. Memphis was actually destroying Denver before they caught up and squeaked a weak-ass victory against a lottery bound team. Washington.....Oh God where do I start, how do you get blown out by 20 points in less than 4 minutes, and by the CLIPPERS?! Either way, your bets will be in jeopardy and once the game starts, expect a 48 minute long heavy perspiration in your balls.

MEM @ NO -> MEM+12 / Under 188

NO has followed the trend of the Lakers where they play down to the level of the competition and let them catch up in the fourth. CP3 and his homies pulled a close one against Minnesota just a while back so if I was Byron Scott I'd be pretty pissed about the performance there. In the last 7 games, Memphis was defeated by 12 points or more only once (against Minnesota of all teams, wtf) and they have played a very tight game against Denver (in which they led by more than 15 points and one point) and even won against Detroit at the end of their road trip, at that. Again, I see New Orleans winning but may turn out to become a low scoring game that garnering a 12+ point lead over a young surging team may be tough for NO.

joanapoker · 03-20-09, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

too many good games, but very tricky spreads. I'll post my picks later after I read the games.

I do you say u went 3-0 yesterday if u miss all ur total picks??
Souldn't be 3-3?

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 05:32 AM

No, Joana. I post my leans (including under/over) but I only bet on teams, not parlays and under/over. Before game time, you can see the teams that I placed my money on my sig, and maybe some people can attest to that(sucks if no one does

).

When I started posting here I also said that I don't bet anymore for NCAAB and Under/Over because of the huge money that I lost betting for them.

EDIT: If you were referring to this post of mine in this day's thread(thursday),

Originally posted by King_Bookie

Hmm.... after a relatively easy night for me, tomorrow's game looks a bit tough. Dallas has defeated some quality teams on the road but has a bad reputation of sputtering road games. GS has a nice +13 advantage over the lakers and with the way the lakers are playing now, I won't be surprised if GS wins a squeaker. Cleveland looks to extend its devastating home streak in the NBA but 9.5 is a bit too much for the blazers. I'll post my analysis later. 233.5 is achievable, though a bit more difficult that yesterday when some doubters said yesterday that high noon won't happen in Phoenix against Philly.

EARLY LEANS:

DAL @ ATL -> ATL-6
POR @ CLE -> POR+9.5
GS @ LA -> GS +13

DAL @ ATL Over 196.5
POR @ CLE Under 186
GS @ LA Over 9000

They are just that, leans. This is the post where I told you guys of where I put my money on.

Originally posted by King_Bookie

I bet on:

ATL -6

1. Hot streak is due for a burn out, but they'll probably go out in a blaze of glory from a "good" road team rather than this horrible road team you call the mavs.
2. ATL Home Court = Not a good place to be on the road.
3. ATL Home Record = Blows out teams much efficiently than Lakers does.

POR +10

1. Injuries don't mean nothing in the NBA (YAO, BOGUT, REDD, IVERSON*COUGH, ETC.)
2. -10 is a bit too much for Lebron and the boys.
3. I expect this to go UNDER tonight so the lead could reach 8 at most.

GSW +13

1. Huge ass spread. I'll bet the other team if this was the Clippers.
2. I expect this to go over, so expect another shoot out from both sides.
3. Phil Jackson is furious about his team's performance and may order his team to clamp down on defense. However, Steph Jackson is returning with fresh legs and he might shoot the hell out of Staples Center which might force Kobe to trade shots with him.
4. GSW, despite being a bad team both on road and at home, have shown signs of improving. I sure damn hope it doesnt disappear tonight.

Good Luck everyone, we'll gonna need it

They are all from the same thread (Leans for thursday 3/19/09). The overall record may be recognized by some as a fake but the wins I got from those wins are pretty small (smaller than what you guys win, on the average) so it really doesnt matter if I win a lot because I'm telling you that I'm only up $200 (I'm not dirt poor but I don't have the cash to bet big, as I am pretty new in the industry).

Dexter · 03-20-09, 06:07 AM

king bookie just had 3 plays yesterday

Dexter · 03-20-09, 06:09 AM

as much as the gambler in me wants to throw 5 units on both of these plays (to make up for the cavs) i'll stick to my norm of large plays (3x) on each of the following. if you tailed me last night, my apologizes. i still stand by the play and would make the same one tomorrow if the exact scenarios presented themselves.

the pistons are in desperate need of a win as they sit on a 3 game losing streak - they played the rockets and mavs very tough on the road, and are set up to hammer the clippers back at the palace. detroit is 4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs the clips, winning all 5 by 15ppg. projected line of -11.5

-pistons (big)
_______________
the nuggets are coming off a road win in memphis in which they made a great 4qtr comeback for the win. they catch one of the worst teams in the league right now back at home - whos only chance in this one is via the back door late. denver is 3-1 ats the last 4 home games vs the wiz, winning 3 of those by an avg of 16ppg. projected line of -14

-nuggets (big)

Dexter · 03-20-09, 07:04 AM

Sat 3/21-

4th game in 5 nights for the celtics. projected line of +9

-grizzlies (big)
__________________
the blazers are coming off an OT loss to the cavs and this will be their 5th and final game of the road trip (also 5th game in 7 days). the last 5 games in milw have resulted in port wins by 2,9,1 and 2 su losses. projected line of +6.

-bucks
___________________
the wizards will be on their 4th game in 5 nights vs a rested suns team. projected line of -11.5.

-suns (big)
___________________

mehow · 03-20-09, 07:33 AM

hey, King Bookie and pho3nix32, where can I find these nice deep ats stats? do you pay for it or there are some free web sites? thanks in advance

mehow · 03-20-09, 07:37 AM

Site is not available

http://www.pointspread.com/NBA/Odds

i found it

it is very good, but maybe you know better?

so far i bet +5 oklahoma and i like it most
also +11,5 memphis
and tor -1

pho3nix32 · 03-20-09, 08:35 AM

you can click on the matchups per game here on sbr as well. you will be able to find the stats you need.

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 08:56 AM

Here are my bets:

TORONTO -1

1. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
2. Intense matchups today, expect a great game.
3. Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
4. Revenge factor is the major catalyst here in making me bet for them.

OKC -5
1. ATS monsters.
2. Utah is a different team when going on the road, and I don't expect that to change anytime before the playoffs.
3. OKC is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 as a home underdog between 5 - 10.5
4. Jazz is pretty cold in the ATS, going 0-4 in the last 4 games

MEM +11.5

1. New Orleans is a defensive minded team so this might turn into a low scoring game.
2. The playoffs are near. Byron Scott might rest his players in the 4Q after building a solid lead and enter the bench players. Plenty of opportunity for Memphis to catch up. Unlike us gamblers, their priority is to win, not blow out games.
3. Memphis has been on a roll. Defeating Detroit on the road and losing to Denver by only two points in a span of 3 games.
4. The grizzlies are fueled by a nucleus of young players headed by O.J Mayo, Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol. I sure damn hope they bring that youthful passion for the game tomorrow.

These are my final plays for tomorrow. I have confidence in these teams but not as strong as the teams i picked yesterday. Hard to cap teams that are both playing badly.

Jimbo42 · 03-20-09, 08:58 AM

What Up!,
Okay back to the NBA full slate tonight..These college games are fun but the NBA is what I really like to bet. Here are the games that I -as CK likes to say- am smokin on.
Toronto -1
New Jersey (need to check that line)
Utah -5
Golden State +1
None have been booked yet. These are the interesting plays to me. Also gonna smash em on some halftime plays tonight.
GL

BrandonLaz · 03-20-09, 09:21 AM

I only have one NBA game today as my other 4 plays are on CBB. I posted the CBB plays in Dexters thread on the NCAA forum. I had a horrible day yesterday going only 2-4 in actual bets, but only 1-4 in my posted plays.

Charlotte Bobcats (+1) vs Toronto Raptors

This is a game where the wrong team is favored and we are going to make a killing off of it. When playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season the Bobcats are an awesome 11-1 ATS, after a win by 10 points or more they are 7-3 ATS, and as a road underdog of 3 points or less this season they have yet to lose going 2-0 ATS. This is much better than the stats of their opponent today who only are 5-14 ATS second half of the season. That is including a March in which they went a horrible 1-7 ATS. Over the last 10 games the Raptors have only won twice both SU and ATS. The Bobcats are rolling going 7-3 over their last 10 games both SU and ATS. Many of the public feels Toronto will want revenge for their horrible road loss to the Bobcats 4 days ago. They might want revenge, but they are not going to get it. The Bobcats are just the much better team fighting for a playoff spot, and playing very good basketball both defensively and offensively. Rolling with the Bobcats here as they continue their late playoff charge.

Charlotte Bobcats +1 (Medium Wager)

corona · 03-20-09, 09:29 AM

and as a road underdog this season they have yet to lose going 2-0 ATS.

so the bobcats have only been the road underdog twice this season? and they haven't lost once. brilliant

NBA Hero · 03-20-09, 09:36 AM

utah will do some spanking tonight.

a good team cannot continue playing bad

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by mehow

http://www.pointspread.com/NBA/Odds

i found it

it is very good, but maybe you know better?

so far i bet +5 oklahoma and i like it most
also +11,5 memphis
and tor -1

Hey we got the same bets. Best of luck to us.

BrandonLaz · 03-20-09, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by corona

so the bobcats have only been the road underdog twice this season? and they haven't lost once. brilliant

Sorry as a road underdog of 3 points or less thanks for contributing to the forum with no picks or write-ups of your own though

Dexter · 03-20-09, 10:06 AM

didnt realize rip was banged up - forget this play..

the pistons are in desperate need of a win as they sit on a 3 game losing streak - they played the rockets and mavs very tough on the road, and are set up to hammer the clippers back at the palace. detroit is 4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs the clips, winning all 5 by 15ppg. projected line of -11.5

-pistons (big

solobass · 03-20-09, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

didnt realize rip was banged up - forget this play..

the pistons are in desperate need of a win as they sit on a 3 game losing streak - they played the rockets and mavs very tough on the road, and are set up to hammer the clippers back at the palace. detroit is 4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs the clips, winning all 5 by 15ppg. projected line of -11.5

-pistons (big

placed small ML bet on Clips +280 they are now a live dog here

solobass · 03-20-09, 10:36 AM

can anyone tell me why oklahoma st. is a 2.5 pt dog to tennessee?

peterpan19 · 03-20-09, 10:49 AM

solobass
trap game, they want you to take oklahoma state, bc they have no chance against tenn...

nba picks up in a few minutes

peterpan19 · 03-20-09, 11:43 AM

Mia -4 (if Wade plays) ... long road trip for NJ over and first home game...Mia is 5-0 ATS and su in NJ

Tor -1. small play only... 4-1 su at home vs char... risky

LAC +7.5 ... I know its the Clips, but they finally have a healthy lineup and well det played better but with all the injuries right now i think the clips have a chance to keep it close... JM (A)

Mem +12 .... hell NO is not playing great right now, pretty cold.... Mem well they might not be winning but they can keep it close and will do so today...

min +11 ... played close games as of late... hou cant win big against anyone right now...

GS +1... they own phi at home 6-1 su and ats

ok so not much of a writeup, but so far I have:
GS +1
Min +11
Mem +12
LAC +7.5
Tor -1
(mia -4)

a lot of games, but I like em all

corona · 03-20-09, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by NBA Hero

utah will do some spanking tonight.

a good team cannot continue playing bad

utah's been bad to mediocre on the road for years - its suddenly going to change now after they barely beat a trash toronto team that had lost 4 straight, handed a game to miami, and then bent over and grabbed their ankles for orlando? in fact in the last 3 years (williams/boozer era) against sub .500 teams on the road they're 23-37 ats.

meanwhile, the thunder are 13-5 ATS against .500+ teams at home this season, and 9-2 against .600+ teams. their only ATS losses were to (early season) boston and the lakers, and i'm pretty sure both are better than the jazz.

Sorry as a road underdog of 3 points or less thanks for contributing to the forum with no picks or write-ups of your own though

happy?

Dexter · 03-20-09, 12:11 PM

booked-

nuggets -13 (big)

whatisit · 03-20-09, 12:12 PM

Sorry for beginner question but..memphis/NO over under jumped 2 points? What could be some reasons for this, and if there is one, what would be teh smart play on this kind of situation?

isiah121 · 03-20-09, 02:03 PM

This game is a blowout game. The Hornets will blow out the Grizzlies by at least 12 points because previously they lost to the Grizzlies. This means that in the 4th quarter, starters will sit out while the bench players trade shots with each other all day, leading to OVER 190.

Originally posted by whatisit

Sorry for beginner question but..memphis/NO over under jumped 2 points? What could be some reasons for this, and if there is one, what would be teh smart play on this kind of situation?

The_Kid · 03-20-09, 02:12 PM

I don't understand why the Knicks are favored by this much over the Kings. With a spread of -9.5, the Knicks basically have to win by double digits. I know the Kings aren't all that great but are the Knicks THAT much better than them? Kevin Martin is supposed to return to the lineup and Al Harrington is questionable with an achilles injury. Duhon is also supposed to be reinserted into the starting lineup for the Knicks. Both teams haven't been playing great lately but the Kings are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games in New York and 7-3 SU when facing off against the Knicks. I see the line at +9.5 now but I may just buy a point to get it to +10.5. I don't really see the Knicks blowing them out. If anything, this is more of a gut play but I feel it's the right one.

dennisback · 03-20-09, 02:29 PM

kings suck ass vs east teams 0-26 su they seem to want the record 0-30

mehow · 03-20-09, 04:05 PM

the trends are strong with was-den game, so i will play -14 den, also i think i will play ind-1, they had few weak matches lastly, but they are still good at home, and dallas are playing day by day

so my plays are:
okl+5
tor -1
mem +11,5
den -14
ind -1

Good luck

showtime2000 · 03-20-09, 04:13 PM

Hey all, lookin at NHL plays for tonight. But noticed something in NBA,

Dallas @ Indiana
-Home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings
-Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana
-Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games
-Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games

Public is all over Dallas tonight, but yet Ind is favored? Dallas opened as a fav and some movement in this game now making Ind the favored.

showtime2000 · 03-20-09, 05:59 PM

NHL plays for tonight,

NY Islanders +208
Phil/Buffalo under 6

GLA

King_Bookie · 03-20-09, 06:00 PM

Indiana will open a can of Whoop Ass tonight. Indiana has Dallas' number on speed dial like Obama has Al Sharpton's?

The_Kid · 03-20-09, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by solobass

placed small ML bet on Clips +280 they are now a live dog here

Hamilton is doubtful and Stuckey is a game time decision. I got them at +8.5. Hopefully both don't play as I'd feel a lot more confident in the Clippers then.