Solobass NBA picks and handicapping.....

[solobass]

What is up everyone! I have been working diligently under the tutelage of CK and will always post there, but have started out my own thread here. Here is our mission. The NBA regular season does not have many games left. Most teams have less than 15 games to play, and the last week or so will feature more and more teams figuring out next year and coasting for draft position. There is a sense of urgency and we must capitalize now!

My handicapping is almost all math based. I would like to keep the discussion tilted that direction if possible. While a team might be 35-17 over the last 12 years in a certain spot might be relevant, one of my axioms is that trends are as likely to reverse as they are to continue.

The system I have created allows me to call a great deal of the games on the board every night. Please always use smart money management principles (do not put 100% of your roll out on my picks) and best of luck to all of us! My picks for the day will be up by 12:45.

[Dexter]

this guy is sharp fellas.

[vassman86]

Good luck solo! Show us what you got!

[solobass]

First call is on Toronto Raptors +7.5 and this is with the knowledge of Felton for the Bobs and Bargani for the Raps both as doubtful. I am booking the play right now.

Raps +7.5

[csimmalavong]

you sure those guys are doubtful ? especially bargs, he looks fine..

and yes, for some strange reason i am leaning raps also, against the public

[solobass]

you sure those guys are doubtful ? especially bargs, he looks fine..

and yes, for some strange reason i am leaning raps also, against the public

he played the 1st Q and that is about it, but i do expect Bargani to play tonight. that being said, even with a 50% contribution and Calderon returning to the fold helps the Raps cause significantly.

[solobass]

2nd play is Spurs -5 @ the thunder.......just booked it.

[shoebox]

nice solo lookin forward to what cha got

[khaliagent]

tAKE THE BOBCATS AND TRUST ME
i AM FROM TORONTO AND THEY HAVE NO ANSWERS FOR A DETERMINED BOBCAT TEAM THAT SEES AN EASY OPPORTUNITY IN THIS BLOWOUT OF A GAME

[solobass]

thanks for the support fellas, let's kill the books tonight. just finished my cap for the blazers/grizz game and booked...

Blazers -6

the line just moved from 5.5 but i still feel good about the play. much will be said about portland and their road record, but they are one of the top teams in offensive efficiency. what hurts them is their snail pace or else they would be killing people.

[solobass]

tAKE THE BOBCATS AND TRUST ME
i AM FROM TORONTO AND THEY HAVE NO ANSWERS FOR A DETERMINED BOBCAT TEAM THAT SEES AN EASY OPPORTUNITY IN THIS BLOWOUT OF A GAME

toronto is a great city and you are lucky to reside there. very clean and friendly!

what about calderon coming back, that has no effect on the raps? also it is harder for teams with such a slow pace like the bobs to blow a team out unless their opponent has a really bad shooting performance on their own.

either way one of us has to win!

[khaliagent]

Thanks solo it is beatiful here.
Bobcats may be slow but the raps may be even slow and definitely rely on shooting way too much to ever have a shot at this.
Missed shot and good shooting for bobcats is what the raps are heading for

[csimmalavong]

i am a hardcore raps fan in the GTA area as well,

and i just see some matchup problems for the cats. if okafor guards bosh, he is screwed off the bounce and especially on the pick n rolls. and dont forget about bargnani.

if one of emaka or diaw get into foul trouble, the cats will have to turn upon that short bench, perhaps in diop or radman.

but i understand the logic, bobcats desperate team coming off 3 loses, raps bad team on the road.

[solobass]

Ok, booked one more play here is my final card for the day.

Raps +7.5
Spurs -5
Blazers -6
Nets +13

also I parlayed them together in case I win them all, but please be responsible with your parlay amounts!

Best of luck and I will be back later

[solobass]

Good morning everyone, you guys made some great picks on the Bobs and wow, the Spurs giving up a 17 point lead was not good for my cause. You guys can have some of my $$$ but hopefully today I win it back.

[solobass]

interesting game pistons @ mavs, what team has been more of a disappointment? both once title contenders on their last legs of the current paradigm, which one will reach back and pull out the W? both teams will be overhauled in the offseason.

[cocknocker]

Get ready to fade the Nuggets tomorrow! We already had this talk.

[khaliagent]

nuggets will be the play for tommorrow

[solobass]

Get ready to fade the Nuggets tomorrow! We already had this talk.

you got it, and also probably against the wiz. no way they can keep covering these large spreads game after game

[solobass]

first booked play

Hawks -12

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey Solo.....good luck with your system bro. I posted this on CKs thread, but I can't help but wonder how any "consensus-type picks" between our two systems would fare. I think our systems are probably somewhat similar to a certain degree. Mine is also heavily influenced by certain trends changing and is also math/probability-based. It looks like we are having somewhat similar results as far as Wins and Losses go. I wonder if both systems came up with the same pick how successful they would be?

[solobass]

Hey Solo.....good luck with your system bro. I posted this on CKs thread, but I can't help but wonder how any "consensus-type picks" between our two systems would fare. I think our systems are probably somewhat similar to a certain degree. Mine is also heavily influenced by certain trends changing and is also math/probability-based. It looks like we are having somewhat similar results as far as Wins and Losses go. I wonder if both systems came up with the same pick how successful they would be?

we can only find out! be sure to post your final card here so we can compare. due to personal issues (drinking beer, driving range) i got a late jump on things today. what stats do you use for your formula?

2nd play

Magic +6

the cavs win but do not cover......

[Dexter]

we can only find out! be sure to post your final card here so we can compare. due to personal issues (drinking beer, driving range) i got a late jump on things today. what stats do you use for your formula?

2nd play

Magic +6

the cavs win but do not cover......

geez - still waiting for a day when we agree on a damn play!

[solobass]

geez - still waiting for a day when we agree on a damn play!

i know, this was a tough one here i usually trust bron bron with my $$$ but the numbers are the numbers. who here thinks cleveland will finish with 1 loss @ home for the season?

[solobass]

Mavs -5.5 especially with sheed out. both teams had winnable games on sunday but both failed to capitalize. bottom line, the mavs have the talent to do something about it.

[solobass]

Final NBA Card for the night

Lakers -9.5
Mavs -5.5
Magic +6
Hawks -12

best of luck everybody and post your plays!

[TheLemonDropKid]

we can only find out! be sure to post your final card here so we can compare. due to personal issues (drinking beer, driving range) i got a late jump on things today. what stats do you use for your formula?

2nd play

Magic +6

the cavs win but do not cover......

LOL.....I hear ya bro....

My system has the following for today:

CAVS -6
CELTICS -1

I don't think we have any consensus for today...but we will keep an eye out on it for the future.

[solobass]

well, last night was a mixed bag, 2-2. i placed a bet on the mavs when my formula said not to. that is why i do what i do, to keep me coloring in the lines and making profits long term. a slight disappointing, and i always get slapped in the face when i go against my own mathematical machinations. that is the difference between 3-1 and 2-2. i had st. marys last night so it was profitable at least. best of luck today.

[solobass]

Celts -4.5

miami still sucks on the road, and even with wade trying to play all world they are only 6-4 in their last 10.

[solobass]

Bulls +2 and ML

both method #1 and #2 have the bulls winning SU tonight @ the thunder.

[solobass]

Final NBA math plays for the night
bobs -12.5
celts -4.5
bulls +2 and ML +110
magic -5.5

maybe a winning streak will drum up some more business here.....best of luck tonight

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey Solo.......well my sysem went O-2 last night bringing the overall total to 15-12.


I thought our systems would have some "consensus picks" but tonight they seem to pointing in opposite directions.....lol. Actually, in all honesty, the Celtics -4.5 should be a play under my system but I didn't include it because of the VAST amount of injuries to the Celts......which isn't really fair because the system is the system regardless of injuries. Anyway.......here are my system picks for the night excluding the Celts.

IND PACERS -2
MIL BUCKS +5.5
OKC THUNDER -1.5

Good luck bro.............

[solobass]

Hey Solo.......well my sysem went O-2 last night bringing the overall total to 15-12.


I thought our systems would have some "consensus picks" but tonight they seem to pointing in opposite directions.....lol. Actually, in all honesty, the Celtics -4.5 should be a play under my system but I didn't include it because of the VAST amount of injuries to the Celts......which isn't really fair because the system is the system regardless of injuries. Anyway.......here are my system picks for the night excluding the Celts.

IND PACERS -2
MIL BUCKS +5.5
OKC THUNDER -1.5

Good luck bro.............

we can still be friends though right?!

[solobass]

hahahaa, good thing i laid the effing wood on the celts tonight. things are looking good so far.

[solobass]

what a crazy night in the NBA last night. my math plays were .5 from being a perfect 5-0, the celts not covering by a hook. also per conversation with CK i laid the wood on the t-wolves and got the cover there so last night was all $$$$$. because i was tailing CK that does not get added to the record though. 3 games on the slate tonight, and be sure to do your bracket challenges at your books, most have freebie competitions.

best of luck and my 3 picks will be up before noon for NBA!