NBA - Tuesday, 5/13/14

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Play Tuesday

Clippers / Thunder UNDER 212.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 254-274-8, -23.58

[pupung]

Care to explain?

[leetreaper]

1 NBA Play Tuesday

Clippers / Thunder UNDER 212.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 254-274-8, -23.58

[LGBR]

1 NBA Play Tuesday

Clippers / Thunder UNDER 212.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 254-274-8, -23.58

Considering the YTD, should I take the opposite bet???

[Jerrod]

Took your Portland ml last night. .. was a huge play for me thx

[LT Profits]

Considering the YTD, should I take the opposite bet???

+17 units last six weeks or so since low-water mark of -40.

[LT Profits]

Care to explain?

Just going with my model, which spit out 210.5.

Teams only scored 200 in Game 4 and this pivotal Game 5 should be most tension filled of the series. I think that whoever wins this game will have to play some defense so I don't see both teams just going off offensively, which is basically what is required for a high total like this. As long as one team plays defense, should be good.

[LGBR]

Trying to get back some losses too...
But still takling the over, expecting a beautiful high scoring game

[No coincidences]

Just going with my model, which spit out 210.5.

Teams only scored 200 in Game 4 and this pivotal Game 5 should be most tension filled of the series. I think that whoever wins this game will have to play some defense so I don't see both teams just going off offensively, which is basically what is required for a high total like this. As long as one team plays defense, should be good.

I'm all for a good under, especially with overs hitting at a ludicrous rate in the playoffs so far, but to just expect at least one of these two teams to show up and play D is kind of a stretch. Neither team is particularly interested in doing so, or especially good at it either.

[LT Profits]

I'm all for a good under, especially with overs hitting at a ludicrous rate in the playoffs so far, but to just expect at least one of these two teams to show up and play D is kind of a stretch. Neither team is particularly interested in doing so, or especially good at it either.

Not true, both teams CAN play defense, but they also like to play fast, which is why games are higher scoring. Fact of the matter is OKC was third in field goal percentage allowed this season and fifth in defensive efficiency, while Clippers were fifth in FG% allowed and seventh in Def Eff, so not bad at all. Thing is both teams were in the top eight I think in pace rating, so those defensive numbers weren't so obvious. But I don't think both teams will play at their usual pace tonight with so much at stake, they know they cannot get too loose with the ball. And all it takes is one team slowing down a bit with inflated totals like this.

[LT Profits]

And besides, like I said, my projection says 210.5, so it's not like I am expecting a half-court struggle. Just think the total is a bit high is all.

[LT Profits]

I am now seeing 65% on the Over and the line hasn't budged yet FWIW.

[44 Mag]

And besides, like I said, my projection says 210.5, so it's not like I am expecting a half-court struggle. Just think the total is a bit high is all.

Quick question, so later today if big money starts rolling in on the under, and book drop the line to say 210, would you consider going over??? It could happen.

[LT Profits]

Quick question, so later today if big money starts rolling in on the under, and book drop the line to say 210, would you consider going over??? It could happen.

No because I'd be sitting on a +EV play at 212.5 and half-point difference between my line and actual total is nothing, especially with higher totals.

[BCC585]

Hey LT, what's your thoughts on the total for INDY/WASH?

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, what's your thoughts on the total for INDY/WASH?

No interest any more, I was hoping to get an Under 182.5 but I doubt it gets there.

[44 Mag]

No interest any more, I was hoping to get an Under 182.5 but I doubt it gets there.

???? It is @ 181???

[LT Profits]

???? It is @ 181???

Right, which is right where my number is more or less. I'd need a minimum of 182.5 to play the Under and I thought it had a chance to get there earlier. Now, I don't think so.

[JM17]

this game is going over man.

[farmhouse1]

Fade this bum for the long run

[LT Profits]

Wow, model was right on for both totals. Goal now is to finish around -10.

[44 Mag]

Wow, model was right on for both totals. Goal now is to finish around -10.

Got to give you credit man, good calls.

[LGBR]

Nice call man.... that clipers last quarter got your back! They stopped playing and started killing time around 7min on the clock