The craziness continues! Two more underdogs won outright Thursday Night, with Atlanta and Memphis scoring home dog victories. Golden State rallied from a big deficit to almost cover. Those betting the Warriors at +2 pushed. Generally speaking, sharps are doing well and the public is losing so far because it’s been so dog-heavy. Sportsbooks aren’t suffering due to their bad numbers because of that public action. But, squares don’t bet the NBA like they do the NFL or March Madness, so this slew of dog covers isn’t much of a windfall.
It hasn’t helped sportsbooks that the Lakers and Kobe Bryant are on the sidelines. The lack of Boston and New York in the brackets has reduced public betting interest as well. A lot of “old school” money from all three of those historical NBA hotbeds.
Will the surprises continue in Friday’s tripleheader? Let’s run tonight’s market report in schedule order…
TORONTO AT BROOKLYN: Brooklyn received both sharp (Wise Guy) and square (public) support at the opening line of Nets -4. We’re now seeing Brooklyn -5. We’ve mentioned all week that sharps who like a favorite bet immediately to get in before public action. Squares like taking home teams in bounce back positions…and the fact that a New York team is involved magnifies the issue. Sources tell us that Toronto money would come in at +5.5. Dog lovers would settle for +5 if that’s the best they’re going to get. Generally split opinions here from sharps…with both sides angling for the best number. Those who liked the favorite got in at -4. Those preferring the dog will get at least +5 and possibly better.
The Over/Under opened at 191, and has mostly stood pat. The math guys made it 191, continuing a trend suggesting that oddsmakers have figured out what the math guys are doing! Some stores are testing 191.5 to see if it generates action. Sportsbooks like to defend themselves against sharp totals specialists. But, they don’t want a prop on the board that gets NO action whatsoever. The stores will try to lure in some square money before tipoff if they can.
CHICAGO AT WASHINGTON: The opening line of Washington -3 hasn’t budged. By now, you know that means that sharps DON’T like the home Wizards. They would have bet right off the bat if they had. They either have no opinion, or prefer the Bulls and are waiting to see if they can get a better number. Considering that Chicago was a big-city team in a must-win bounce back, squares could actually be on the dog here. It’s telling that sharps DIDN’T bet Chicago either. No position-taking either way. Sources tell us that sharps now see Washington as the better team in the series, but are waiting until Game Four (or later) to express that support. If Chicago is going to have a peak game, it’s in Game Three.
The total was bet up from an opener of 181.5 to 182.5. Both teams have been shooting well inside the arc (by playoff standards) while earning free throw attempts. The math guys did hit the opener pretty hard, but stopped betting at 182.5.
HOUSTON AT PORTLAND: Similar situation here, as Chicago/Washington and Houston/Portland continue to mirror each other in the #4 vs. #5 slot in the brackets. Portland, with a 2-0 series lead, opened at -3, and has stood pat. Again, if favorites liked the favorite, they would have bet early. Nobody bet! That means either pass or underdog. And, AGAIN, sources tell us that sharps now see Portland as the better value option moving forward…but are waiting until after the trailer’s desperation moment to invest in that fashion.
We have some rare Under interest, as the opener of 216 has been bet down to 215 or 214.5. We’re hearing that sharps expect the pace to slow down away from Houston.
It hasn’t helped sportsbooks that the Lakers and Kobe Bryant are on the sidelines. The lack of Boston and New York in the brackets has reduced public betting interest as well. A lot of “old school” money from all three of those historical NBA hotbeds.
Will the surprises continue in Friday’s tripleheader? Let’s run tonight’s market report in schedule order…
TORONTO AT BROOKLYN: Brooklyn received both sharp (Wise Guy) and square (public) support at the opening line of Nets -4. We’re now seeing Brooklyn -5. We’ve mentioned all week that sharps who like a favorite bet immediately to get in before public action. Squares like taking home teams in bounce back positions…and the fact that a New York team is involved magnifies the issue. Sources tell us that Toronto money would come in at +5.5. Dog lovers would settle for +5 if that’s the best they’re going to get. Generally split opinions here from sharps…with both sides angling for the best number. Those who liked the favorite got in at -4. Those preferring the dog will get at least +5 and possibly better.
The Over/Under opened at 191, and has mostly stood pat. The math guys made it 191, continuing a trend suggesting that oddsmakers have figured out what the math guys are doing! Some stores are testing 191.5 to see if it generates action. Sportsbooks like to defend themselves against sharp totals specialists. But, they don’t want a prop on the board that gets NO action whatsoever. The stores will try to lure in some square money before tipoff if they can.
CHICAGO AT WASHINGTON: The opening line of Washington -3 hasn’t budged. By now, you know that means that sharps DON’T like the home Wizards. They would have bet right off the bat if they had. They either have no opinion, or prefer the Bulls and are waiting to see if they can get a better number. Considering that Chicago was a big-city team in a must-win bounce back, squares could actually be on the dog here. It’s telling that sharps DIDN’T bet Chicago either. No position-taking either way. Sources tell us that sharps now see Washington as the better team in the series, but are waiting until Game Four (or later) to express that support. If Chicago is going to have a peak game, it’s in Game Three.
The total was bet up from an opener of 181.5 to 182.5. Both teams have been shooting well inside the arc (by playoff standards) while earning free throw attempts. The math guys did hit the opener pretty hard, but stopped betting at 182.5.
HOUSTON AT PORTLAND: Similar situation here, as Chicago/Washington and Houston/Portland continue to mirror each other in the #4 vs. #5 slot in the brackets. Portland, with a 2-0 series lead, opened at -3, and has stood pat. Again, if favorites liked the favorite, they would have bet early. Nobody bet! That means either pass or underdog. And, AGAIN, sources tell us that sharps now see Portland as the better value option moving forward…but are waiting until after the trailer’s desperation moment to invest in that fashion.
We have some rare Under interest, as the opener of 216 has been bet down to 215 or 214.5. We’re hearing that sharps expect the pace to slow down away from Houston.
