"We delayed from our planned publication time just a little bit to get as much information as we could about sharp betting for Sunday’s NBA quadrupleheader. The markets were reeling a bit from a slew of double digit covers on Saturday. Oddsmakers and sharps were both caught by surprise to a degree by what transpired. Even sharps who liked Golden State weren’t expecting a huge fourth quarter lead and a double digit cover!
Here’s a look at how the Wise Guys have been betting Sunday basketball. We’ll take the games in tipoff order…
DALLAS AT SAN ANTONIO: We’re generally seeing a tug-of-war here between the public on top seeded San Antonio -9, and sharps who till take Dallas at +9.5 when they see it. Sharps tend to avoid big favorites of this size in a series opener. Wise guys who think San Antonio is the dominant side overall will try to take advantage of that at cheap prices when the series is in Dallas, or with first half or second half betting. Dallas money comes in at +9.5…and would come in stronger at +10 before tipoff if the public pushes the line that high.
The Over/Under opened at 206, and has stayed within a half point of that in either direction as of press time. The numbers guys put it on 206. Different stores are testing hooks in either direction to see if they can encourage some action on the option.
CHARLOTTE AT MIAMI: Similar situation here to Dallas/San Antonio in terms of a tug-of-war. The game opened a half point higher. Squares (the public) are betting Miami at -9.5. Sharps take Charlotte at +10 when they see it. Some old school sharps will always take +10 or more in any sport! In this case, many Wise Guys know that Miami isn’t a great tall favorite because they slack off until they really need 100% effort. Sharps will keep fading the public on game day at +10 or better.
The total opened at 189.5, and has moved downward. We’re now seeing 188.5 in many stores. The math guys made the game 188 or 189, and have been betting for value. Note that series openers often go UP…so this is against that tide. The public tends to bet Overs when they bet NBA totals…but this isn’t necessarily a marquee game that would drive a lot of action beyond just Miami as a team side or in parlays.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: More sharp interest here than in the others. An opener of Chicago -5 has been bet down to Washington +4.5. And, that’s even though public action is on the favorite. The Wise Guys like the dog here, and took +5 in fears that a feeding frenzy from other sharps was on the way. If the public pushes the game back to the full five, more sharp money will come in on the Wizards.
We’re also seeing Under money here, as an opener of 182.5 is down to 180.5. Sharps have a lot of respect for Chicago’s defense. Sources are telling us that Wise Guy interest on Chicago showed up here rather than on the favorite price. Sharps who respect the Bulls bet UNDER…sharps who liked the dog took the points.
PORTLAND AT HOUSTON: The line has mostly stood pat at Houston -5. Some stores are testing -5.5 in anticipation of public action throughout the day. Houston is a public team because of Dwight Howard, James Harden, and Jeremy Lin (even if Lin is having an off season). Most squares can’t name a player on Portland! We’re hearing sharps would fade any public move here, and would settle for Blazers +5.5 if that number settles in during the day and early evening Sunday.
The total has been bet down from a very high opener of 216 down to 214.5. We’re hearing the math guys made it 215…and some old school sharps added in their Under money just on principal. Very tough for the old school guys to accept a playoff game totaled this far above 200 no matter who’s playing. "
Here’s a look at how the Wise Guys have been betting Sunday basketball. We’ll take the games in tipoff order…
DALLAS AT SAN ANTONIO: We’re generally seeing a tug-of-war here between the public on top seeded San Antonio -9, and sharps who till take Dallas at +9.5 when they see it. Sharps tend to avoid big favorites of this size in a series opener. Wise guys who think San Antonio is the dominant side overall will try to take advantage of that at cheap prices when the series is in Dallas, or with first half or second half betting. Dallas money comes in at +9.5…and would come in stronger at +10 before tipoff if the public pushes the line that high.
The Over/Under opened at 206, and has stayed within a half point of that in either direction as of press time. The numbers guys put it on 206. Different stores are testing hooks in either direction to see if they can encourage some action on the option.
CHARLOTTE AT MIAMI: Similar situation here to Dallas/San Antonio in terms of a tug-of-war. The game opened a half point higher. Squares (the public) are betting Miami at -9.5. Sharps take Charlotte at +10 when they see it. Some old school sharps will always take +10 or more in any sport! In this case, many Wise Guys know that Miami isn’t a great tall favorite because they slack off until they really need 100% effort. Sharps will keep fading the public on game day at +10 or better.
The total opened at 189.5, and has moved downward. We’re now seeing 188.5 in many stores. The math guys made the game 188 or 189, and have been betting for value. Note that series openers often go UP…so this is against that tide. The public tends to bet Overs when they bet NBA totals…but this isn’t necessarily a marquee game that would drive a lot of action beyond just Miami as a team side or in parlays.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: More sharp interest here than in the others. An opener of Chicago -5 has been bet down to Washington +4.5. And, that’s even though public action is on the favorite. The Wise Guys like the dog here, and took +5 in fears that a feeding frenzy from other sharps was on the way. If the public pushes the game back to the full five, more sharp money will come in on the Wizards.
We’re also seeing Under money here, as an opener of 182.5 is down to 180.5. Sharps have a lot of respect for Chicago’s defense. Sources are telling us that Wise Guy interest on Chicago showed up here rather than on the favorite price. Sharps who respect the Bulls bet UNDER…sharps who liked the dog took the points.
PORTLAND AT HOUSTON: The line has mostly stood pat at Houston -5. Some stores are testing -5.5 in anticipation of public action throughout the day. Houston is a public team because of Dwight Howard, James Harden, and Jeremy Lin (even if Lin is having an off season). Most squares can’t name a player on Portland! We’re hearing sharps would fade any public move here, and would settle for Blazers +5.5 if that number settles in during the day and early evening Sunday.
The total has been bet down from a very high opener of 216 down to 214.5. We’re hearing the math guys made it 215…and some old school sharps added in their Under money just on principal. Very tough for the old school guys to accept a playoff game totaled this far above 200 no matter who’s playing. "