•• NBA PAYDAY 4 (Handicapping + Algorithms)

[Ratzz]

i think something can be done with this..
trying this out.. interesting results.. so far

one new feature is to double down on a 1Q pick (at Halftime)
if that team has not covered either the 1Q or the 1H

*(i.e. GSW. vs. POR on March 16th)

•• GSW lost the 1Q wager on a buzzer-beater bucket to end the 1Q,
and then was trounced in the 2Q.

*..but roared back outscored the Blazers by 12 pts*after the break
(easy 2H cover)

*not that i have been worth tailing recently (at all) ugh!

..but please nobody put a single penny on this until this method
demonstrates itself to be worthy of a person's hard-earned cash.

cheers, ®

[Ratzz]

March 18th

1) CLE__+3.5__1ST QTR vs. Miami

(i know Irving is out, Wade out too i believe)..

i prolly would take them for the game (+9.5 at home) if Irving was in*

[Ratzz]

ok.. the leans/figures predicted this outcome..
but i thought earlier..(1Q pick)
the 2Q is ALL Cleveland.. ouch.

•• the Cavs would easily have covered the (+7) 1H

but the figures do seem to be working okay..
i just need to time it better and figure that end out.

[Ratzz]

–– March 18th

2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR vs. Washington

3) SAC__+1.5__GAME vs. 10PM

leans and figures point to Sacramento..

[blerpblerp]

–– March 18th

2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR vs. Washington

3) SAC__+1.5__GAME vs. 10PM

leans and figures point to Sacramento..

Can you elaborate for the 1Q?

I might lay off if you have that strong of a push for SAC, but..

Wash is the best 1Q ATS team in the NBA and they've got SAC in a very vulnerable spot...first home game return after being on the road since March 5th I think. Everything with me points to WAS.

[Ratzz]

Can you elaborate for the 1Q?

I might lay off if you have that strong of a push for SAC, but..

Wash is the best 1Q ATS team in the NBA and they've got SAC in a very vulnerable spot...first home game return after being on the road since March 5th I think. Everything with me points to WAS.

all my numbers said Kings 1Q.. not over yet, but*Kings defense looking good early..
the adjustments to 'capping and algorithm may be working..

hope it keeps up whole game

[Ratzz]

–– March 18th

4) SAC__pk__2ND HALF * vs. Washington

[Ratzz]

–– March 19th

5) BKN__–3.5__1ST HALF * vs. Charlotte

6) CHA/BKN__Over 193.5__GAME * 7.30PM

[Ratzz]

–– March 19th

7) NYK__pk__1ST QTR * vs. Indiana

8) NYK__+1.5__GAME * 8.00PM

[Ratzz]

–– March 19th

9) MIN/DAL__Over 54__1ST QTR*

10) MIN/DAL__Over 210__GAME *8.30PM

[Ratzz]

–– March 19th

11) LAK__+13__GAME *10.30PM

[Ratzz]

GO Lakerz!

[No coincidences]

GO Lakerz!

What do you call what the Lakers do?

It's not defense. I'm trying to come up with a different word for standing around picking your ass as your opponent rips you to shreds.

[Ratzz]

lol... indeed Dr. No

i think the rims are 25% larger... or who knows..
seems like they only look at their own score..

i still think they come together and play a little D..

and keep it close this evening, hope so

a clean sweep would be nice (7-0 tonight, and 10-0 last ten)
been wprking hard to figure out this most maddening puzzle, maybe i made some headway

this has happened to me before though,
i would need to keep it up several days in a row
before i believe anything

[Ratzz]

–– March 19th

12) LAK__+7.5__2ND HALF*

[No coincidences]

This LAL/SA fourth quarter is very fishy. Lakers getting hammered going to the basket, nothing called, Lakers just stand around, act like they don't care, then they go down the court and play zero D.

Does this have anything to do with the fact that dogs were 6-1 early in the NBA tonight, including winning the first game of the ESPN doubleheader? Seems fishy that in the DEN/DET, ORL/PHO and now LAL/SA games, these teams magically all cover late after not covering the whole game.

Every possession -- Laker players just standing around in the last four minutes.

[Ratzz]

This LAL/SA fourth quarter is very fishy. Lakers getting hammered going to the basket, nothing called, Lakers just stand around, act like they don't care, then they go down the court and play zero D.

Does this have anything to do with the fact that dogs were 6-1 early in the NBA tonight, including winning the first game of the ESPN doubleheader? Seems fishy that in the DEN/DET, ORL/PHO and now LAL/SA games, these teams magically all cover late after not covering the whole game.

Every possession -- Laker players just standing around in the last four minutes.

if more calls they woulda covered... they almost did even without the calls.. oh well..

i think i know what is missing in that pick,.. i will try to rectify that tomorrow

i hope the good Doctor made out tonight..*

i will look into tomorrow.. cheers, ®

[Ratzz]

March 18th
1) CLE__+3.5__1ST QTR**(L)

2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR**(W)

3) SAC__+1.5__GAME* (W)

4) SAC__pk__2ND HALF**(W)


March 19th

5) BKN__–3.5__1ST HALF** (W)

6) CHA/BKN__Over 193.5__GAME** (W)
*
7) NYK__pk__1ST QTR** (W)

8) NYK__+1.5__GAME** (W)

9) MIN/DAL__Over 54__1ST QTR* (W)

10) MIN/DAL__Over 210__GAME***(W)

11) LAK__+13__GAME* (L)


12) LAK__+7.5__2ND HALF (L)

okay.. new style working better.. i will continue,
and see if it holds up.

but so far so good

New Method (9-3)

[Ratzz]

–– March 20th

13) CLE__+5.5__1ST HALF* vs. Oklahoma

[No coincidences]

–– March 20th

13) CLE__+5.5__1ST HALF* vs. Oklahoma

Unbelievable. Up 4 at the end of the first quarter and can't even cover the 5.5.

What a pitiful second quarter.

[Ratzz]

–– March 20th

14) POR__–2.5__1ST HALF* vs. Washington

15) WAS/POR__Under 206.5__GAME* 10PM

[Ratzz]

–– March 20th

16) POR__–1.5__1ST QTR* vs. Washington

[Ratzz]

–– March 20th

17) MIL__+7.5__1ST HALF* vs. GSW

18)MIL__+12.5__GAME* 10.30PM

[Ratzz]

–– March 21st

19) CHI__+3.5__1ST HALF* vs. Indiana

20)CHI__+6.5__GAME* –

Bulls looking better.. let's see

[Ratzz]

–– March 21st

21) DEN__+2.5__1ST QTR* vs. Dallas

i hope the Mavs start slow..*

[Ratzz]

–– March 21st

22) SAC__+4.5__1ST HALF* vs. San Antonio

this line seems low..
i kinda feel a 'trap' line where everyone jumps on SAS

Kings might be able to keep it close.. and gritty in the 2Q

[Ratzz]

–– March 21st

23) PHX__–2.5__1ST QTR* vs. Detroit

[Ratzz]

–– March 21st

24) PHX__–5.5__2ND HALF* vs. Detroit

[Ratzz]

– March 22nd

1) Saint-Louis___+6___1ST HALF over Louisville

[Ratzz]

– March 22nd

1) Saint-Louis___+6___1ST HALF over Louisville

aargh.. except for this one kid (McCall), the pick was fine.. Louisville ONLY scored 25 Pts..
*it was so aggravating.. this one player Mccall.. kept shooting, and shooting and shooting.. this kid goes 1-7 for 2pts.

rest of the Saint-Louis shot 40% from the field in the 1H,
this indulgent/undisciplined kid took over and ran 'em into the ground..

NO MORE kids. Pros only. Pros are hard enough.

[Ratzz]

*– March 22nd

25) UTA___–1.5___1ST QTR** vs. Orlando

[Ratzz]

– March 23rd

26) MIN___–0.5___1ST QTR** vs. Phoenix

[Ratzz]

\ – March 23rd

27) WAS___pk___1ST QTR** vs. Denver

[Ratzz]

– March 23rd

28) MIL___+2.5___1ST QTR** vs. Sacramento

i have been impressed with the Bucks last two games..
played their hearts out vs. POR and GSW..

Kings are not as good as either of those opponents//
i think they can at least start strong..

maybe Kings 2H, but early i think that MIL looks okay

[Ratzz]

Good luck!

thank you Tabloreen,

hope to keep the flow going.. *let's see!


cheers – ®*