Leans for Saturday 3/8/09

[cocknocker]

Well for today's action I have decided to go underdog with it, and pund the Knicks and the Grizzlies. Th line for the Knicks isn't up yet, but the Grizzlies are 4.5 point dogs. I am going to try my hand at buying 3 points for the Grizzlies as i fugure that I will need all the help that I can get taking them. I will provide a write up later on today, but so far it's

Memphis+9 3 point buy W
Knicks-165 moneyline L
Sixers-1.5 1st quarter (added play)L
Cleveland-2.5 1st quarter (added play)W
Minnesota 2nd +8.5 (added play)
Clipper+3.5 3rd quarter (added play)
Clippers+6 2nd half (added play)



CBB

Auburn -130 moneyline W
Cal State Northridge -NO PLAY (MOVEMENT)
Memphis-11 2nd half (added play)W
UCLA-10 2nd half (added play)W
BYU-20 (hook buy, added play)
BYU-12.5 2nd half (added play)


New Mexico was removed fom the playbook (no play)

And of course

[The_Kid]

The UNDER between the 76ers and Grizzlies is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Memphis and 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings overall. Memphis is the 3rd worst offensive team in the league and they won't be putting up 118 points like they did vs the Clippers the other night. Philadelphia does not shoot the long ball too well either as they are last in the league in that department (4.2 per game). I will ride the UNDER 191.5 tomorrow between these two teams.

[mb19]

I need sleep

[nonsense48]

bookedokla+12
det+3

[alittlemoresound]

teasing this already.....SPECIAL 3 TEAM 8 point T



CLEV -1.5
NO -4.5
MEM +12.5

also like DALLAS DETROIT and Min+21 in a teaser situation only....

have 4 straight days with $ cashed teaser

[texhooper]

wow. Umemphis is -24 1sthalf tomorrow. I think memphis will destroy tulane but I dont know if I can bring myself to take a team -24 1sthalf.

that's for the game, chief. -13 for the half.

[nonsense48]

12 is far too many pts. to give okla as one of the hottest covering large spread dogs this season.
det+3 is on fire at this point and i don't see the wheels falling off in this one.

[shoebox]

CK,

Whats your take on the sexy game tomorrow morning between UCONN/PITT??

[merssh]

cavs

what do we think about the celtics let down?

[nonsense48]

booked 3 team 6pt.tease:
det+9
mia+15.5
okla+18

[BrandonLaz]

Games I have strong leans towards tomorrow

Miami +9.5

The Cavaliers just got blown out yesterday by the Celtics and everybody is going to be on them to bounce back for a win here. Wade and Co. had the game won against the Cavaliers last time they met up and had a final 5 minute meltdown. That will not happen again and I trust Wade in the Clutch way more than Lebron (I know I am not afraid to admit it). I think the Cavaliers might get the win, but I do not think they cover the spread. You also have to take into account the letdown factor for the Cavaliers. They had a huge game they lost yesterday and now they have to get up and ready to play against a Miami team that won against the Raptors and is primed up and ready for revenge.

Golden State +5.5

I like the Warriors here on the last game of a road trip. The Bucks just got slapped around by the Cavs and the Bulls. These two teams met in December and it was a 23 point blowout win for the Warriors, and the game before that granted it was last season in Jan. was a 20 point win by the Warriors. I had this game projected more around a spread of +2 so I am getting an extra 3.5 points here. Over the last three season the Bucks when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season are only 13-38 ATS. I am looking for the Golden State Warriors to cash in my Golden Ticket.

Memphis +4

Well for starters I am going to be at the game tonight so I had to go on one of the teams. I am going to go with the Grizzlies here for a few reasons though. For Starters while not a great team at home they are much better in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points going 4-1 ATS, and not many people have taken notice to the fact that they have gone 10-4 ATS in the second half of the season. Their matchup tonight is against a 76ers team that has been resting for a while now, but is that really a good thing? When playing with 3 or more days rest the 76ers are 1-5 ATS, and in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points they are only 3-7 ATS. If you also look at the 76ers last 10 games they are only 3-7 ATS and 4-6 SU. The Grizzlies are actually returning home with momentum after getting a win on the road. Granted it was against the Clippers, but now they get the gift of a struggling 76ers squad. I am taking the Grizzlies here and getting hammered drunk as I cheer on a win for the home team.

Michigan Wolverines +4.5

This is a huge bubble game right here, but Minnesota is at a slight disadvantage. Minnesota beat Wisconsin earlier in the week, and has been getting some talk of this game might not matter for their NCAA Tournament chances. For Michigan it matters they know the winner of this game basically locks up their ticket into the Big Dance. Michigan has the better talent here thoug and Minnesota will have no answer for Manny Harris and Deshawn Simms. These teams just played on 02/19 and as a 3 point favorite the Wolverines destroyed the Golden Gophers by 12. Michigan has been preparing for this matchup since their last game 03/01 while Minnesota last played on 03/04 and is missing a few of the extra days of rest and practice that Michigan got for this big game. I am taking Michigan in this matchup as I believe they get the outright win here.

Stanford +6

Arizona is struggling right now losing 4 straight games. In this series they have also lost 4 straight games and going 3-1 ATS in those 4 games. Stanford is playing for a shot at an at-large bid as they know they would at least jump into the talk with a win here and with so many bubble teams failing to get needed wins recently. This series is all about the underdog as the underdog has covered a remarkable 17-4 ATS over the last 21 matchups. Any team that has lost 4 straight games should not get a spread as high as 6. While Stanford might not be able to finish it off and get the outright upset this game is going to come down to the closing seconds to determine a winner, and as witnessed against Cal a couple nights ago Arizona can not hold onto a lead.

[BrandonLaz]

booked 3 team 6pt.tease:
det+9
mia+15.5
okla+18

Hey non I love all of the plays the only one that worries me there is Detroit. They are hot right now you never know when the young Hawks team is going to play out of their minds though. The Hawks are like a roulette gun I just can't go against right now. The extra 6 points makes it a lot easier play to go on though I don't see them beating this hot Pistons squad by 9 no matter how out of their minds the kids play.

[texhooper]

memphis -13 first half for sure.

i'll be at that grizz game, ck. what a friggin coincidence.

[BrandonLaz]

memphis -13 first half for sure.

i'll be at that grizz game, ck. what a friggin coincidence.

Are you making fun of my pick due to me being at the game or are you seriously going to be there as well?

[texhooper]

no, i for real am going to be at the game.

hahaha, you are too i see. i didn't notice that before i posted. i was just surprised to see that the one game i'll go to this year ck takes the grizz.

[texhooper]

i meant u of memphis -13 first half, by the way.

[mb19]

that's for the game, chief. -13 for the half.

Yea I need sleep.

That being said Memphis has won a billion in a row against tulane

[Bayno82]

My Plays

Have never done this before so be gentle.

My plays for tommorrow are:

Milwaukee -6 (BIG) over Golden State

Milwaukee have been on a bit of a losing streak but to mostly good teams so I think they are not too far off. At home vs a Golden State side that at the end of preceedings last night had only 6 fit players then I think they can cover the 6 points they are giving up on there home floor

Indiana (projected - 11) vs LA Clippers

Indiana has been hot lately in trying to get into the last spot for the playoffs. Randolph wont play in this game and he is a large part of the Clips low post game. Camby will be underdone a bit after sitting out most of the last game with a migraine. As much as I would love to tip the upset for the Clippers and even with Gordon coming back I cant see them covering.

Memphis vs Philadelphia (-4.5)

Pretty simple this one Philadelphia too strong for Memphis

[pho3nix32]

line: mt+13@ptb
pick: ptb-13

Trends:

- The Twolves are 4-12 ATS in the 2nd half of this season.
- The Twolves are 13-20 ATS against teams above .500 this season.
- The Twolves are 2-7 ATS on Saturday games this season.
- The Twolves are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games.
- The Blazers are 18-11 ATS at home this season.
- Head to head, the Blazers are 9-2 ATS in the last 3 years.
- Head to head, the Blazers are 4-1 ATS at home in the last 3 years.

Keys to a Blazers cover:

1. Home cooking.
2. Twolves end of back to back.
3. Foye is not 100%

[texhooper]

solid pick pho. will be joining you on that one. blazers should roll.

now in the words of mb19, i need sleep.

good luck all.

[peetlui]

Pho3nix you beat me to it but I'm glad we're on the same side. Let me add to that: Portland has won 6 out of the last 7 SU & ATS against Minny and that Portland basically OWNS Minny. Don't forget that Minny is 0-7 their last 7 SU and 0-5 their last 5 ATS, in other words they are ICE COLD. Roy and Aldridge are gonna light it up Saturday.

[barackobama]

MY PICKS:
NBA record: 67-45

Por: BIG...portland is too good at home and minnesota is COLD!!!
Okc: HUGE...okc has been a cover machine PERIOD!!!
Det: detroit has been too hot to handle
Mil: Don Nelson is self-destructing his own team
Phi: Memphis sucks

[BiggDogg5n2]

Cleveland -9 (bought the hook)




My Thoughts....

Cleveland is 25-6 ATS the last 31 Home games...

The last time that Cleveland didn't cover the Home spread -

Feb 8th vs Lake Show

Jan 27th vs the Queens...

Cleveland has only lost back to back ATS 3 times this season...

Cleveland is

8-2 ATS last 10 games

10-5 ATS last 15 games



What worries me is Miami plays well against them...

Dec 28th vs. Miami won 93-86 but didn't cover (-10.5)

Dec 30th at Miami lost straight up and ATS 95-107 (-5.5)

March 2nd At Miami won 107-100 (-3.5)

Hope fully Cleveland is pissed about the butt kicken they took at Boston yesterday....and they blow the doors off of Miami in front of the home fans....


BOL on your plays today.....Dogg

[King_Bookie]

POR -12
OKC +11.5
MIA +9.5

These three teams.... I smell big wins... Cleveland has been due for a home loss for ages and its time for Miami to do the honors.

[peterpan19]

cle -9 just has to be the pick in that one, they are 11-1 ATS after a loss, winning theit games by an average margin of almost 14 pts, but they are only 2-3 Ats at home against Cle and they just beat em the last game that said i will include the Cle pick in my 7pt teaser of the day

Det +2.5, man that looks sweet, det is just on fire right now and both teams are on b2b, it seems like that det team is so happy that AI is gone, they play like ... I dont know like the cancer is gone ... 2nd play for my 7 pt teaser

Okl +12, just too many points here, i am even thinking about taking that game without the point, but I will include it in my 7 pt teaser too, Noh just wont win this one by 19 pts or more, when you look at their last 5 games the only team they really blwe away was Dal and other than that they always kept it close..

7pt 3 team teaser of the day (-120):
Det +9.5
Cle -2
okc +19

I really like that teaser, going 2x on it today

other games: Ind but waiting for the line here, slight lean towards the rested NY team today (4-1 SU at home home against Char, line somewhere around a pk)

[repski]

CK,

Whats your take on the sexy game tomorrow morning between UCONN/PITT??

shoebox,

not that you asked me, but Pitt pretty much dominated UConn in their house...and I don't see a change here Blair totally owned Thabeet and I thought Thabeet might get him in foul trouble......I think your getting good value Pitt -3.5...I see this as Pitt-7

[repski]

does anyone know why there are no lines for the Tounament games??

[google99]

i think vegas is working on those line closely

[Bayno82]

My Card

Do we think Dallas can cover the -12 spread to Washington. San Antonio seemed to do it pretty easily?

My Card

Indiana - 4.5
Milwaukee - 5.5
Dallas - 12
Philadelphia -4.5

[repski]

Pitt -3.5

Since losing to Pitt nearly three weeks ago, UConn won three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 72-65 victory over Notre Dame last Saturday, failing to cover 11½-point road fav.
The Huskies, who are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts.
Uconn outscored opponents by 15 ppg on the year (76.6-61.6). But over the past five games, that margin has its down to 71.8 ppg and allowing 65.4.

-Pitt bounced back from a loss at Providence to notch a pair of wins, including Wednesday’s 90-75 victory over No. 13 Marquette as a 9½-point home favorite.
-Pitt is on a 7-2 ATS run, has rolled up 81.6 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 72.6 ppg, and the Panthers have averaged 82.9 ppg on their home floor this season, nearly 20 points more than their opponents (63.1).

-Pitt is on a 3-1 ATS run against UConn 2-2 SU, Going back further, the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games
-Uconn has dropped four straight ATS decisions in Saturday games
-Uconn is just 1-4 ATS in their last five Big East starts.
-Pitt is on ATS streaks, including 7-2 as a favorite of 12 points of fewer, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a SU win, and their current 7-2 ATS roll has come entirely within the Big East.

[johnnymapalo]

Who is a good dog tonite??

I only see 3 possibles:

Detroit +110
Charlotte +145
Memphis +165

Today, just doesn't seem like a dog day. Maybe covering the spreads but out right winning. Dogs are looking like true dogs today.. what's your take..

[solobass]

Pistons @ Hawks
i was looking for a reason to jump off the pistons bandwagon as the public gets on it, but.....

detroit has been doing it at both ends, being more efficient on offense and defense bringing them slightly ahead in recent data to the hawks (remember i do rolling 12 week and 4 week averages). pistons have started running actual plays instead of standing around. the hawks are on their 5th game in 7 nights and are on a b2b and coming off 3 road games. atlanta is a fading team right now. that being said, the hawks front line will have some success, and counting on sheed to stay out of foul trouble is a mixed bag. lastly, the pistons own the slowest tempo in the nba right now, but it is on the slight uptick.

Pistons +2

Heat @ Cavs
the heat play a slight tick faster than the cavs, but what jumps off the page is when you compare their D. cavs have a huge edge here. cavs beat the heat 107-100 on monday in miami, and winning 96% of your home games justifies the 9 pt spread even on a b2b. i have this one capped as a 13 pt win for cleveland.

Cavs -9

[Dexter]

wow - i fell asleep at halftime figuring the jazz were toast. only to now see that jr smith popped a 3 with 40 seconds left to cut the lead from 11 to 8. brutal...

[suckatmyjob]

Liking Pitt -3.5 and the under 140.5 other games in college Xavier -6.5 and Lville 2.5 but man if I remember correctly the last few Saturday's I've been losing in CBB and have to win back and more in NBA so going extra light in CBB

[shoebox]

Pitt -3.5

Since losing to Pitt nearly three weeks ago, UConn won three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 72-65 victory over Notre Dame last Saturday, failing to cover 11½-point road fav.
The Huskies, who are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts.
Uconn outscored opponents by 15 ppg on the year (76.6-61.6). But over the past five games, that margin has its down to 71.8 ppg and allowing 65.4.

-Pitt bounced back from a loss at Providence to notch a pair of wins, including Wednesday’s 90-75 victory over No. 13 Marquette as a 9½-point home favorite.
-Pitt is on a 7-2 ATS run, has rolled up 81.6 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 72.6 ppg, and the Panthers have averaged 82.9 ppg on their home floor this season, nearly 20 points more than their opponents (63.1).

-Pitt is on a 3-1 ATS run against UConn 2-2 SU, Going back further, the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games
-Uconn has dropped four straight ATS decisions in Saturday games
-Uconn is just 1-4 ATS in their last five Big East starts.
-Pitt is on ATS streaks, including 7-2 as a favorite of 12 points of fewer, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a SU win, and their current 7-2 ATS roll has come entirely within the Big East.

Good stuff rep you have been stellar with your finds keep it up. Im with PITT -3.5