NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

JMon · 02-20-14, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Yep yep, it's too bad that group doesn't have more people participating after all this time. Great work by you in there by the way JMon.

Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself.

. Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases

JMon · 02-20-14, 05:41 PM

Speaking of bases, I started a season long SBR MLB contest if some you fellas want to join

http://contests.sbrforum.com/mlb-2014-sbr-s-best-contest-4755/

figue · 02-20-14, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself.

. Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases

Any sdql mlb for underdogs what could you share ?? thANKS.

JMon · 02-20-14, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by figue

Any sdql mlb for underdogs what could you share ?? thANKS.

Yes, I have many doggies. I will post a few when they come active.

figue · 02-21-14, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Locked it in moments ago.
Good luck

heat winner

Dynobites · 02-21-14, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by Dynobites

Looking at trends for this Mia/Okc game.

The under is 5-1 L6 scenarios in which the Heat previous win was on the road, scoring more than 100 pts - with their next game (not vs OKC) at home. --Same situation for the Thunder, in which the under is 3-1 L4 scenarios, or 8-4 L12--

The under is 4-2 L6 scenarios in which the Thunder previous win was on the road, in which they scored more than 100pts, their previous previous win was on the road, their previous previous previous game was a win. Last time the Thunder played the Heat in this situation the won by 17pts.
(Here's the cord for that one: team=Thunder and p:AW and p

oints > 100 and pp:AW and ppp:W)

Only played with this for twenty minutes but I'm pounding the under of 206.5.

Cashed

Dynobites · 02-21-14, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself.

. Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases

Can't wait!

Dynobites · 02-21-14, 04:51 AM

Ok. I have a few.

Nyk -2 -110
Spurs/Suns Over 206.5 +106
Den +7.5 -105

I have all the trends,codes, sdql's on my thread

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/2809984-dynos-sdql.html

Mako-SBR · 02-21-14, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Wojo

Hi Dynobites,
Having a data sample of 4, 6, or even 12 games isn't mathematically very reliable. Just something to consider. GL2A!

Very true unfortunately, and it's part of the reason team trends usually cause bankroll drama for those that believe in them. I prefer situational plays that have at least 5+ successive winning seasons behind them for that very reason.

Originally posted by Noleafclover

That's sick. BTW all, heat qualify as revenging a home-opener ats loss of 10+. However, I think a significant reason that situation does so well is because the huge disappointment influences perception and the line for the following game - but perception of the Heat is still high and the line is still giving a lot of respect.

I'm thinking of parlaying them with the over anyway, because I don't think their D can shut down OKC, so I feel if they do cover it goes over. And there are other reasons to like the over that I'll leave unstated here. Only worry of an okc no-show and under is if Westbrook comes out sub-zero - even cool he'll increase the pace of the game.

Nice read Leaf, tailed it with a half unit after reading your synopsis.

Originally posted by JMon

Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself.

. Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases

Thanks J, looking forward to MLB because I have no systems for it as it's not a sport I have experience betting and am excited to see what others with winning seasons come up with. Saw your nice NHL query today in the group btw and definitely saved it.

husky · 02-21-14, 07:20 PM

I love this thread. I am interested in using 2-3 teams in moneyline parlays. So do any of you have any insight of any subsets that hit at a high rate ATS using favorites? My idea is that I would then take these teams on the moneyline. Thoughts?

Wojo · 02-22-14, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by husky

I love this thread. I am interested in using 2-3 teams in moneyline parlays. So do any of you have any insight of any subsets that hit at a high rate ATS using favorites? My idea is that I would then take these teams on the moneyline. Thoughts?

I personally don't use the SDQL to determine moneyline parlays. I realize they have become popular.

I am more like Mako looking for longer term consistent league-wide trends.

Short term small data-set team trends, like Dynobites is posting, historically have not done well.

But, who knows, maybe they will produce a lot of winners. I won't be following them, though.

Even longer term team trends are difficult to understand when you have a high-turnover in players and coaches.

But, it's your money.

GL2A!!!!!!

b1slickguy · 02-23-14, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by figue

heat winner

Fading them today.
Some other possible plays using sdqls within the thread, too. Good luck.

Mako-SBR · 02-23-14, 03:08 PM

Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006

JMon · 02-23-14, 03:48 PM

Nice mako...do you use "group bys" for quicker filtering? They are wonderful

Mako-SBR · 02-23-14, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Nice mako...do you use "group bys" for quicker filtering? They are wonderful

Ha, before I learned about that I was manually copy/pasting ranges and groups into Excel while doing research and when I found out about it my first thought was "I don't want to know how many hours I wasted doing it the long way..."

JMon · 02-23-14, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Ha, before I learned about that I was manually copy/pasting ranges and groups into Excel while doing research and when I found out about it my first thought was "I don't want to know how many hours I wasted doing it the long way..."

lol...me too.

makecash4me · 02-23-14, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006

..

make me some cash now, go data mine and give me some good plays

JMon · 02-23-14, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by makecash4me

....fking bitch

make me some cash now, go data mine and give me some good plays

lol. Shocked it went at least 3 pages before a ghost arrived

parlayin · 02-23-14, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Nice mako...do you use "group bys" for quicker filtering? They are wonderful

can you explain this command/function? never used it before

makecash4me · 02-23-14, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by JMon

lol. Shocked it went at least 3 pages before a ghost arrived

hey how about u shut it unless you gonna post your hundreds of situations to make me money

i aint got time to do it so since u already did the work just share it all or gtfo

figue · 02-23-14, 08:28 PM

i find some systems could you help me with the sdql ?? do you used any of them ??

 Baseball's Departing Dogs
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 What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series.
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oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>ES-MX</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> High Scoring Favorites System Baseball betting is certainly a different animal than football or basketball, as there is no point spread involved. You simply pick the winner of the game, although that's easier said than done in many cases.
Everybody can pick the obvious big favorites, although you'll be asked to lay such a high price on them it can be counterproductive to wager on these teams.
Bettors still tend to over-react a bit to the previous game and naturally like to bet the favorites, so this system looks to take advantage of both situations. It's shown a healthy profit, despite a low winning percentage, so obviously it will be on a lot of bigger underdogs.
Since the start of the 2010 season, home favorites off a win in which they scored six or more runs are 378-287, which is a winning percentage of roughly 57 percent. But those teams are favored by an avaerage price of -155, which makes them a terrible betting proposition.
On the other side of the equation, taking the opposite side at an average price of +145 would show a profit of 24.30 units since the start of the 2010 season, which is solid for such an easy to use method.
That's all there is to it. Simply take away underdogs playing an opponent who is off a victory in which they scored six or more runs.
Obviously this method will yield quite a few plays and is for those who like lots of action. If history repeats itself, you'll also be up a fair amount at the end of the year.
Series Starter System
This week we'll look at another system that typically will have us on the underdog, although it does pick favorites now and then. It did show a small profit for the 2009 season, which we have discussed on a number of occasions.
The system did much better in 2010 and is off to a solid start in 2011.
The situation we're looking for are teams off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series. We'll look to bet against these teams.
Because the team is at home they'll more often that not be the favorite and since they're coming off a win in which they hit the ball fairly well, the line may be slightly inflated. It doesn't matter if the game in which they won with the 10 or more hits was at home or away. All we're looking for is a qualifying win.
The Yearly Breakdown
2009 74-84 +505
2010 88-85 +2536
2010 30-28 +773
The game in question could have been played the previous day or two days prior if they had a day off.
It's another fairly simple system that has fared well over the past few years with an overall record since the start of the 2009 season of 192-197, but with an average price of +126, so it's shown a profit of 38.14 units, which is solid for such an easy method.

Baseball's Low Scoring Winners
So far each of our weekly systems have dealt with underdogs, but this week we'll look at a method that pertains to both underdogs and favorites. Our only requirement is that the team we're backing is at home.
This is one of those methods that is embarrassingly simple, yet has produced a decent profit in each of the last three seasons. So far in the 2011 season it is showing a slight loss, which is somewhat expected as it does tend to back favorites more than underdogs, and ass we have mentioned, the best time for wagering on underdogs is typically during the first half of the year.
This is somewhat of an offshoot of our earlier underdog system, Baseball's Low Scoring Underdog Winners, however now, we're simply looking at the home team.
This simple system tells us to back any home team that won its previous game while scoring three runs or less. That's all there is to it.
Such a simple method has produced the following results:
2008 140-92 +2115
2009 129-87 +2170
2010 145-112 +948
2011 18-17 -134
As mentioned above, this is a method that I would expect to do better the second half of the season than the first, so the 18-17 record through the first month of April isn't really troubling.
Remember, the team in question can be favored or be tabbed as the underdog. Our only requirement is that they are the home team.
This method will give you more plays than our typical underdog system and is good for those who like to wager on more games. Good luck.
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figue · 02-23-14, 08:31 PM

Baseball's Comeback Kids This system is another that pertains to either favorites or underdogs and gives out some of each. The average lay price since 2008 is -110, which is the same as you would lay in football and basketball. In our other systems this year, we've talked about the long baseball season and the highs and lows that can be expected to occur. We generally look for teams that figure to be on highs, meaning they have some momentum. Here, we're looking for teams that were able to overcome a sloppy pitching performance and still get a victory. By sloppy, we're referring to the number of walks that a team allows. The system is to bet on any teams its next game after seeing its pitchers allow five or more walks, provided that team came from behind to take the win. For an example, we'll use the Chicago Cubs game of May 18. In that game, the Cubs found themselves trailing 5-3 after five innings, but Chicago scored two in the sixth to tie and two in the eighth to take the 7-5 win. In the game, Cubs pitchers walked five batters, which made the Cubs a play in their next game on May 19. The Cubs pulled off their first series sweep of the season, grabbing a 5-1 win on May 19 as a healthy underdog. Here are the year-by-year records for the system:
2008 144-121 +2175
2009 151-132 +735
2010 117-94 +1867
2011 35-31 +227
Total 447-378 +5004 The record isn't bad for such an easy method. <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:HyphenationZone>21</w:HyphenationZone> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

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makecash4me · 02-23-14, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by figue

i find some systems could you help me with the sdql ?? do you used any of them ??

 Baseball's Departing Dogs
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 What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series.
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ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> High Scoring Favorites System Baseball betting is certainly a different animal than football or basketball, as there is no point spread involved. You simply pick the winner of the game, although that's easier said than done in many cases.
Everybody can pick the obvious big favorites, although you'll be asked to lay such a high price on them it can be counterproductive to wager on these teams.
Bettors still tend to over-react a bit to the previous game and naturally like to bet the favorites, so this system looks to take advantage of both situations. It's shown a healthy profit, despite a low winning percentage, so obviously it will be on a lot of bigger underdogs.
Since the start of the 2010 season, home favorites off a win in which they scored six or more runs are 378-287, which is a winning percentage of roughly 57 percent. But those teams are favored by an avaerage price of -155, which makes them a terrible betting proposition.
On the other side of the equation, taking the opposite side at an average price of +145 would show a profit of 24.30 units since the start of the 2010 season, which is solid for such an easy to use method.
That's all there is to it. Simply take away underdogs playing an opponent who is off a victory in which they scored six or more runs.
Obviously this method will yield quite a few plays and is for those who like lots of action. If history repeats itself, you'll also be up a fair amount at the end of the year.
Series Starter System
This week we'll look at another system that typically will have us on the underdog, although it does pick favorites now and then. It did show a small profit for the 2009 season, which we have discussed on a number of occasions.
The system did much better in 2010 and is off to a solid start in 2011.
The situation we're looking for are teams off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series. We'll look to bet against these teams.
Because the team is at home they'll more often that not be the favorite and since they're coming off a win in which they hit the ball fairly well, the line may be slightly inflated. It doesn't matter if the game in which they won with the 10 or more hits was at home or away. All we're looking for is a qualifying win.
The Yearly Breakdown
2009 74-84 +505
2010 88-85 +2536
2010 30-28 +773
The game in question could have been played the previous day or two days prior if they had a day off.
It's another fairly simple system that has fared well over the past few years with an overall record since the start of the 2009 season of 192-197, but with an average price of +126, so it's shown a profit of 38.14 units, which is solid for such an easy method.

Baseball's Low Scoring Winners
So far each of our weekly systems have dealt with underdogs, but this week we'll look at a method that pertains to both underdogs and favorites. Our only requirement is that the team we're backing is at home.
This is one of those methods that is embarrassingly simple, yet has produced a decent profit in each of the last three seasons. So far in the 2011 season it is showing a slight loss, which is somewhat expected as it does tend to back favorites more than underdogs, and ass we have mentioned, the best time for wagering on underdogs is typically during the first half of the year.
This is somewhat of an offshoot of our earlier underdog system, Baseball's Low Scoring Underdog Winners, however now, we're simply looking at the home team.
This simple system tells us to back any home team that won its previous game while scoring three runs or less. That's all there is to it.
Such a simple method has produced the following results:
2008 140-92 +2115
2009 129-87 +2170
2010 145-112 +948
2011 18-17 -134
As mentioned above, this is a method that I would expect to do better the second half of the season than the first, so the 18-17 record through the first month of April isn't really troubling.
Remember, the team in question can be favored or be tabbed as the underdog. Our only requirement is that they are the home team.
This method will give you more plays than our typical underdog system and is good for those who like to wager on more games. Good luck.
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ya thats what im talking bout jose, yo mako or jmon get to work if you're on the thread

capping? fk that when u got bitches to do the work for you

JMon · 02-23-14, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by parlayin

can you explain this command/function? never used it before

easy to catch large data in a single query...good for filtering.

For instance...

total>=125,120, 115, 100

line>=10,9,8,7,6

line<=-10,-9,-8,-7,-6

WP>=50, 45, 40, 35 and site

b1slickguy · 02-23-14, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by JMon

lol...me too.

Me, too. Still have that taped to my old laptop with the EMICH data. lol

JMon · 02-23-14, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Me, too. Still have that taped to my old laptop with the EMICH data. lol

good ol' Emich...good while it lasted. I'll let you tackle Fig's data. I am f'n beet from the trip and the o'lady saying she wants a piece.

makecash4me · 02-23-14, 09:44 PM

help jose fker, and wheres the plays the games started already

post some fkin plays for tomorrow

give some winners fkers thats what this thread is for

figue · 02-23-14, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Yes, I have many doggies. I will post a few when they come active.

some others ::

 Baseball's Better Dogs As most readers know, when it comes to handicappers, I consider Jim Barnes one of the sharpest minds ever. Barnes has long been a believer that most baseball bettors concentrate too much on the starting pitchers. Instead of analyzing how a starting pitcher is going to fare against the team he is facing, they tend to compare the starting pitchers against each other and wager on the better of the two. The old adages that baseball is 90-percent pitching and that good pitching beats good hitting aren't necessarily true, but they make good conversation pieces for play-by-play broadcasters to mention during a telecast. This week's baseball system follows the rationale that too much weight is given to the starting pitcher and not enough to the team aspect. Like the other weekly systems, plays can be determined pretty quickly with not much effort. What we're looking for are home underdogs of +110 or greater that have a better record than their opponent. That's all there is to it. Going back to the start of the 2009 season, we find a yearly record of:
2009: 38-34 +$1,305
2010: 27-26 +$895
2011: 7-4 +$550 Now there two reasons why a team with a worse record will be at least -120 road favorite. The most obvious reason is that they have their ace pitcher going. The second-most likely reason is that the home team has its worst pitcher going. But this appears to be another case of the starting pitchers getting too much credit in the betting line and not enough weight is being given to the better team. These situations don't occur all that often, but they proven to be worth keeping an eye out for. Underdog betting systems aren't for everybody, as you're going to lose more wagers than you win and you'll likely have longer losing streaks. But at the end of the season, you should be on the plus side of ledger, which is what it's all about. Baseball Pitcher Form Reversal Baseball betting is a game of numbers, which is one reason it ranks well behind football and basketball in popularity among the public. There are so many statistics for baseball bettors to decipher, given enough time, it's likely that a case could be made for each and every team on any particular day. Starting pitchers get most of the attention from a bettor's standpoint, which makes sense, as that is the one person who is most likely to single-handedly win or lose a ballgame. But as baseball bettors know all too well, starting pitchers don't always live up to their form every time they take the mound. If they did, baseball betting would be the easiest sport to handicap and bettors would make a fortune. One of the most key components for baseball bettors is to try and predict when a pitcher is going to live up to his statistics, as all starting pitchers will have good games and bad ones. A starter with an ERA of 4.00 isn't going to allow four runs every time he takes the mound. One statistic that is readily available in many newspapers and websites is what a pitcher has done in his last three starts. Many baseball bettors make the mistake of wanting to back the hot pitcher, when in fact that pitcher is the one most likely to have a setback. A pitcher with a season ERA of 4.78, but an ERA of 2.68 in his last three starts may appear to be a solid bet, but there's a reason the pitcher has such a high ERA to begin with. This little method of predicting a pitcher's form reversal was first introduced to me by Jim Barnes, one of my favorite sports betting authors of all-time. If you happen to come across his Journal of Handicapping books, snatch them up, as there is plenty of great advice contained in those pages. The great thing about Barnes was that he threw out plenty of ideas and let readers determine their value. What Barnes suggested when looking a starting pitcher and their recent form was to take the pitcher's season ERA and double it. Then subtract the pitcher's ERA from the last three games to get an estimate of their expected performance. Using the example above, by taking the pitcher's season ERA of 4.78 and doubling it, we would get a total of 9.56. Subtract the three-game ERA of 2.68 and our expected ERA of the pitcher becomes a whopping 6.88, and this is when most bettors will be backing this pitcher on the assumption that he has a hot hand. On the other side of the equation, if a pitcher has a season ERA of 3.86 and a three-game ERA of 5.00, we can expect a better performance today, as his expected ERA becomes 2.72 for today's game. The key concept behind this method is that starting pitchers will perform at their expected level over the course of the season. A good pitcher with several bad starts in a row should be expected to revert back to the form that established them as a good pitcher. While a bad pitcher with several strong starts should be expected to show why he is a bad pitcher over time. As an added bonus, baseball bettors using this method are more likely to receive a little added value on their wagers, as many times they will be bucking the public, who loves to hop aboard or hop off of the bandwagon. This little technique isn't going to be the key to untold riches, but like any article written about sports gambling, is something the bettor should be aware of and determine its merit in their own handicapping technique. Baseball Divisional Underdog Method No other sport will see a team go through as many peaks and valleys as baseball. Not only is this due to the sheer number of games each team plays, but also due to the number of games played on consecutive days. While the NBA may make an issue out of teams playing three games in four days, it isn't unusual to see baseball teams playing 10 or more days in a row. For that reason, the sports is also more prone to streaks, both winning and losing that the others, even though at the end of the season the worst baseball teams will have a higher winning percentage than the worse NBA team, while the best baseball team will have a lower winning percentage than the best NBA squad. Some baseball bettors have a rule not to bet on a team that didn't win its previous game. That might be a little too much, but at least there is some rationale for that train of thought, especially when betting underdogs. In fact, taking divisional underdogs off a straight up win, either over today's opponent or the previous team it played, has been one of the most successful systems over the past seven seasons, showing a profit in six of the seven years. The lone exception was 2009, a year in which underdog bettors shudder just thinking about, as favorites won an extraordinary number of games that season. Yearly Breakdown A year by year breakdown of how divisional underdogs have fared by units won:
2004 +27.50
2005 +63.95
2006 +33.10
2007 +28.5
2008 +60.60
2009 -19.30
2010 +25.45 It's easy to believe that 2009 was simply an aberration, do to the extreme number of favorites that won. On the positive side, every other season made enough of a profit to cover the one losing season, so I wouldn't hesitate to follow it again in 2011. Baseball's Beaten Favorites With a season that is 162 games long, it's only natural that there will be days Major League Baseball teams don't give their best efforts. Playing day-after-day can take its toll on the players both mentally and physically, and as baseball bettors, one of the things we try to predict is when those games will be, as well as those games when a team is likely to go all-out for a victory. One scenario where a team has given that little bit of extra effort in the past is when they have lost the previous game as a favorite of -200 or more and are playing the same opponent again today, as long as it is playing a team outside its division. As we mentioned in the article divisional underdogs have historically been decent wagers in the past, as teams are more likely to give their best efforts against a team in the same division. A team that defeats a divisional favorite on one day is just as likely to be up for the next game, since they are still playing in its division, while a team that wins as a large non-divisional underdog is more prone to a bit of a letdown the next day.
A six-year study of losing favorites of -200 or more show they have responded with a 514-295 record for a gain of 93.87 units in the next game, provided they are playing a non-divisional team. Bettors can tell from the gain of units, compared to the record, they will be again be laying some decent odds, but the risk has been worth it, as teams in this situation have won 63.5-percent of their games the next time out. Even though the little guy may defeat the big favorite on occasion, you can bet the big guy will pick himself up and be out for revenge the following day<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:HyphenationZone>21</w:HyphenationZone> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

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b1slickguy · 02-23-14, 10:24 PM

Thanks for sharing, Figue.

Series Starter

Play against teams off a win in a game in which they had more than 10 hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series.

H and SG=1 and p:W and p:hits>10 and season=2009,2010,2011,2012,2013

Had to alter to "more than 10 hits" to produce the posted numbers.
It appears since the 2012 season the play would be the opposite, but for less ROI. Will look at the others, too.
Good luck.

b1slickguy · 02-23-14, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by makecash4me

help jose fker, and wheres the plays the games started already

post some fkin plays for tomorrow

give some winners fkers thats what this thread is for

Take a look at post#1.
There's your play for tomorrow, skippy.
Want me to click "SUBMIT" for ya, too?
Good luck.

makecash4me · 02-23-14, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Take a look at post#1.
There's your play for tomorrow, skippy.
Want me to click "SUBMIT" for ya, too?
Good luck.

very funny theres no play there

figue · 02-23-14, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Thanks for sharing, Figue.

Series Starter

Play against teams off a win in a game in which they had more than 10 hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series.

H and SG=1 and p:W and p:hits>10 and season=2009,2010,2011,2012,2013

Had to alter to "more than 10 hits" to produce the posted numbers.
It appears since the 2012 season the play would be the opposite, but for less ROI. Will look at the others, too.
Good luck.

thanks buddy

Noleafclover · 02-23-14, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Thanks for sharing, Figue.

Series Starter

Play against teams off a win in a game in which they had more than 10 hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series.

H and SG=1 and p:W and p:hits>10 and season=2009,2010,2011,2012,2013

Had to alter to "more than 10 hits" to produce the posted numbers.
It appears since the 2012 season the play would be the opposite, but for less ROI. Will look at the others, too.
Good luck.

The reasoning behind that one seems kinda odd. They just had 10 hits, and the system wants you to fade them. For some reason I have an easier time believing a pitcher will regress (one of the others) than hitters. Hitting seems streakier, somehow? But I'm far from a great baseball mind, not much of a fan at all.

figue · 02-23-14, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Basically with that one you're going against the public (and books) overall tendencies by betting on a shitty away dog having a bad season going up against a home favorite that has another game after this one at home (i.e., the home fav is mentally overlooking it off and thinking the match will be an easy pounding, essentially a trap game).

I modded it to eliminate early matchups in the season and late matchups, as the psychology for both of those timeframes is far different than the grind of the mid-season, especially towards the end when a strong team is in the middle of their playoff fight.

Also, you have to watch that the game isn't a TNT game, or a big TV game, because the home fav will definitely show up and pound the dog if there's a national audience watching.

But even with those caveats it's a winner year after year, and it's easy to see why.

Those are the scenarios and systems I enjoy playing, because the filters are minimal and the logic is strong in terms of "why" the results are the way they are. I stay away from the "88% Win ATS, 17-1" systems because the sample size is way too small and the win rate is way too high.

I just want to scrape out 60%, I'm not greedy.

Well maybe a little...

tomorrow Timberwolves bol.

figue · 02-23-14, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by figue

tomorrow Timberwolves bol.

sorry my bad was today,glad i missed lol.