Leans for Wednesday 3/4/09

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  • BrandonLaz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-18-08
    • 855

    #36
    Well I will have to just lay off of the Boston -6. The public is all over it and everybody on here is all over it. I just can not play a game with this many people loading up on it.

    Largest Play San Antonio Spurs (+2.5) vs Dallas Mavericks


    I am not sold on the thought that the Mavericks have totally figured things out. They are a much better team at home yes, but after a loss against OKC they have to come back home to play the Spurs. The Spurs intimidate this Mavericks team who only have beat the Spurs once in the last 6 matchups. Now they are favored against a team they struggle against? I just don't get that next we look at how good the Spurs have been when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season going a nice 8-3 ATS, 19-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game, and a pretty decent 18-12 ATS on the road. The Mavericks have a lot of work to do to prove to me they are a different team than the one that lost to this Spurs team by 17 just two weeks ago. Taking the Spurs here as I see them rolling.

    San Antonio Spurs (+2.5)

    2nd Largest Play Atlanta Hawks (pk) vs New York Knicks

    Nate Robinson is supposed to sit out this game which hurts them when Duhon is not on the court. The Hawks have had 4 straight ATS covers, and granted they are only 2-2 SU during those 4 games in the 2 losses they barely lost. Against Denver they lost by 1 and against the Cavs they lost by 1 point with the way the Knicks play defense it will be no problem for them to lock down on D in the 4th quarter and get the win by playing tough physical defense something that the Knicks can not do to them. The Knicks have covered just once in their last 5 games and showed their lack of dicipline as they let Wade lead the Heat from a 15 point defecit in the 4th quarter come back to win the game.

    Atlanta Hawks (pk)


    3rd Strongest Play Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz (-8.5)

    Both these teams are playing great basketball right now. Utah though has been the better team overal and for gamblers. During the second half of the season the Jazz are 10-2 ATS, 20-12 ATS in all of their home games, and over the last three seasons they are a good 6-3 ATS when playing at home against the Rockets. I see revenge being a big factor here due to the fact that the Jazz lost by 9 on the road to Houston in Januarary. The Jazz have been playing much better ball since then and have finally started to get healthy. Houston is coming off a 10 point win last night against the Raptors, but that game was much closer than the final score shows. It was a ball game until halfway through the 4th quarter. Tired legs are going to be a problem in this game for Houston late.

    Utah Jazz (-8.5)
    Comment
    • repski
      SBR MVP
      • 02-01-09
      • 1929

      #37
      UTAH/Houston under 201.5
      -The Rockets have allowed 93 PPG in their last five
      -Utah has allowed just 95 PPG in their last five
      -Utah has held four of their last six opponents in the 80s.
      -Houston has allowed only one team to score more than 100 in their last nine games.
      -Five of the last six games for Utah have gone under.
      Comment
      • alukk
        SBR MVP
        • 01-29-09
        • 1544

        #38
        Originally posted by pho3nix32

        Keys to an Atlanta cover:

        1. Hawks have same healthy squad that brought the Celtics to a game 7 in the first round last year.
        2. Knicks have Larry Hughes.
        Lol everybody hates him
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #39
          Larry Hughes is an awful jumpshooter. It's almost like you're surprised when it goes in. He should just go tothe hole and stop shooting jumpers. I think that will work better. but the funny thing is that when he was at St. Louis he was a fine outside shooter. Maybe he's elevating a little too much now....
          Comment
          • alukk
            SBR MVP
            • 01-29-09
            • 1544

            #40
            well pretty good day for me yesterday 3-0.
            So lets keep it going
            Comment
            • djpremier36
              SBR MVP
              • 12-11-08
              • 3479

              #41
              Originally posted by cocknocker
              Larry Hughes is an awful jumpshooter. It's almost like you're surprised when it goes in. He should just go tothe hole and stop shooting jumpers. I think that will work better. but the funny thing is that when he was at St. Louis he was a fine outside shooter. Maybe he's elevating a little too much now....
              The funny thing is that Hughes is actually seeing a "shooting coach", in former NBA sharp shooter Mark Price.

              His shooting %'s are better than years past.
              Comment
              • repski
                SBR MVP
                • 02-01-09
                • 1929

                #42
                Originally posted by djpremier36
                The funny thing is that Hughes is actually seeing a "shooting coach", in former NBA sharp shooter Mark Price.

                His shooting %'s are better than years past.
                The Sixers passed up Paul Pierce to take Hughes..when all the fans in philly were clammoring for Pierce....
                Comment
                • nonsense48
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-15-08
                  • 2927

                  #43
                  ck, is there a consensus on a certain game tonite?
                  Comment
                  • Dexter
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-24-08
                    • 25829

                    #44
                    great write ups brandonlaz, and repski
                    Comment
                    • JGILL50
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-31-08
                      • 836

                      #45
                      i dont bet college much but something has to be up with ball st at western mich -4.5 to -6 with 65% on ball st its worth a unit IMO
                      Comment
                      • nonsense48
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-15-08
                        • 2927

                        #46
                        DEX, who is your hot pick for this eve? i know mine and i'm getting a few other ppl to see if there's agreement on one team and i'm going to hit it and if not i'll just go with my 2 booked plays.
                        Comment
                        • nonsense48
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-15-08
                          • 2927

                          #47
                          booked 3 team parlay:
                          cle ml
                          bos ml
                          s.a. ml
                          Comment
                          • vassman86
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-11-08
                            • 1042

                            #48
                            Celtics -5.5
                            The poor Nets will have to feel the wrath of the Celtics coming off of another home loss. The Celtics have performed well after their previous two home losses. In both cases, they won SU and ATS on the road following their home loss. Tonight's game against the Nets fits that bill, and it helps that the Celtics absolutely own the Nets.

                            Jazz -8
                            A rested Jazz team at home, Rockets on a b2b and fourth game in fifth nights. In conjunction with the thin air, the Rockets will be gasping for air and feeling the rubber-leg effect after the first half.

                            Bucks +13
                            Though the Cavs are a force to be reckoned with, the Bucks are 4-1 ATS in Cleveland over the past three seasons. I feel that 13 points are too many to give to the Bucks. Once the Cavs are comfortable with their lead, LeBron will be sitting on the bench, allowing the Bucks to get the cover.

                            Blazers -9.5
                            Portland has won 12 of it's past 13 home games with the loss coming to Cleveland. ATS, they are 8-4-1. They've won nine straight games at home. Portland is playing playoff calibur basketball right now, and I'll gladly ride the wave as they get their tenth straight home victory.
                            Comment
                            • suckatmyjob
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-12-09
                              • 785

                              #49
                              seems like consensus is on ATL, BOS, and SAN ANT
                              Comment
                              • schaapattack
                                Restricted User
                                • 12-23-08
                                • 1007

                                #50
                                COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY

                                Depaul +22

                                I can't believe the line is this high. Depaul stays well within this number tonight. Another one of those WTF is up line. Last time they were 25 pt dogs versus Pitt and covered.

                                West Virginia is coming off of three straight road games, and they have a home game against Louisville looming on Saturday. The spread is a bit high, no doubt. The spread is too high for me to back WVU in this game, especially with Louisville coming up on Saturday.

                                I just don't see WVA getting motivated for this cupcake tonight. I think they build a lead and Depaul gets the cover in the end. Hard for WVA to get excited for this game with Louisville on deck.
                                Comment
                                • holdplz
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-05-09
                                  • 113

                                  #51
                                  Yeah but Depaul f**king suck: They just lost by 21 at home to St Johns! The better college Dog of the day is Marquette IMO, who are actually a good team playing a game they can win.
                                  Comment
                                  • nonsense48
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-15-08
                                    • 2927

                                    #52
                                    yo curious, who's your play of the day or should i ask who's blazes' paid for play of the day? nevermind.
                                    Comment
                                    • The_Kid
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-09-08
                                      • 5049

                                      #53
                                      Throwing a little on the Milwaukee ML. Cleveland has a big game vs Boston coming up so they could be looking ahead. If I remember correctly last time, it took a big game from Lebron and a big 2H in order for the Cavs to win up in Milwaukee a couple weeks back. I already think the spread is too high and if they can at least contain Lebron, then maybe they can pull off the upset. At +1000, I'll take my chances and hope the Bucks give the Cavs a run for their money!
                                      Comment
                                      • nonsense48
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-15-08
                                        • 2927

                                        #54
                                        vas, i like portland as well but capped the game at portland by 7 so it's a no-play for me
                                        Comment
                                        • nonsense48
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-15-08
                                          • 2927

                                          #55
                                          i love larry hughes as long as he's inactive or has the flu
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #56
                                            non - im too cold to be saying what pick i love etc....read my writeups and im sure you can tell
                                            Comment
                                            • MVFC182
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-08-08
                                              • 112

                                              #57
                                              Taking:
                                              Okc -4 v Wiz
                                              Clev -4 1st quarter
                                              Knicks/Hawks Under 215
                                              Pacers +10 vs Portland
                                              Utah/Houston Over 201
                                              Comment
                                              • redbull
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-11-09
                                                • 391

                                                #58
                                                utah will win up to 15
                                                so take utah + ( -3 = -11.5 ) for nice extra money

                                                texax duel , spurs hold`em
                                                + under 189

                                                boston -7 , hit the green

                                                atlanta everybody darling , once more

                                                cavalier win but not clear 13.5

                                                *edited*
                                                forget ....

                                                Under Portland 208
                                                Comment
                                                • nonsense48
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-15-08
                                                  • 2927

                                                  #59
                                                  DEX, i figure that it's time for you to start hitting again. get 'em buddy
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nonsense48
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-15-08
                                                    • 2927

                                                    #60
                                                    kid, i know the bucks are playing great ball as of late but playing them su in cle takes stones. i can't say good luck cuz i have cle su in a parlay.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • peetlui
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                      • 469

                                                      #61
                                                      MVFC, which book is giving Clev -2 in the 1stQ?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by The_Kid
                                                        Throwing a little on the Milwaukee ML. Cleveland has a big game vs Boston coming up so they could be looking ahead. If I remember correctly last time, it took a big game from Lebron and a big 2H in order for the Cavs to win up in Milwaukee a couple weeks back. I already think the spread is too high and if they can at least contain Lebron, then maybe they can pull off the upset. At +1000, I'll take my chances and hope the Bucks give the Cavs a run for their money!
                                                        nice research...milw does play them tough in cleav. this could have a nice ROI.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • nonsense48
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-15-08
                                                          • 2927

                                                          #63
                                                          peet, i see cle-4 1st q and-7 1st 1/2
                                                          Comment
                                                          • peetlui
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 469

                                                            #64
                                                            I see the same non, if it was -2 1st Q I'd be all over it. Bookmaker whom I use has them at -4.5, a bit too steep for me.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BrandonLaz
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-18-08
                                                              • 855

                                                              #65
                                                              Final Card

                                                              Spurs ML
                                                              Hawks PK
                                                              Jazz -8
                                                              Marquette +10
                                                              Virginia Tech +9.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MVFC182
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-08-08
                                                                • 112

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by peetlui
                                                                MVFC, which book is giving Clev -2 in the 1stQ?
                                                                Ahh sorry mate, meant -4. Ill edit my post.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • showtime2000
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-09-08
                                                                  • 1054

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Just to hitch on the Cle/Mil game, line opened at -13.5 and dropped to -13 with 74% on Clev.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nonsense48
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-15-08
                                                                    • 2927

                                                                    #68
                                                                    well gang, closing up shop and going to dinner. type to ya when i get to the ranch.
                                                                    good luck everyone
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • playazzz2g
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                                      • 46

                                                                      #69
                                                                      im feeling the hawks for tonite
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • peetlui
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 469

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Final ticket:
                                                                        Boston -6 game & -2 1stQ
                                                                        Utah -8
                                                                        8 pt teaser:
                                                                        Boston +2
                                                                        Wash +12.5
                                                                        GS +15.5
                                                                        plays as well

                                                                        Good luck gang
                                                                        Comment
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