Blerp's 1Q Tryout

[blerpblerp]

Hey all,

I had a hot year betting the NFL so now I'm gonna try out the NBA to cure my itch.
I'm not as privy to the goings-on of the NBA, though. Its hard to keep up with injuries/scheduling advantages/etc, so I'm starting this thread to encourage criticism + discussion on picks.

I've been following 1Q for the past few weeks and seem to have gotten confident enough to make some of these public...If I end up in the positive, I'll keep going... but if I end up failing miserably I just might have to wait it out till football comes back.

So by all means....comment/criticize/discuss etc...tonight I'm leaning Boston 1Q at home, but have to wait until my book gives me a line. Looks like its gonna be around (-1.5)..but I don't want to fall into the trap of forcing a bet seeing as this is the only game on today.

[blerpblerp]

2/2

Prediction(s): Boston (-2) 1Q

Bet(s): Boston (-2) 1Q

Analysis:
I HATE, HATE, HATE betting FOR bad/toxic teams. Common sense tells me to always bet AGAINST these squads. This is one of my rules ; never pour money into a sh*t team that historically under-performs and never meets expectations. At the surface, Boston looks like a toxic team. However, for some reason they have been having some strong 1Q performances at home recently. If Boston loses this 1Q, they will join my list of toxic teams.

*I liked this 1Q much more when the full line was Bos (-5), figuring to be a (-1) or (-1.5) 1Q, but it has since jumped to -6. My book came out with a 1Q of (-2). I'm not as comfy with this, but I may jump on it anyway. I'll make a decision closer to game time. Right now they will stay as a prediction.

YTD:
Forecasts: 1-0
Wagers: 1-0

[blerpblerp]

2/3

Let's keep it going.

1Q Forecasts:
DAL -3
TOR. -1
WASH +.5
NOP +1

1Q Bets:
DAL -3 LOSS
TOR -1 LOSS
WAS +.5 WIN

[blerpblerp]

Damn, tough night last night. DAL finished -2.....and TOR ended up blowing a 6pt lead in the final half of the 1Q. Twas close...Oh well...I still liked those bets, and WAS pulled it out. Looks like I should've went forward with NOP as well.

YTD
Forecasts: 3-2
Bets: 2-2

Today I'm lovin' :

1Q: PHX (-2.5) LOSS for a double unit. Wished this was at -2, but what can you do. PHX has been hot, and Chi has done tons of traveling, struggled against non-conf. foes, AND has had trouble scoring of late. Lets win some green.

Lets get back to the winning ways. GL to all.

EDIT: Damn!! Should've jumped on Minn 1Q...they consistently but up big points at the start of games, and even moreso at home. Don't know how that one squeaked by...Mental note to pay more attention to their matchups in the future.

Edit2: YUCK...PHX was cold, cold, cold. Too many days off? Look ahead for tomorrow @ HOU? Should've looked into that more. Gonna grab CHA +3.5 to see if I can at least even up for the day. I hate betting bad teams, like CHA but they've played well early the last 4-5 games.

[blerpblerp]

Even for the day. CHA pulled off a strong 1Q.

1Q YTD: 3-3

Too much zigzag results early on. Leaning Houston, Wash, and Dallas tomorrow.

[blerpblerp]

1Q today:

DAL +1 LOSS
WAS pk WIN
NOP -.5 (small play) WIN
SAC pk (changed mind ; was gonna run a small play but backed out)


Not too shabby tonight....wonder if I'll regret backing out on SAC 1Q later tonight.

YTD: 5-4

[blerpblerp]

I hope I don't regret this...TOR is playing their 4th away game in 6 nights...think they come out flat against a Sac team that is playing a little better with Cousins back....adding it back in

SAC 1Q (pk)

[blerpblerp]

SAC pulled it out, TOR certainly came out flat.

YTD: 6-4

Not seeing any interesting matchups tomorrow. SAS are on a B2B tomorrow @BRK, coming off a 2OT fiasco....but I'm not a fan of BRK pulling off 1Q leads anyway....Not sure if I like that GS line vs Chicago.

Will resume picks Friday if GS doesn't tempt me tomm.

[blerpblerp]

Grabbed WAS 1Q (-2.5) early today. I hope they don't come out fatigued after the 2OT.

Will post more tonight. Leaning Bos and Dal....looking at NOP/min right now.

[blerpblerp]

WAS 1Q - WIN

I thought the Cavs were gonna pull that one off to be honest...they've been chucking up 3s more than usual in that 1Q and I thought that was gonna bite me square in the a**.


EDIT:

Add in: DAL 1Q (-3) Utah could be in revenge mode and they know they have to put up points early to keep this one close...but I still like Dal....they've been very efficient on offense lately, esp early....wanted to take the 1H (-5.5) because Dallas might not get up for this game early-on, but just went with the 1Q. Hope it doesn't bite me.

Leaning NOP...I know Minn puts up TONS of 1Q points, but they may conserve energy and in "look ahead" mode for Portland tomorrow at home. IDK yet though...Love is playing.

Glad I didn't grab BOS. No Rondo, no Bradley meant no-go for me.

[blerpblerp]

DAL 1Q: WIN

I'm torn on 1Q Minn ...NOP has been VERY tough early in games lately, so I hate betting against them + A.Davis. I hope Love is 100% as Minn rarely loses consecutive 1Qs (they lost 1Q yesterday).

Oh well, gonna pull the trigger. Only because I don't like any of the games tomorrow. I shouldn't bet willy-nilly like this...but I had a nice pair of picks earlier and also won Dallas 1H (but don't count it because it's not a 1Q bet) so maybe I can make it 4-0 for the day.

MIN 1Q (pk)

[blerpblerp]

MIN 1Q (pk) WIN

On a roll tonight!! Got lucky on that one...Anthony Davis was pretty much NOPs whole offense...4-0 for the day but 3-0 on posted 1Q picks.

I think I'm gonnna quit while I'm ahead. 4-0, so feel free to fade my next pick lol...I want to take LAC (-1.5) 1Q tonight, but I might stay away from it while I'm ahead...even though this is TORs like what 5th away game in 8 nights? Is that right? They would be the team to fade IMO.

Blerp's 1Q YTD: 9-4

[blerpblerp]

Alright, alright....took LAC (-1.5)....after this I'm done I swear....this was for a very small play just for kicks.

[blerpblerp]

1Q LAC (-1.5): WIN

Griffin...pretty much single-handedly...lol.

In general, off to a little bit better start than I had anticipated...which means I should expect a run of misses here shortly.


Blerp's 1Q YTD: 10-4

[blerpblerp]

Alright, bring on the losses....not super confident in these, but I added in some junk squads that hopefully follow their year long trend of playing crappy (UTA and MIL).

PHX (-1)
MIN (pk)
MIA (-3) over UTA
HOU (-3.5) over MIL

[blerpblerp]

MINN - LOSS :special thanks to MINN for resting pretty much their whole team today...wtf
HOU - LOSS: only lost by .5 pt...think I was still the right side w/this
MIA - LOSS: again, still think I was the right side here..MIA coming off plenty of rest and UTA coming off a B2B.
PHX - PUSH started out hot and cooled off...I'll take it.

0-3-1 today.. tough...makes me 10-7-1 YTD

Told ya losses were coming after betting 5-0 yesterday.

Planning on two large plays tomorrow even though I shouldn't do it as I'm still in the positive. Gotta take a risk!

[blerpblerp]

Goin HUGEEE on WAS -1.5. Look at their past 1Qs. Taking a calculated risk. Gotta do it sometime right?

[BigPage25]

Wizard 1st qts have been money this year... wanted to take them too opted for cavs 1st qt instead.... glad we both cashed

[boydako13]

What do u think of phi/clip 1st qtr?..thanks!

[comon kryptonite]

Thinking clips but Sixers keep shooting. Tough call!!!

[blerpblerp]

What do u think of phi/clip 1st qtr?..thanks!

Honestly, I'm staying away from it..don't really have a lean. I usually like the Clip at home, and I like betting against a junk team like Philly, but I stay conservative with my bets (sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't) and I could see this going either way. Also my book has Clip (-5) 1Q...thats large for any team.. If this were -3 or -3.5 I'd think about it...

Clip could come out red-hot with Paul back, OR they could start out flat because the chemistry may not be there and Philly will try to get up for this game (being 16pt dogs).

Staying away from it. BOL though.

[blerpblerp]

Goin HUGEEE on WAS -1.5. Look at their past 1Qs. Taking a calculated risk. Gotta do it sometime right?

*BIG PLAY*
WAS (-1.5) 1Q: WIN

Glad I pulled the trigger on this. Wasn't really in love with any other 1Q lines anyway..Plus, I didn't want to regret not making a massive play with this streak because Dallas had a similar run in December and I kept staying conservative when I should have timed it right and risked a big play. Also, WAS has very tough teams coming up where their 1Q streak will likely end...so I wanted to jump in before the door closed.

YTD: 11-7-1

[blerpblerp]

Wizard 1st qts have been money this year... wanted to take them too opted for cavs 1st qt instead.... glad we both cashed

I'm a Clevelander and I've been watching the 4th Q...now in OT...helluva game.

Takes a lot of balls to bet the Cavs...they've been on my toxic team list as of late so I haven't trusted putting any $$ into them.

Helluva bet though - Cavs certainly playing better after realizing they made a guy get fired, and are definitely taking advantage of Memphis being flat after a B2B traveling from Atl. Nice bet!!

[blerpblerp]

Jumped late on HOU (-1.5)...pissed I didn't get them earlier when it was -1...but oh well. Hopefully Love isn't 100% tonight.

[blerpblerp]

YTD 12-7-1

Rollin' again with WAS 1Q (+1)....we'll see if they can keep it rolling.

[blerpblerp]

YTD 12-7-1

Rollin' again with WAS 1Q (+1)....we'll see if they can keep it rolling.

Typical...my usual book for some reason had a 1Q line for ALL games today EXCEPT this one...it was +1.5 on a few others...but I only have another account on 5Dimes...and it was +1....wtf...push...in this case...oh well. Still gonna keep ridin' them.

YTD 12-7-2

Leaning Lakers and PHX but I think I'll stay off both games today. Who knows what MIA team shows up and I still don't have a lot of faith in LAL even though they tend to put up points in 1Q...might update, not sure.

[blerpblerp]

I'm up a bunch of money thanks to that earlier WAS bet...so I'm extending myself today...I wasn't a fan of betting so close to the all-star break, but there a couple 1Q dogs here that are too good to pass up.

DAL (+3) - is Dirk healthy enough to stay efficient? Ehhh who knows - worth a shot.
WAS (+3) - gotta roll with 'em even though they are probably playing the best early-energy squad
CHA (+2.5) - don't usually like this route, but BRK and starting slow seems to be a recurring theme

[blerpblerp]

Figured WAS would be out-energized early, esp on a B2B...oh well..was still worth a shot, and still a winning night.

YTD 14-8-2