Leans for Saturday 2/28/09 featuring schaapattack Week

[Dexter]

so i've done the complete research on the 4 games in 5 nights angle - going into tonight, fading the team playing 4 in 5 you'd be 23-17 (or 58%)...i was hoping for 60%+, but this is still something i will continue to go 2x on my normal size play for the rest of the year. one game had both teams 4 in 5, and the under hit in that game. there may have been a few more that cancelled each other out, so i'll take another look tomorrow. playing the under when both are 4 in 5 seems very logical.

again, tonights plays are:

sixers - L
rockets - pending
clippers - tip now

nice 0-4 night...

[suckatmyjob]

those SPs were due a day like today after those last few Saturdays but i burned too much from personal plays all well still got all day tomorrow

thanks ck for sharing how to find the SP plays
hockey11 for his hockey plays - man still a sport i want to bet in
baseball - i know nothing
pho3 for that greak milwaukee play

talk to you guys later man start off bad to end the day flat all well

[whatisit]

^^^ horrible luck with phi/hou

[nonsense48]

oh man DEX, that bad? scratch that one.

[nonsense48]

well gang, 9-9-1 today for me but hit a little positive because of a heavier bet on a couple of the plays and only a 10.00 juice loss in mlb. i must say it was a fun day and it satisified the urge so i'll happily say good nite and i'll type to you tomorrow.

[BrandonLaz]

pho3 nice call on the Bucks play I made it my second highest play tonight thanks to your run. I got a lucky cover with Orlando tonight which was my largest, but thanks for the call on the Bucks pho3nix any leans for tomorrow yet?

[suckatmyjob]

thanks non - one day i may venture and play a few of your mlb for pennies GS saved the remaining of the day for me wish i got back home in time to see 2nd half line but all well

[Dexter]

oh man DEX, that bad? scratch that one.

yeah, that fukin bad...

back to my norm 1-2 plays a day

[nonsense48]

DEX, i had 19 plays today and thats just insane. i'm back to my usual no more than 5 a day too.

[pho3nix32]

pho3 nice call on the Bucks play I made it my second highest play tonight thanks to your run. I got a lucky cover with Orlando tonight which was my largest, but thanks for the call on the Bucks pho3nix any leans for tomorrow yet?

dont mention it brandon great job on the magic call!

overall i had a bad day today going 1-2. good thing the bucks won to minimize my losses. lean for tomorrow is the over in the dallas toronto game...will post the writeup in CK's thread for tomorrow.

[shoebox]

yeah, that fukin bad...

back to my norm 1-2 plays a day

skrew it onto today

[LUNT101]

Hey guys, first look at the board and the Pistons REALLY catch my eye. I feel a run from the Pistons, at least as long as Rip is in the starting lineup and the team is trying to get Iverson's back checked out even though MRIs came back negative. The Pistons just beat Orlando in a Power of the East battle and are now sent on a mission to take down the Champion Boston Celtics on the road...BUT without KG. The Pistons might not win this game, but I will gladly take 9.5 points thank you very much.

edit: with 68% on boston, beautiful.

edit 2: and its on National TV!

[Dexter]

ok, went and double checked the numbers for the 4 game in 5 night angle.

going into today, the plays were 22-15. they are now 22-18. im over the 0-3 night, and will continue to play these for the rest of the year. i think it makes sense to fade these teams, and i will continue to go 2x the rest of the year on all of them. end of the season is when teams can really tire, so i would expect this % to go up.

[shoebox]

ok, went and double checked the numbers for the 4 game in 5 night angle.

going into today, the plays were 22-15. they are now 22-18. im over the 0-3 night, and will continue to play these for the rest of the year. i think it makes sense to fade these teams, and i will continue to go 2x the rest of the year on all of them. end of the season is when teams can really tire, so i would expect this % to go up.

definatly be something that you can so long term

[LUNT101]

IDK if I agree with you Dex, maybe you should just use it as a tool to help you cap games instead of relying on them and betting them blindly. Things like the secret play are way more calculated, in a sense. You know what I mean?

[shoebox]

Booked

Utah -4.5

Utah is gonna kill GS, whats sad is they can beat them at there own game. Utahs gonna put on a show mark my words

I believe smart money will be on utah line should b 6-6.5 by tip-off imo

[Dexter]

IDK if I agree with you Dex, maybe you should just use it as a tool to help you cap games instead of relying on them and betting them blindly. Things like the secret play are way more calculated, in a sense. You know what I mean?

yeah i know, but they are kinda rare, and the angle falls in line with what i generally follow..(tired legs etc)....

even after a bad night tonight, its still making money. perhaps next year i'll just add an extra unit or 2 to the games i really like after capping - to try and max out my profit potential..

again, its not like there are a lot of games..40 for the whole year so far.

[shoebox]

Leaning pacers +2, the nuggs should have a huge let down after there victory against the lakeshow in years

[LUNT101]

Yeah I see what you mean, I hope it turns out to be profitable for you. No doubt it has added another weapon to our arsenal though.

[Dexter]

you know what Lunt - i need to take a look at filtering out teams that are on back to back (team you're supposed to play)

tonight, the clippers and sixers would have been filtered out since they both also played last night.

it may be best to play against a 4 in 5 night team with a team that is off at least 1 day....

be back tomorrow with the results of that

[LUNT101]

Oops, misunderstood what you meant. Ya, definitely check that one out. I'm off to bed.

[Dexter]

you know what Lunt - i need to take a look at filtering out teams that are on back to back (team you're supposed to play)

tonight, the clippers and sixers would have been filtered out since they both also played last night.

it may be best to play against a 4 in 5 night team with a team that is off at least 1 day....

be back tomorrow with the results of that

i couldnt fall asleep without knowing.lol...12-9 if you made sure the team you'd be playing was not on a btb (at least one day off)...slightly better %...

[peterpan19]

DEX, go rent a hooker. you'll feel better in the morning after a good blowjob. i know i do.

I know I do too, just went to my favorite girl and she made me forget about that horrible day...

Cant believe Hou and Uta sucked that much

at least ORL and OKC won to reduce the losses

lets get em today, will probably only have 1 or 2 plays for today ... just have to limit myself to the good ones

[peterpan19]

picks I like so far:
Bos 1st qtr, they will come out hot like always and win the first qtr, dont know about the game, but Det played better lately but hell it is still Det

LAL they are mad after that loss and kobe wants a win here and it will be in a blowout way, plus LAL are 7-1 ATS in Pho, projected line -6

NOH -4, ok they had a few close games but they face a NJ team that had a close win against Phi and a super win against CHI, they now won two in a row, they only more than 2 games twice this year

CLE -4, 7-2 ATS and SU in ATL, you just have to take the better team right here

look out for that SA game, dont know what the line will be, but they normally play Por pretty well, 5-1 SU in Por

Den game looked also good, as they are 4-1 ATS and SU, but I feel like they will have a down game after that win against the Lakers

ok so far:
Bos 1st (small)
Lal
NOH -4
CLE -4

pending:
SA
Tor one word: system

[Hue]

Leans Tomorrow.. DET 9.5, NO -4, Ind +2, Hou -5.5, Atl +4, Dal-6.5,Utah -5


Good Luck