Heat open -4 vs Warriors at home?

Seto · 01-02-14, 11:01 PM

Books couldn't have made this one any more obvious

Menses · 01-02-14, 11:09 PM

lol

Jikos · 01-02-14, 11:10 PM

What are you talking about the line was right, Miami is not good at guarding the perimeter, golden state had won 6 in a row and Wades status was unknown, and Miami has been dropping home games left and right to worse teams. Books job is to balance the money and they did just that with all the Miami hopefuls out there and everybody else with a clue both sides were equally attractive at +4.5/-4.5. What is a trap line?

Seto · 01-02-14, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

What are you talking about the line was right, Miami is not good at guarding the perimeter, golden state had won 6 in a row and Wades status was unknown, and Miami has been dropping home games left and right to worse teams. Books job is to balance the money and they did just that with all the Miami hopefuls out there and everybody else with a clue both sides were equally attractive at +4.5/-4.5. What is a trap line?

Miami should not be -4.5 at home against anyone except maybe the Spurs Pacers and Thunder. Get a clue. That's also why it moved to 5.5 but what mattered here was the opener.

Jikos · 01-02-14, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Miami should not be -4.5 at home against anyone except maybe the Spurs Pacers and Thunder. Get a clue. That's also why it moved to 5.5 but what mattered here was the opener.

What makes you believe that? And why did you bet golden state if you thought the edge was on Miami -4.5? Evenly matched teams get 3 points on the road. You're saying that you think golden state should be an underdog to pk at home?

bjb7223 · 01-02-14, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

What makes you believe that? And why did you bet golden state if you thought the edge was on Miami -4.5? Evenly matched teams get 3 points on the road. You're saying that you think golden state should be an underdog to pk at home?

Seto is right. Hell they were only -3 against the Pacers. I wish I would of saw this. golden State beat the Heat in Miami last year too so it means nothing. Golden State should be +8 in Miami.

Seto · 01-02-14, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by bjb7223

Seto is right. Hell they were only -3 against the Pacers. I wish I would of saw this. golden State beat the Heat in Miami last year too so it means nothing. Golden State should be +8 in Miami.

I'm not even going to try explaining it any further to the guy. I've tried discussing stuff in the past with him it's just not worth the effort.

Not sure about 8 but I'd say 6.5-7 woulda sounded about right.

Books liked GS. They opened -4. They got Miami action. They won. End of story.

Jikos · 01-02-14, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by bjb7223

Seto is right. Hell they were only -3 against the Pacers. I wish I would of saw this. golden State beat the Heat in Miami last year too so it means nothing. Golden State should be +8 in Miami.

Why should golden state be +8 in Miami??? Who is gonna lay 8 against a top tier team anywhere? Some of you guys are smoking some good shit, that or you have no clue how books work. Btw Seto I think you're a good capper and I have a bookmark on your thread and would have probably played golden state if I had looked at it today but I strongly disagree with your ideology here.

Seto · 01-02-14, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

Why should golden state be +8 in Miami??? Who is gonna lay 8 against a top tier team anywhere? Some of you guys are smoking some good shit, that or you have no clue how books work. Btw Seto I think you're a good capper and I have a bookmark on your thread and would have probably played golden state if I had looked at it today but I strongly disagree with your ideology here.

Tell us again how the Knicks had value to win the ship at +2800

Jikos · 01-02-14, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Tell us again how the Knicks had value to win the ship at +2800

Ok. They have a lot of talent which equates to a lot of potential and if they right the ship and play good, disciplined basketball (which they did tonight) they can take the 3 seed in the East.

Seto · 01-02-14, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

Ok. They have a lot of talent which equates to a lot of potential and if they right the ship and play good, disciplined basketball (which they did tonight) they can take the 3 seed in the East.

Gotta be kidding me. You still think they have a shot at the whole thing? Well I guess you're a fan it's good to have faith.

DOM-Ganador · 01-03-14, 12:01 AM

Man seto, you have a lot of patience. Had a lot of units working today/weekend, so just took GS for 1u + , no ML. Thx.

Menses · 01-03-14, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by Jikos

What are you talking about the line was right, Miami is not good at guarding the perimeter, golden state had won 6 in a row and Wades status was unknown, and Miami has been dropping home games left and right to worse teams. Books job is to balance the money and they did just that with all the Miami hopefuls out there and everybody else with a clue both sides were equally attractive at +4.5/-4.5. What is a trap line?

Some call it the trap....too be good to be true..etc etc......either way....it is a line that is set to garner 60 plus percent action on the Miami side...nobody felt like a sucker before they made that bet....surely you agree?

Jikos · 01-03-14, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by Menses

Some call it the trap....too be good to be true..etc etc......either way....it is a line that is set to garner 60 plus percent action on the Miami side...nobody felt like a sucker before they made that bet....surely you agree?

its a line set to get 50/50 on both sides. i understand what you're saying but its not a trap at all. if you're implying that the books took a position on the game if they knew gs would cover/win they could have set the game at pk and taken everybody's money... a books only goal is to balance the money as much as possible and take a high volume of bets. they make a shitload of money by doing this and it would reduce their edge to ever willingly take a side on any game because they basically have every spread every day for +110. the reason the line was set at +4 to open was because golden state had a significant edge in this game. they match up very well against miami and miami has trouble defending the perimeter which is why it looked like they were getting lucky all night when in fact that's their biggest offensive strength and miami's biggest defensive hole. this game is very easily a +3/-3 and golden state is very easily -3 at home against the heat. the reason they opened it at heat -4 was because they anticipate that a lot of people who are going to bet on this game probably don't know much more than that lebron james has 2 championship rings and a receding hairline. by setting it a little higher they hope to sell the number that would equally attract action on both sides because one of the only things they don't want is to get all the money on miami. they are a very talented team and they could have won tonight but it was definitely not in their favor and it won't be in the future when they play golden state again. what you noticed wasn't a trap but an edge on golden state. you simply perceived it differently.

Menses · 01-03-14, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

its a line set to get 50/50 on both sides. i understand what you're saying but its not a trap at all. if you're implying that the books took a position on the game if they knew gs would cover/win they could have set the game at pk and taken everybody's money... a books only goal is to balance the money as much as possible and take a high volume of bets. they make a shitload of money by doing this and it would reduce their edge to ever willingly take a side on any game because they basically have every spread every day for +110. the reason the line was set at +4 to open was because golden state had a significant edge in this game. they match up very well against miami and miami has trouble defending the perimeter which is why it looked like they were getting lucky all night when in fact that's their biggest offensive strength and miami's biggest defensive hole. this game is very easily a +3/-3 and golden state is very easily -3 at home against the heat. the reason they opened it at heat -4 was because they anticipate that a lot of people who are going to bet on this game probably don't know much more than that lebron james has 2 championship rings and a receding hairline. by setting it a little higher they hope to sell the number that would equally attract action on both sides because one of the only things they don't want is to get all the money on miami. they are a very talented team and they could have won tonight but it was definitely not in their favor and it won't be in the future when they play golden state again. what you noticed wasn't a trap but an edge on golden state. you simply perceived it differently.

I do not disagree with anything you have written....lol....We are aware of such things because we follow the game...but the public is not...this is why books set these lines according to public perception. And it is the reason why I try and bet with the book.......They can live with the sharps taking a piece...but their bread is buttered by public money...and thus the line...which to any sharp would have appeared too low....too easy....Not many had the Warriors last night..but would have if the line were - 7.5 as oppose to - 4...I don't like to use words like trap...but perhaps we could say...entrapment? hahahaha....