Leans for Friday 2/27/09 featuring schaapattack Week

[cocknocker]

Well I was looking for a perfect trend for today's action and i found one that is pretty good. The Bobcats have never won in Oakland, and I don't expect for it to start now. The Bobbies are on their 4th road game of their west coast trip, and after handing the Kings a defeat on Wednesday, they head to the Oracle to face the Warriors who beat them 110-103 earlier this year in North Carolina. When a team just has your number there's nothing that can be done about it. And the Warriors have their number in games played in Oakland, 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ats, with average margins of victory of 19 points. Not helping the cause any the Warriors are coming off of a 13 point loss to the Clippers, in a game that they underperformed. I expect that the Warriors will be energized by their home crowd enough to overcome the absence of Montae Ellis in this game. The Warriors are alternating wins and losses in their last 4 games, and with a loss in their last one, it's time for them to get the job done in this matchup.

Golden State-7 (DROPPED PLAY)

Update

*****NO PLAY ON GOLDEN STATE*****

I don't like the number for this game, and it reeks of minute mixing

The Boston Hex is alive and well, and the Clippers have done the unthinkable catching Boston snoozing in their last game of their west coast road trip. No such luck in this game as the Clippers are EXPECTED to win this one and will most certainly garner the majority of bettors attention today. But the Kings have gone as low as they can possibly go, desite their 5-3 ats recent form. it's time for them to pick up a win and who better to get it against than the Clips a team that is underacheiving to say the least. The Clips have won three in a row only once this season. With a win over Boston in their last game they are in a bad position to get the cover in this matchup. I'll take the Kings as a live home dog.

Sacramento-2 (Official Play)* But waiting on the line to drop some. I will check this line later on today and see if i can get the Kings at -1.5 or -1. I want to play this game under the key number (2)

The Spurs have gotten both of their excuse me wins out of the way winning without Tim Duncan. The Cavs got blown out yesterday by the Rockets and now are on their second leg of their Texas trip. No team in the NBA avenges their losses like the Cavs who have only lost two in a row ONCE this year, and are 9-1 ats in games following a loss this year, which is stallar. I will ride with them in this game and take them for the 1st quarter as well as they are the number one covering team in the 1st quarter in the NBA.

Cleveland+2.5 (DROPPED PLAY)

*****NO PLAY ON THE CAVS*****

I don't like them laying chalk in San Antonio, where they have never been a favorite.

I am replacing the Cavs and Warriors plays with

Knicks-1.5 (Official Play)*
Knicks/Sixers over 105.5 2nd half (Added Play)


schaapattack's reserved soil

[BrandonLaz]

CK where do you get your information about QT and covering trends with them? I use thespread.com for most of my information and then vegasinsider for my information about betting trends. Is there a better site to get all that information preferably free I am not a fan of paying for services.

[Dexter]

2/27 - Fri

the magic will be looking to avenge not only a loss at detroit earlier this year, but also the playoff series lost from last year. you dont have to give me many reasons to fade the pistons. iverson may not go b/c of a bad back - i'd actually prefer to see iverson in there. projected line of -9.

-magic (big)
_____________
the hawks will be playing their first home game off of a 6 game west coast trip. miami is 3-1 ats the last 4 games in atlanta winning 2 of the games su, and losing the other 2 games by 3 points each. always nice to back a team with an all world player. projected line of +3.

heat (big)
_______________
*cancelled over suns with nash out
___________
the cavs are 10-1 ats off a loss this year. enough said.

-cavs
_______________

[whatisit]

Dex Sheed is playing tomm, NBA rescinded 2 of his technicals.

[NYCKEV]

CK-fall back from that GS game.

Marco Belinelli and Anthony Morrow should get more playing time for the Warriors throughout the remainder of the season.
Jamal Crawford has already been scheduled for a night off on Friday, and both guards should help pick up the slack in his absence. In addition, Don Nelson has said he plans on cutting Stephen Jackson's minutes as well, which could also be replaced by Belinelli and Morrow.

Ronny Turiaf missed Wednesday's practice because of a sprained right ankle.
He did some shooting and it doesn't sound like his injury is too serious. Our guess is he plays Friday.

Forward Corey Maggette had an MRI on his sprained right hand and missed Wednesday's practice.
He's listed as day-to-day, leaving him questionable for Friday's game against Charlotte.

Monta Ellis' ankle was feeling better as he practiced jump shots Wednesday. He could be cleared to practice and possibly even play Friday against the Bobcats.
He was initially projected to miss two weeks on Sunday, so the return would come sooner than the Warriors initially expected. Whether he can return to last season's form is another matter.

Warriors coach Don Nelson said Wednesday that he will begin sitting some veterans occasionally in order to get more playing time for his younger players.
Jamal Crawford won't start in Friday's home game against the Bobcats, and may not play at all. "I'll do that periodically because I have a logjam at (shooting guard) and it's probably better not to try to play everybody," Nelson said. "Just give a guy a game off every once in a while." As if Nellie wasn't tough enough to get a read on already, owners of Crawford, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins will now be faced with the unknown from game to game.

Tom I like Lakers -2.5 ova Den. We all saw what Atl almost did to Den I could see the Lakers double digits win already!

[Dexter]

thx whatisit.

*i actually may not play the raptors being that suns starters are not even playing the 4th qtr tonight. plus nash may be back and obv fully rested. the cavs su loss has bumped them up to a definite play for me.

now hope this laker bench doesnt let phx slip in the back door!

[whatisit]

Dex, you stated you're playing JM system? Tor is an A bet tomm.

[Dexter]

yes, i always play the system (buy 2 pts) on a separate acct from my own plays....

[cocknocker]

NYCKEV

The Warriors youngsters are really good too. I will see what the line has in store for us when it is realeased in the morning.

[pho3nix32]

line: phi@nyk 213
pick: 213 under

Trends:

- The under for Philly is 10-2 after scoring 105 or more in the previous game this season.
- The under for Philly is 14-7 against good offensive teams this season.
- The under for both teams combined is 15-9 on Friday nights.
- Head to head, the under is 7-4 in the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 on games played in NY in the last 3 seasons.

Key for the under: Larry Hughes

Check out tomorrow's game and y'all know what im talking about.

[whatisit]

Key for the under: Larry Hughes

[texhooper]

belinelli is a baller and a half...and he looks like a young sly pre-rocky 3 in the face. golden state minus the points for me.

really like the picks this time around ck; we match up this time! san antonio is in the primest of prime positions for a letdown.

i was also thinking about taking indy and miami (probably not indy, but they are still technically on the list) but i was wondering, do you think the first game back from a 3-game or more road trip fade on the home team should be null and void on a friday night?

rebuilding is fun.

[pho3nix32]

sounds funny bro, but im dead serious with this analysis.

[cnleaf]

sounds funny bro, but im dead serious with this analysis.

Agree. Larry Hughes is always a negative component in any team. inconsistent
player.

[camel]

line: phi@nyk 213
pick: 213 under

Key for the under: Larry Hughes

Check out tomorrow's game and y'all know what im talking about.

Mate, i hate playing under/overs but i'm tailing your ass on this one.

[cnleaf]

eyeing CLE OVER
Cleveland

• Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.

San Antonio

• Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Over is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 home games.

[csimmalavong]

wow that kings game is weird, dont know what to think of it...

like the 1st pick

[BrandonLaz]

pho3nix do you only play 1 game everyday or just one stronger than all your others? Just wondering why you only post one play everyday. Anyway nice win yesterday I don't feel as strong about this one as I did yesterdays I will tail you on it, but not for as much.

[The_Kid]

Pho3nix, I can't let myself to bet an UNDER when the Knicks are involved. Philly wants to play fast and so do the Knicks. I don't see how this goes UNDER but best of luck to you tomorrow on this play.

[pho3nix32]

pho3nix do you only play 1 game everyday or just one stronger than all your others? Just wondering why you only post one play everyday. Anyway nice win yesterday I don't feel as strong about this one as I did yesterdays I will tail you on it, but not for as much.

i usually wager on 3 games per day:

1st - my writeup
2nd and 3rd - i select plays from the exceptional cappers in the thread

i dont want to bet on too many games. my target everyday is get at least 2-1. on days when games are 3 and below, i only play one game.

im quite grateful to CK and the guys because i was able to win back in 2 months what i lost in the last 3 years. these guys are the best!

[The_Kid]

The Bulls and Wizards have played UNDER the total in 4 of the last 5 meetings and the UNDER is also 3-0 in the last 3 meetings in the nation's capital. With a total set at 207 tomorrow, I feel that's a little bit too high for both these teams. I can easily see another game like Philly the other night where a score of 106-98 would be fine with me.

New Orleans and Milwaukee have played OVER the total in the last 5 meetings and the total is 4-0 the last 4 meetings when these two teams have met in New Orleans. With the Hornets finally getting everyone back healthy and the trio of Sessions, Villanueva, and Jefferson leading the Bucks, I can see a high-scoring affair tomorrow night.

[pho3nix32]

Pho3nix, I can't let myself to bet an UNDER when the Knicks are involved. Philly wants to play fast and so do the Knicks. I don't see how this goes UNDER but best of luck to you tomorrow on this play.

my call tomorrow is a bit unorthodox. let's just see what happens.

[cocknocker]

How could Dentmon miss that free throw? WOW, he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory...

[texhooper]

ck, this is the thread for friday!!

[pho3nix32]

LOL, closed the wrong bar

[cocknocker]

Dentmon is a fruit in my book....

[woodyman]

agreed, so close yet so far...

[barackobama]

Mr. CK, phoenix, schaapattack, what are your insights on the other games like CHI@WAS+5.5 Line: 207, PHI+2.5@NYK Line: 213, MIL+9@NOH Line: 200.5, OKC+10.5@DAL Line: 214, LAL@DEN+2.5 Line: 219

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Alrighty boys and lovely females.




Here's some stats.
Boston vs Indy - First Quarter
Boston win 70% of their 1Q's. Home offense: 26.75 & Home defence: 22.5

On the other hand, Indy win only 50% of their 1Q's. Road offense: 25.84 & Road defense: 27.19

Boston have a clear 2.8 point advantage, if the first quarter line is around 3 or less, I will pound it! But I think the line for the game will be around -12 so we'll get -4ish for the first.

Spurs vs Cavs - First Quarter
As for the Cavs/Spurs..


Spurs win 60% of their 1Q's. Home offense: 25.22 & Home defence: 22.00

On the other hand, Cavs win only 73% of their 1Q's. Road offense: 26.31 & Road defense: 22.69

Cavs have a 0.2 point advantage. So, if the Cavs have plus points I'll pound them first quarter.


Defintely on these two teams after their recent losses.

[JGILL50]

I sometimes get criticized for over analyzing what how Vegas views the public perception of a team. With that being said ala the magic bulls and rockets cavs im really thinking Vegas is begging for Laker money(and they will get it) with a line of -2.5. Back end of a back to back traveling to the thin air of Denver coupled with a VERY fishy line i will take the NUGGETTS ML.

[pho3nix32]

anybody liking the bulls tonight? CK? Dex?

[Karayilan9]

JGILL you should blacklist Denver and throw them in NO BET closet

Cleveland are the best 1st QTR team in the NBA saying that Spurs arn't too bad themseves, they have won 60% of theirs. Last 5 away games Cleveland has W 2 L 2 Drawn 1, so their recent record isn't reflective of their overall season performance. Here is a crazy stat, Spurs are 5-0 @ home over their last 5 home games.

However, Cleveland are going to fired up after their last loss and are expected to come out storming which could give them the edge.

[Dexter]

4th game in 5 night plays - sat, 2/28

since i began tracking these on my calendar, these plays are 5-1 since 1/19. i know earlier in the year i had a few winners as well using this angle, but only started noting them on the 19th of jan. so simply put, fade the team that is playing their 4th game in 5 nights. i'm just going 2x my norm on all these plays.

clippers (big) vs bobcats
rockets (big) vs bulls
sixers (big) vs magic
___________________
the jazz are red hot and healthy - cathing a kings team on a btb in salt lake where they are 3-1 ats the last 4 vs sac. the 3 wins have come by an avg margin of 21ppg. projected line of -14.

jazz (big)
___________________

[JGILL50]

JGILL you should blacklist Denver and throw them in NO BET closet

Cleveland are the best 1st QTR team in the NBA saying that Spurs arn't too bad themseves, they have won 60% of theirs. Last 5 away games Cleveland has W 2 L 2 Drawn 1, so their recent record isn't reflective of their overall season performance. Here is a crazy stat, Spurs are 5-0 @ home over their last 5 home games.

However, Cleveland are going to fired up after their last loss and are expected to come out storming which could give them the edge.

But they have to cover sometime right?????
Im kidding

[JGILL50]

And it looks like the are back in effect
first rule of is you dont talk about
second rule of is you dont talk about