Dallas -9.5, talk me outta this

[Fader]

Hey all, I'm pretty conservative. I don't like wagering more than one or two units per play. I almost never do two units. I also don't usually wager big spreads. But I'm seriously thinking of going huge and putting down 3% of my entire bankroll on this game. I just can't see how Memphis keeps this one close.

1) Memphis playing a back to back.

2) Memphis is 5-4 on the road. Dallas is well rested, haven't played since Saturday. I expect Dallas to warm up slowly and then take control in the 2nd half. Dallas is 10-2 at home.

3) Dirk might still be a tad sick from last weekend but he's almost 100%, he practiced and is ready to play.

4) Division game. Last game they played was in Dallas, Dallas won 111-99. In this game Memphis had Gasol (23 pts), Conley (24 pts), Prince (3 pts), Allen (0 pts), and Miller (4 pts). Gasol is definitely out. Miller injured his angle yesterday, I doubt he plays today. Conley is doubtful. Prince is questionable. Do I think Randolph can have a huge day today? Yes, but not enough to overcome all their injuries.

5) Memphis 7-16-1 ats, Dallas 13-11-0. Memphis 1-4 ats in their last five meetings.

Devil's advocate. Thoughts against taking the spread?

[totallypsycho]

square play is right play in this case, this current grizz team isn't one to try and outsmart yourself on

mavs also got brandan wright back which is huge

[Fader]

Ya, good points. I like the way Wright played as well.

The only thing that worries me is Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. They covered last game but that was against Milwaukee. The other home games were against:

Charlotte
Minnesota
GS
Denver
Utah

I would say all those teams are good except for Utah.

[NardVa]

The Grizz are a funny team. When you expect them to win they lose. Now that you expect them to lose they will win big.