Supinoku`s best plays of the day

Supinoku · 12-07-13, 06:50 PM

Play for the upcoming night ...

Bucks vs Nets

A game that will draw 0 interest and about the same number of spectators. That of course does not mean we should not bet on it. Looking at the standings you realize that it will be the meeting between the 2 worst teams in the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is 4-15 and Brooklyn who once was considered to be one of the threats for the Heat have a record of 5-14.

Milwaukee just won a game though. Being a 6 point underdog they managed to beat the Wizards in an away game. At the same time Brooklyn Nets just keeps losing and losing in a blowout fashion. The Nets have lost 8 of their last 10 games, 4 of their last 5 games and 3 of them by not even showing up: 95-114 (@HOU), 87-111 (vs DEN) and 83-113 (vs NYK). They did get some serious booing in last 2 home games so in that sense playing away might not be a bad thing.

Brooklyn needs Deron Williams back as soon as possible. It will still take probably couple of games. Until then Brooklyn will be the team without the heartbeat. They will also miss Paul Pierce, Andrei Kirilenko and Jason Terry tonight. Both of those teams are bad, but the Bucks just won a game and will play in front of their home crowd. They should cover +3 points. 4/10 units.

JustSomeCash · 12-07-13, 07:03 PM

Like your pick,like your thread,good luck pal!

Supinoku · 12-10-13, 06:50 AM

Indiana vs Miami
11-dec-2013

This is the first meeting between two teams since the Eastern Conference finals few months ago when the Heat managed to overcome the Pacers in 7 games and later win the NBA title. In general the Eastern Conference looks really weak, but those two teams. One could actually argue that Indiana and Miami are currently 2 strongest teams in the league.

That all said it is obvious that this game tonight means more than just an average game in their schedule. Indiana has the better record, but they want to validate it by beating the Heat. Miami on the other hand wants to prove that its them who still own the league and no matter the record they can beat the Pacers in a basketball game.

Last year the Eastern Conference finals ended with games being a dogfights and low-scoring affairs. Last 3 games had a scoring totals between 175 to 180 points. Expect it to look something similar tonight while teams will do their best to limit opponents at the defensive end and then try to score playing half-court offense. Under 190 points is our bet.

GL

dirtycash66 · 12-10-13, 08:00 AM

looks good

Supinoku · 12-11-13, 02:21 PM

Kings vs Jazz
12/12/2013

It has been awful for the Jazz. Their record is 4-19, they have won 1 away game and lost 10, they have lost 4 games in a row and have had no chances in any of those games. They actually played the Kings 5 days ago and lost by 10 points although they had their home court advantage in that game. Playing the Kings away should not make it any easier.

The Kings does not have a much better record (6-13), but they have played a better basketball. Some of their losses have been in close fights and although realistically their hopes for the play-offs are dead already they still play to win the games. Trading for Rudy Gay shows that they still want to win now and give it a fight. Changes in the roster usually help short term, so expect the Kings to have a solid performance in front of their home crowd tonight.

The Jazz will not have Marvin Williams and Derrick Favours is listed as a game-time decision. With our without Favours the Jazz will struggle against the Kings and Sacramento should win this game by a comfortable margin. -7.0 points with 5/10 stakes.

GL

Supinoku · 12-13-13, 07:53 AM

Indiana vs Charlotte
14/12/13

This should be nothing other than a full scale blowout here.

Indiana (19-3) managed to beat the defending champions couple of nights ago. Usually after emotional win teams tend to mail in and not give their best effort in next game, but expect it to be a different with this Pacers team. They are too smart of a team, too well coach and they play at home. They have been talking about importance of getting the highest seed in the East to secure home court advantage against the Heat for the possible Conference Finals match up and they know joking around with weaker teams could prove to be costly at the end of the regular season.

Charlotte actually is 5th seed in the East at the moment with a record of 10-12. But of course the difference between top 2 teams in the East and rest of pack is just huge at the moment. the Bobcats have a a very favorable schedule with their last wins coming against BOS, CLE, BKN, MIL, MIL, PHI, GSW. So their record does not tell the full story about their quality. Those two teams met n Charlotte couple of weeks ago and Indiana safely won the game 99-74. Expect them to cover tonight as well. -12.0 points with 5/10 units.

gl

Supinoku · 12-14-13, 01:10 PM

Wizards vs Clippers
15/12/2013

The Clippers keep having that on/off switch which makes their performances vary from great to awful and back to great on a nightly basis. The key here is that they are at the back end of their long road trip. 7th away game in a row after two emotional games for the coach (in BOS and vs KG/Paul Pierce) should take its toll. It`s likely we will see some tired legs and missed shots. The Clippers have scored 97, 101, 82, 94, 96 and 93 during that road trip, which makes it an average of 93,8 points per game.

Handicap line actually suggests that the Clippers should be 4 points favorites here. If that`s true their efforts starts from the defensive end. The Wizards have their best player John Wall matched up against CP3, who will most likely take it personally to keep him in check. The wizards are averaging 93 points over their last 6 games. So expect this game to be a low-scoring slug fest that will end somewhere around 185-190 points as a total. Under 193.5 points seems like a good option here with 4/10 units.

gl

CaVengo · 12-14-13, 01:41 PM

It's too logical. Clippers have had a day off, and will therefore come strong out tonight, to ensure that they finish the roadtrip in style. Washington's starters didn't play that many minutes, despite they played an OT last night.. So they will run with Clippers here..

Supinoku · 12-15-13, 09:15 AM

Detroit/Portland
16.12.13

Portland is as hot as it gets at the moment. They have a winning record of 20 wins and 4 losses, they have won 3 games in a row and 8 from last 10 games and they just scored 139 points in previous game.

The Pistons have a solid record going 11-13 at the moment. Solid when you play in the East that is. In the Western Conference that kind of a record would leave them way out of the play-off spot. Portland of course is leading in the West so you get the idea about the gulf separating those two teams in reality. Detroit has had some struggles lately. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games including couple of blowout losses against Miami and Minnesota.

It is a second meeting between those 2 teams this season. The Trailblazers managed to beat the Pistons 109-103 when they met in Portland. The trailblazers seem to run a hot streak. Although they play 2nd night in a row expect them to boss the game and cover the -4.0 points. 5/10 units.

gl

Supinoku · 12-17-13, 03:10 PM

Denver vs Oklahoma

Both teams like to play up tempo games and sometimes tend to go to the "score as much as you want we will score more" mode. The Thunder have some low post defenders, but the Nuggets are not looking to score inside, but prefer to take outside shots.

OKC has 6 game winning streak and they have found it easy to score lately. Over the last 7 games Thunder has gone over 100 points in all of them scoring: 104, 109, 118, 101, 116, 122 and 101 points. That makes it an average of 110 points per game. As said before its not like the Nuggets will come out to stop that scoring, but their style of play will rather help the Thunder to keep it going.

When those 2 teams met first time this season the game ended with a score 115-113. That said, teams didn`t even shoot with a spectacular field percentage. Oklahoma City score 40,9% from the field and Denver shot 48,2%. That should give you an idea what kind of a game those two teams will play tonight. Expect it to go over 207.5 points. 5/10 units.

GL

Supinoku · 12-18-13, 02:24 PM

Miami/Indiana

It is obvious that this game tonight means more than just an average game. Indiana wants to get their revenge for last season play-off loss and prove that they can beat the Heat in Miami also. Since LBJ could be out with an ankle sprain this is a good spot for them to succeed in it. Miami on the other hand wants to prove that last weeks loss was more of an accident than anything else.

Last year the Eastern Conference finals ended with games being a dogfights and low-scoring affairs. Last 3 games had a scoring totals between 175 to 180 points. Last week`s the game ended with a score 84-90. So 16 points below tonights line. Lebron could be sitting out this game and that directly affects Miami`s offensive game. Under 190 points is the bet with 5/10 stake.

gl

Supinoku · 12-23-13, 06:31 AM

Nets/Pacers
24/12/13

With Brook Lopez done for the season with a broken foot injury, bad season just got worse for the Nets. It actually hurts a lot since it took away realistic chances of making some noise in the Eastern Conference play-offs if somehow the Nets would have got any kind of momentum at the end of the regular season. As of now they are outside the play-off spot anyway with a horrific 9-17 record.

Most of the struggles can be explained by injuries. They have missed all their key players during first two months of the season. But a lot of blame is on their new coach Jason Kidd who has got exactly nothing out of his players. Being as old as he is he probably would do a better work for the team dressing up as a player at the moment. Leaving out the cup-spilling incident and a fine for that there`s nothing there to remember.

That brings us to two key points why the Pacers will own the Nets tonight. First of all with Lopez out Indiana`s low-post strength will be just too much fo the Nets. Hibbert and West will have their way all 48 minutes. Secondly, Indiana`s coaching stuff and overall smartness is just different level compared to the Nets. Indiana`s is playing second night in a row, but they had an easy game against the Celtics so they should be fresh enough to secure another win. -6.0 points with 5/10 stakes.

GL

RJKing · 12-23-13, 10:36 AM

nice write-up, how you doing so far this season?

Supinoku · 01-20-14, 05:40 AM

Houston vs Portland 21/01/14
Portland is slowly coming back to that impressive form they had early in the season. The Trailblazers have won their last 5 games with last 2 of them being rather impressive away wins against the Spurs and the Mavericks. With a record of 31-9 Portland is leading the Western Conference standings and with 15 wins and 5 losses it is strange to see them being rated as underdogs against the Houston Rockets.

Houston has 27 wins and 15 losses. They are 6-4 over last 10 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games. But this is a bad 4-1, cause they have looked shaky even in some of their losses. For example they managed to beat the Bucks 114-104 2 days ago, but kept struggling with their shooting going 7-27 from long range. That awful shooting actually started a game before when they managed to score only 19 points during the 2nd half. The 54-point disparity between points scored in 2st and 2nd half was the largest in two different halves of the same game in NBA history. The Rockets just couldn`t make a shot and that carried over to their next game against the Bucks.

Houston has a home game, but Portland in general has been a better team. They have a better record better momentum and should be favored here. Take Portland to win with 5/10 stakes.

GL

Supinoku · 01-21-14, 02:23 AM

Miami vs Boston 22/01

Couple of seasons ago this would have been a derby game between two Eastern Conference title contenders. This season it is a game between a team who tries to three-peat and a team who would like to get a draft pick as high as possible.

Miami lost a game last night against the Hawks. This could be the key factor why they will come out and cover the line tonight. The Heat has been an excellent back-to-back team this year, winning most of these games. With a 29-12 record Miami is already 4 wins behind the Pacers and know they have to start putting winning streaks together if they want to secure homecourt through out the Eastern Conference playoffs. Boston at the same time is bottoming out and wouldnt mind putting up losing streaks. They have done excellent job in that losing 9 of their last 10 games.

The stories that circle around the Heat are mainly talking about team trying to find a regular season motivation. Coming from a loss and playing against their old time rivals while still remembering a tough buzzer beater loss they had against the Celtics this season, expect the Heat to come out and try to murder Boston. -9.5 points handicap is high, but so is the Heat desire to make it a blowout. 5/10 stakes.

gl

Supinoku · 01-22-14, 09:23 AM

Milwaukee vs Detroit

Neither of those two teams has a play-off spot at the moment, but there`s still a huge difference between them. Detroit has a record of 17 wins and 24 losses while the Bucks have league "leading" 7 wins and 33 losses. So in fact difference in quality can be measured by 10 wins at the moment. It should be 11 wins between them after tonight.

Milwaukee has taken good care of theor main goal this season - tanking for draft balls. They currently have a 9 game losing streak. Players are probably not that happy about that, but bottoming out this season is probably the smartest thing to do. During this 9 game losing streak Milwaukee has covered tonights +4.5 line offered for them in grand total of 0 times. Most of their losses have been in double digits and blowouts.

Maybe the biggest difference between these teams is the motivation. While Detroit is fighting for the play-off spot. Milwaukee cant wait for this season to end. Detroit is currently 1 game behind the 8th seed in the East and they know they just cant lose games to teams like the Bucks. They have taken good care of the Bucks in prevoius 2 meetings this season so expect similar thing to happen tonight. -4.5 with 5/10 stakes.

gl

Supinoku · 01-23-14, 03:13 AM

Portland vs Denver

Denver and Portland both can score a lot of points, but o/u line 221.5 points still seems a bit excessive. At some point defense must kick in. To reach over 221 points it takes free-flowing, not much defending game for full 48 minutes and we dont see that happening.

Portland will have first home game after a tough 4-game roadtrip against SAS, DAL, HOU and OKC. They split these four games going 2-2. As it often is in NBA, first game back at home tends to be a tough one. So expect Portland to struggle a bit with their shooting. To have a chance against the Nuggets they need to slow down the tempo and make it a half-court offence affair.

First meeting between these teams finished with Portland winning the game 113-98 totalling 211 points. This game will be high scoring, but there`s no real reason why it should go much more higher that. Value is on under here. 3/10 stakes.

gl

ChicagoCover · 01-23-14, 03:18 AM

Supinoku · 01-24-14, 07:26 AM

Boston vs Oklahoma City
25/01

Boston beat the Pistons couple of days ago to improve their record to 15-29. Nevertheless they have won only 2 games in January while losing 11 games. As stated before the Celtics dont mind losing. They know that making to the play-offs is a long shot and even if they do make it to the playoffs having 7th or 8th seed basically still means 1st round exit against the Heat or the Pacers. Rajon Rondo is back from an injury, but the Celtics will be using him cautiosly and limit his minutes.

Thunder on the other hand is playing great basketball even without Russell Westbrook. They have won 5 games in a row including wins against the Rockets, Trailblazers and the Spurs. Kevin Durant is shooting the lights out and is basically locked in to win a scoring title plus have a serious run to finally contest Lebron James for the MVP honours.

I just think that quality will prevail here. Boston has no options to stop Kevin Durant from scoring at will. Boston has home court advantage, but Thunder has been hot lately. They should be much better here and cover -7.0 points. 4/10 stakes.

gl

Supinoku · 01-25-14, 09:35 AM

Portland vs Minesota
26/01

Minnesota was victorious last night as they managed to beat the Warriors by a point. Great win for the Timberwolves, but this game could cost them tonight when they have to play a back-to-back game against the Trailblazers.

Portland had a rest day last night after beating the Nuggets in Moda Center 2 days ago. So they haven`t been travelling and should be well prepared to play the Timberwolves tonight. Even on normal circumstances they should be a clearly better team here as they have 11 wins more than the T`Wolves this season. Portland has a 17-4 home record as of now, so they are tough team to beat at their homecourt.

Minnesota has won 3 games in a row, but 2 of them against one of the weakest teams in the league - Utah Jazz. They played "run and gun" type of game last night in Oakland and will feel that in their legs tonight. Bookies correctly assume it will be a high scoring game (o/u line is 220.5 points), but Portland is not the Warriors and they will defend much better against tired Wolves. Expect the difference between the teams to balloon and Portland to cover -7.5 points. 4/10 stakes.

gl

steelerpunkie · 01-25-14, 11:41 AM

great write up, real incite fol info...

steelerpunkie · 01-26-14, 12:28 AM

Supinoku, Thank You. gave me that over the top info i needed....
your pick was again Great Info ..........Money

Supinoku · 01-26-14, 10:56 AM

Knicks vs Lakers

New York got exactly what they needed 2 days ago when they beat the Bobcats in a blowout fashion 125-96. They needed that win, but more importantly they needed something to happen that would spark the team. Melo scoring 62 (!!!) points could be exactly that spark to lift the team. 62 points marked the MSG record and a team record. Coming from such a performance and facing a team with shorthanded roster expect New York to win tonight.

Lakers problems are well documented. Kobe and Nash are out with injuries, Gasol is constantly involved in trade rumours and play-offs seem to be in a far distance. Losing has become a habit for the Lakers as they have lost 9 of their last 11 games.

Momentum can swing in one game. New York fans hope they have it going now and the Lakers could be the best opponent for the Knicks players to prove it. I see home team covering -5.5 points here. 4/10 stakes.

gl

steelerpunkie · 01-26-14, 01:10 PM

win or lose keep posting your picks Supinoku, i like your evaluation and seeing match ups from
a different perspective angle......

so many angles of handicapping a game, i would say the toughs angle is the teams personal vibe,
some teams subconsciously decide for some ever reason not to perform at there high level of
performance on any given day, and it only takes 1 player or couple points down to trigger this
scenario, we see it all the time... like i said, i like your perspective(angle) and couple other handicappers
here... keep posting, don't be discourage ...

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 01-26-14, 01:24 PM

I like NYK too. GL

Aye J Mac · 01-26-14, 05:55 PM

I like this kid

steelerpunkie · 01-26-14, 06:02 PM

nice work,,,

Supinoku · 01-27-14, 03:09 AM

Chicago vs Minnesota
28/01

Minnesota has had couple of high scoring games recently so the over/under market has adjusted and market is expecting hot shooting and overish games to continue. The difference is Chicago Bulls is not Golden State Warriors or Portland Trailblazers.

After losing Rose once again to an injury and letting Luol Deng to go, Chicago knows they cant go and offensively run over opponents. They have adjusted to win the games at the defensive ends. It has been especially effective in home games and against opponents who like to have up tempo games. Good examples from the recent past are games against Raptors (79-85) Suns (92-87) and 76ers (103-78). This game tonight should look something similar with Chicago taking its time offensively and making T`Wolves to run their half-court offense.

Minnesota will play 4th away game in a row with previous 3 games being run and gun type of affairs. Playing 3rd game in 4 nights and against a team that will try to offensively gag them this should take its toll. Not sure who will cover here, but the tempo should be dictated by the Bulls and the game should stay under 195 points. 4/10 stakes.

gl

Aye J Mac · 01-27-14, 10:08 PM

I like u kid

vancityswag · 01-27-14, 11:04 PM

Nice work

steelerpunkie · 01-27-14, 11:07 PM

Thanks again for sharing your picks...

Aye J Mac · 01-28-14, 03:34 AM

I can't wait for your pick tommorrow bro

Supinoku · 01-28-14, 07:04 AM

Houston vs San Antonio
29/01

Houston Rockets will have a home court advantage. They have to take a full advantage of that advantage, because thats the only advantage they have tonight. As always the Spurs look exceptionally dangerous after losing a game. Once again a bounce back from an emotional game (bringing back bad memories) and tough loss against the Heat is what the Spurs should do.

Houston can be dangerous if they get hot, but playing against the team with such a huge amount of experience and a coach with bag full of tricks, this is unlikely to happen tonight. It would come to the point where Pop would use hack-a-dwight if he feels the need to slow the Rockets shooting down. Needless to say that the Spurs will probably be better prepared to play the Rockets than the Rockets are prepared to play the defending Western Conference champs.

Kawhi Leonrad is out with an injury, but Boris Diaw has been playing his best as a Spur. San Antonio has lost 2 games already this season to Houston (both games played in San Antonio). Now will it happen 3rd time in a row? You should seriously doubt in that and rather put your money on away team. San Antonio to win @2.05 with 4/10 stakes is the play here.

gl

Supinoku · 01-28-14, 07:27 AM

Thanks, guys, for your support!

I have been obviously hot lately and I just hope you will stay with me when tougher times come. As I said in my 1st post 8th years in a row I have managed to be in profit with NBA bets ... so I guess staying with me is worth it through thick and thin.