Why is Portland only -5 over Dallas tomorrow at home?

[Seto]

Expected this to be like -7..

Portland is 8-1 at home, 16-3 overall, and just beat Indiana and OKC back-to-back. Mavs while decent (12-8) are a pretty bad 3-6 on the road.

The only explanation I can find is that they're on a back-to-back but it's a home-and-home b2b and they're playing the shitty Jazz...

[Seto]

No one else surprised by this? Not even the guys who have Portland winning the West?

[JAnthony]

Not really a surprise. There is a great chance that Dallas will cool them off tomorrow night. My model came up with a -5.5 spread for Portland, but I'm considering Dallas at this spot, maybe even an ML play.

The experience factor might play quite a role in this one.

[Seto]

Dallas will probably do as they always do at the damn Rose Garden, go up by 20+ pts and then lose in the last minute.



But I do think the line is a bit of a surprise. Maybe it means the books like Dallas to cool them off and they are the play as you suggested.

[nelsonrc24]

Take the over and stay away.

[Seto]

Not a totals guy except in rare spots. Have played 1 all year. GL with the over if you play it.

Considering a play on Mavs first half. Other leans as of now are sixers and heat. Not a fan of the card though, there won't be anything close to a big play for sure.