Abacus System Plays

[broncosfan]

lac +1
gs -4.5
gs/sac over 200.5
cha+10.5
min +8.5
por -3.5

[broncosfan]

best play according to the system is minnesota

[broncosfan]

lac was unable to pull it out even with all the golden opportunities. this one just didn't bounce our way. on to the next plays.

[broncosfan]

3-3 last night. A lot of bad beats last night but on to the next one. I will release tonight's plays shortly.

[broncosfan]

orl/was over 194
orl +7
no +7
hou/uta over 201.5
hou -8
por +1.5

6 system plays tonight.

[broncosfan]

orl/was over 194
orl +7
no +7
hou/uta over 201.5
hou -8
por +1.5

6 system plays tonight.

3-3 on the night again. on to the next one.

[broncosfan]

gs -7.5 (1-9)
pho +3.5 (7-3)
den -4 (9-1)
det +10 (5-5)
orl +4 (6-4)

orl/phi over 207.5 (8-0)
mil/bos under 186 (0-8)
den/bk over 204.5 (6-2)
cha/dal under 195 (2-6)
okc/sac over 203.5 (8-0)
tor/gs over 201 (7-1)

11 system plays.

[broncosfan]

orl +4
orl/phi over 207.5
det +10
mil/bos under 186
den -4
den/bk over 204.5
pho +3.5
cha/dal under 194.5
okc/sac over 203.5
gs -7.5
tor/gs over 201

11 system plays.

This system has gone through a lot of background testing with last years stats and the year before that. It pronounced a 56% win rate and I have continued to tweak and revise this model before the start of this season. Let's see if posting these picks won't curse me.

It is based on nine statistical differences between the match-up of the two playing teams which projects a winner for each statistic. Each category a team wins receives one point, so essentially a team that wins all nine categories (9-0) projects a team to win by at least 9 points. However one statistic I have chosen to grant two points due to the value (imo) of the statistic (off/def efficiency). So the best a team can score is 10-0.

The over/under is calculated based on similar statistics except it has only seven variables, while one stat is granted two points instead of one for a win as well. So 8-0 would be a lean on the over and 0-8 as a strong lean under.

This system does take injuries into consideration. Injuries are definitely manual adjustments for any model I have created.

[broncosfan]

orlando is off to a wonderful start

[broncosfan]

mis-calculated one play. add sac +8.5.

[broncosfan]

gs -7.5 (1-9)
pho +3.5 (7-3)
den -4 (9-1)
det +10 (5-5)
orl +4 (6-4)

orl/phi over 207.5 (8-0)
mil/bos under 186 (0-8)
den/bk over 204.5 (6-2)
cha/dal under 195 (2-6)
okc/sac over 203.5 (8-0)
tor/gs over 201 (7-1)

11 system plays.

gs -7.5 (1-9)
pho +3.5 (7-3)
den -4 (9-1)
det +10 (5-5)
orl +4 (6-4) LOL (If you who watched the last shot of the game, you will understand.)
sac +8.5 (5-5)

orl/phi over 207.5 (8-0)
mil/bos under 186 (0-8) 67 points in the 4th?!?
den/bk over 204.5 (6-2)
cha/dal under 195 (2-6)
okc/sac over 203.5 (8-0)
tor/gs over 201 (7-1)

12 total system plays.

[broncosfan]

gs -7.5 (1-9)
pho +3.5 (7-3)
den -4 (9-1)
det +10 (5-5)
orl +4 (6-4) LOL (If you who watched the last shot of the game, you will understand.)
sac +8.5 (5-5)

orl/phi over 207.5 (8-0)
mil/bos under 186 (0-8) 67 points in the 4th?!?
den/bk over 204.5 (6-2)
cha/dal under 195 (2-6)
okc/sac over 203.5 (8-0)
tor/gs over 201 (7-1)

8-4 tonight.

9-6 (Spread)
5-4 (O/U)
14-10 Overall

[broncosfan]

den -4 (9-1)
lac -3.5 (10-0)
pho +10.5 (5-5)
no -1.5 (3-7)
por -2.5 (2-8)

den/cle over 202 (7-1)
pho/hou over 210 (8-0)
dal/no over 207.5 (8-0)
sa/min over 205 (8-0)
okc/por over 204.5 (7-1)
ind/uta under 187 (0-8)

11 plays tonight.

[broncosfan]

den -4 (9-1)
lac -3.5 (10-0)
pho +10.5 (5-5)
no -1.5 (3-7)
por -2.5 (2-8)

den/cle over 202 (7-1)
pho/hou over 210 (8-0)
dal/no over 207.5 (8-0)
sa/min over 205 (8-0)
okc/por over 204.5 (7-1)
ind/uta under 187 (0-8)

4-6 tonight

11-9 (Spread)
7-7 (O/U)
18-16 Overall

[broncosfan]

ny -1 (7-3)
lac +1.5 (9-1)

2 system plays tonight

[broncosfan]

december 6th

cha -5.5 (2-8)
phi/cha over 194.5 (7-1)
cle/atl over 194 (6-2)
tor/pho over 201 (6-2)
pho -3.5 (2-8)
lal +3.5 (7-3)
lal/sac over 204 (8-0)
uta/por over 199 (8-0)

[broncosfan]

adding mia/chi over 187

[broncosfan]

ny -1 (7-3)
lac +1.5 (9-1)

2 system plays tonight

one more play left. need miami to put some points on the board to secure an over.

[broncosfan]

ny -1 (7-3)
lac +1.5 (9-1)
mia/chi over 187 (4-4)

on to the next one.

13-9 (Spread)
8-7 (O/U)
21-16 Overall

[broncosfan]

december 6th

cha -5.5 (2-8)
orl +5 (5-5)
gs +5.5 (5-5)
pho -3.5 (2-8)
lal +3.5 (7-3)

phi/cha over 194.5 (7-1)
cle/atl over 194 (6-2)
orl/ny over 194.5 (6-2)
tor/pho over 201 (6-2)
lal/sac over 204 (8-0)
uta/por over 199 (8-0)

11 finalized plays.

[broncosfan]

adding

mil/was over 192 (4-4)
okc/no over 204 (8-0)

[broncosfan]

december 6th

cha -5.5 (2-8)
orl +5 (5-5)
gs +5.5 (5-5)
pho -3.5 (2-8)
lal +3.5 (7-3)

phi/cha over 194.5 (7-1)
cle/atl over 194 (6-2)
orl/ny over 194.5 (6-2)
tor/pho over 201 (6-2)
lal/sac over 204 (8-0)
uta/por over 199 (8-0)
mil/was over 192 (4-4)
okc/no over 204 (8-0)

9-3 tonight

16-11 (Spread)
14-8 (O/U)
30-19 Overall

LOVIN' IT

[JAnthony]

Awesome run there! Keep it up!

[broncosfan]

december 7th

den -6.5 (8-2)
lac -6 (9-1)
gs +1 (8-2)
det +5 (7-3)
ind +3.5 (9-1)
mil +3 (4-6)
sac +2 (6-4)
por -5 (1-9)

dal/por over 206.5 (9-0)
gs/mem over 193.5 (6-3)
den/phi over 216 (9-0)

[broncosfan]

december 7th

den -7 (8-2)
lac -6 (9-1)
gs -1 (8-2)
det +3 (7-3)
ind +3.5 (9-1)
mil +2.5 (4-6)
sac +3.5 (6-4)
por -5 (1-9)
min +6.5 (3-7)


dal/por over 208 (9-0)
gs/mem over 193 (6-3)
den/phi over 210 (9-0)
mia/min over 203 (8-1)

finalized plays.

[broncosfan]

december 7th

den -7 (8-2)
lac -6 (9-1)
gs -1 (8-2)
det +3 (7-3)
ind +3.5 (9-1)
mil +2.5 (4-6)
sac +3.5 (6-4)
por -5 (1-9)
min +6.5 (3-7)


dal/por over 208 (9-0)
gs/mem over 193 (6-3)
den/phi over 210 (9-0)
mia/min over 203 (8-1)

6-7 tonight.

on to the next one.

[broncosfan]

december 8th

bos +5.5
det +4
ind +4.5
tor +5.5

mia/det over 196.5
tor/lal over 204

[broncosfan]

adding

(*Secondary plays. These are half unit plays and will be only SU underdogs. I will be keeping record of these separately from the "primary plays.")

ind ml

[broncosfan]

december 8th

bos +5.5
det +4
ind +4.5
tor +5.5

mia/det over 196.5
tor/lal over 204

adding
(*Secondary plays. These are half unit plays and will be only SU underdogs. I will be keeping record of these separately from the "primary plays.")

ind ml

3-3 last night.

0-1 *secondary plays.

[broncosfan]

i didn't have time to post earlier so the lines have moved.

december 9th

lac/phi over 207
gs -5.5
gs/cha under 197
den -1.5
den/was over 199.5
por -7.5
dal/sac over 204.5