Run the Table NBA 2013-14 Picks

[Run the Table]

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES at
INDIANA PACERS

TABLE TALK
This match up will place a top 5 scoring offense against a top 5 scoring defense. The Timberwolves currently average 106.9 ppg offensively, while the Pacers allow a league low 87.6 ppg. One reason the Wolves put up so many points has to do with their league leading field goal attempts (90.5 per game). Minnesota’s average point total could be higher if not for their below average field goal percentage (43.2%). The Pacers’ have been very successful at limiting their opponents’ scoring, as their defense averages a league low 39.7% field goal percentage. Even after the shot, Indiana is quick to take the ball back on the offensive, as they are in the top five for defensive rebounding teams at 28.9 per game.

With the Pacers sitting at 7-0 at home this season, expect the trend to continue with this game. However, don’t expect Minnesota’s scoring machine to slow down for Indiana. This should be a closer game than most might expect, especially if the score stays below the 194 total. I can’t ignore the Wolves here.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS
Minnesota is 2-5 SU on the road this season
Minnesota is 9-6 ATS this season
Indiana is 7-1 SU at home this season
Indiana is 9-4 ATS this season

RUN THE TABLE
Minnesota Timberwolves +7

[Run the Table]

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS at
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

TABLE TALK
The 8-6 Warriors travel cross-country to face the 6-7 Pelicans in New Orleans. Golden State begins a four game road trip with their match up tomorrow, which will take them to Dallas and Oklahoma City before returning to California to face Sacramento. The Warriors are on a three game skid after losing to Memphis, LA Lakers, and Portland. They would like to start another four game winning streak like they had prior to their three losses. After starting the season 3-6, the Pelicans rattled off three straight wins before losing badly to the Spurs last night. Now in one game back at home before traveling east for a three game trip, the Pelicans hope to get back to their winning ways.

Golden State has owned this head-to-head series of late, winning 4/4 match ups last year and covering ATS 3/4 times. However this season may end up differently, as both teams appear relatively even statistically. On an average score basis, Golden State is 101.7/97.3 ppg offensively and defensively while New Orleans is 101.3/98.8 respectively. In seven games at home, the Pelicans have limited their opponents to 94.9 ppg, while averaging a more impressive 104.7 ppg offensively. Both teams rank in the top 5 for three point percentage, averaging more than 40% from behind the arc. The difference is that Golden State shoots the 3-pointer at more than double rate than New Orleans, and they lead the league in average made per game (10.2).

In terms of comparable match ups this season, both teams have already played on the road against the struggling Utah Jazz. Utah’s only win this season came at the expense of New Orleans. Golden State meanwhile, easily won their match up with the Jazz. While New Orleans has been fairly solid at home this season, stats and history lean towards Golden State in this game. If you like free NBA picks, take the Warriors on the money.

RUN THE NUMBERS
Golden State is 6-7-1 ATS overall this season
Golden State is 3-4 SU on the road this season
Golden State is 4-3 ATS on the road this season
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS overall this season
New Orleans is 5-2 SU at home this season
New Orleans is 3-4 ATS at home this season

RUN THE TABLE
Golden State Warriors ML

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SAN ANTONIO SPURS at
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Table Talk
The 13-1 Spurs travel north to face the 9-3 Thunder for a match up of two of the hottest teams in the NBA. San Antonio comes into this game riding an 11-game win streak after their win at home two nights ago against the New Orleans Pelicans. Although not as impressive, Oklahoma City still comes into this game with a strong 4-game win streak. Both teams look to extend their streaks tonight.

If it wasn’t for a November 2nd loss on the road to the Portland Trailblazers, the Spurs may have had a chance to go undefeated for the entire month. Tonight’s game will be a tough test for San Antonio to see if they can continue their streak. Although the Spurs have a better than average offense, 102.1 ppg and 49.2% field goals, their difference maker is on the defensive front where they limit opponents to 90.1 ppg. San Antonio is also in the top 5 for opponent’s field goal percentage and three point percentage.

Oklahoma City is half way through a six game home stand, sitting at 3-0 thus far. This will easily be their toughest game of the stretch. In order to win, the Thunder must step up their defense that allows 98.8 ppg. The upside defensively is their opponent’s shooting percentage, which is limited to 43.1%. On offense Oklahoma City averages 103.5 ppg, and they lead the league in rebounding at 47 per game.

The line for this game currently sits at -2.5 for the Thunder. If Oklahoma City wins, it will be extremely close. In this situation, I typically buy a few points to add some cushion to my pick. So if you like free NBA picks, take the Spurs with the points plus 2 more.

Run the Numbers
San Antonio is 8-6 ATS overall this season
San Antonio is 4-3 ATS on the road this season
San Antonio is 6-1 SU on the road this season
Oklahoma City is 6-6 ATS overall this season
Oklahoma City is 3-3 ATS at home this season
Oklahoma City is 6-0 SU at home this season

Run the Table
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (Buy +2)