Testing a model

[JAnthony]

Just looking at numbers, he obviously contributes negatively towards winning this season but my model has consistently been off on Chicago games this year, so it made me re-consider. I didnt even know about this other dude who has these great underlying numbers until today and wasn't aware the Bulls were missing a key player.

Shows how clueless I am about NBA. I feel like this was a productive little chat for me though.

Nice to be of some help.

[EasyPicks]

Yes, that's the case.

I wouldn't call those "points", but "overall contribution", meaning, that Rose's absence doesn't affect Bulls overall performance and ability to win matches that much, if at all, this season.

not even team chemistry? or team "winner mentality"?...after all the guy was a MVP 2 years ago.

[JAnthony]

not even team chemistry? or team "winner mentality"?...after all the guy was a MVP 2 years ago.

Unfortunately, I can't assign any decent values to psychological aspects. I base my argument only on hard data of the actual performance this season.

[aznbluff]

4-2 for +0.183
Total 28-18 for +0.923

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Atlanta
Washington	-1.61	0.00	195.92	0.00
	Difference	-1.61		195.92
Chicago
Cleveland	8.24	4.00	186.22	180.50
	Difference	4.24		5.72
Brooklyn
Memphis	-9.46	0.00	191.79	0.00
	Difference	-9.46		191.79
Minnesota
Dallas	-1.50	-1.00	206.81	208.00
	Difference	-0.50		-1.19
Houston
San Antonio	-6.97	0.00	200.01	0.00
	Difference	-6.97		200.01
Utah
Phoenix	-18.83	0.00	193.59	0.00
	Difference	-18.83		193.59
Boston
Milwaukee	4.75	1.50	188.24	187.50
	Difference	3.25		0.74

Tomorrow's card

Boston -1.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Chicago -4 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

Chicago/Cleveland Over 180.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Waiting on some lines still. Another side and total in a Chicago game. Obviously Rose's injury is crushing my model, not hitting well at all in Chicago games, but my model always spits them out. I have learned that Rose is a fairly important player.

Looks like I'm adding

Phoenix -8.5 -113 0.113 to win 0.1

San Antonio/Houston Under 205.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

1-4 for -0.331
Total 29-22 for +0.592

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Denver
Toronto	-2.96	0.00	198.27	0.00
	Difference	-2.96		198.27
Indiana
LA Clip	3.73	0.00	194.24	0.00
	Difference	3.73		194.24
Philadelphia
Detroit	-7.29	-8.50	202.64	208.00
	Difference	1.21		-5.36
Golden State
Sacramento	5.55	4.00	197.08	198.50
	Difference	1.55		-1.42
Charlotte
Miami	-16.37	0.00	190.02	0.00
	Difference	-16.37		190.02
Minnesota
OKC	-7.71	-9.00	202.74	209.50
	Difference	1.29		-6.76
New Orleans
NY Knicks	4.66	1.00	196.16	197.50
	Difference	3.66		-1.34
Portland
LA Lakers	2.23	3.50	202.37	207.00
	Difference	-1.27		-4.63

Tomorrow's card

New Orleans -1 +100 0.1 to win 0.1

Detroit/Philadelphia Under 208 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
Minnesota/OKC Under 209.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Portland/LAL Under 207 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

Got beat pretty bad tonight. My personal NHL went bad too so it was a rough night overall, my worst of the month by quite a bit. As predicted, got beat again on Bulls side. Obviously need to pass on these games til health stabilizes things. More high total unders tomorrow. Model isn't hitting well on these situations either. Can't tell if that's just variance though since they occur under so many different scenarios.

[aznbluff]

1-3 for -0.225
Total 30-25 for +0.367

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Orlando
Washington	-2.86	-7.00	197.21	195.00
	Difference	4.14		2.21
New Orleans
Chicago	-3.07	-7.00	192.70	192.00
	Difference	3.93		0.70
Atlanta
San Antonio	-15.54	-12.00	195.89	198.00
	Difference	-3.54		-2.11
Houston
Utah	16.67	7.50	199.61	202.50
	Difference	9.17		-2.89
Indiana
Portland	3.93	2.00	192.89	192.50
	Difference	1.93		0.39

Orlando +7 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
New Orleans +7 +101 0.1 to win 0.101
San Antonio -12 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
Houston -7.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1

Got another Chicago game in there but this time taking other side. I guess Anthony Davis injury overrides Chicago's injuries

[Dopey]

1-3 for -0.225
New Orleans +7 +101 0.1 to win 0.101

Got another Chicago game in there but this time taking other side. I guess Anthony Davis injury overrides Chicago's injuries

Anthony Davis is New Orleans' best player. I'd be surprised to see them any better than last in the league in defense without him. I'd be hesitant to bet on NO at all until we see what they can do without him.

[aznbluff]

Anthony Davis is New Orleans' best player. I'd be surprised to see them any better than last in the league in defense without him. I'd be hesitant to bet on NO at all until we see what they can do without him.

Likely a good strategy but I'm just running this as a trial year for my model. I'll re-asses at the end of the year for what I need to filter out manually and how to adjust before I begin getting into the NBA market for real.

[aznbluff]

1-3 for -0.224
Total 31-28 for +0.143

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Orlando
Philadelphia	-0.09	-3.50	203.09	207.50
	Difference	3.41		-4.41
Milwaukee
Boston	-9.80	-7.50	187.57	185.50
	Difference	-2.30		2.07
Denver
Brooklyn	6.01	4.00	201.66	203.50
	Difference	2.01		-1.84
Detroit
Miami	-14.59	-10.00	199.76	201.50
	Difference	-4.59		-1.74
Phoenix
Memphis	2.03	-3.00	193.56	191.50
	Difference	5.03		2.06
Charlotte
Dallas	-8.16	-8.00	194.05	194.50
	Difference	-0.16		-0.45
OKC
Sacramento	7.45	6.50	198.67	203.00
	Difference	0.95		-4.33
Toronto
Golden State	-7.02	-7.50	195.34	200.50
	Difference	0.48		-5.16

Orlando +3.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1
Miami -10 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Phoenix +3 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Orlando/Phoenix Under 207.5 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
OKC/Sacramento Under 203 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
Toronto/Golden State Under 200.5 -106 0.106 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

2-4 for -0.229
Total 33-32 for -0.086

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Denver
Cleveland	7.92	4.00	198.34	202.00
	Difference	3.92		-3.66
LA Clip
Atlanta	2.92	3.00	202.76	202.00
	Difference	-0.08		0.76
Indiana
Utah	17.53	8.00	187.60	186.50
	Difference	9.53		1.10
San Antonio
Minnesota	5.68	4.50	200.92	205.50
	Difference	1.18		-4.58
OKC
Portland	-3.43	-2.50	201.65	204.50
	Difference	-0.93		-2.85
Dallas
New Orleans	-4.89	-2.00	203.75	207.50
	Difference	-2.89		-3.75
Phoenix
Houston	-10.94	-10.50	204.44	212.50
	Difference	-0.44		-8.06
Detroit
Milwaukee	6.37	4.50	192.74	191.50
	Difference	1.87		1.24

Denver -4 -103 0.103 to win 0.103
Indiana -8 -108 0.108 to win 0.108

San Antonio/Minnesota Under 205.5 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
Phoenix/Houston Under 212.5 +101 0.1 to win 0.101

[EasyPicks]

ur model keeps giving UNDERS.....

[aznbluff]

Ya and they are not hitting well. Don't know what to make of it

[aznbluff]

2-1 for +0.098
Total 35-33 for +0.012

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
NY Knicks
Brooklyn	-1.77	1.00	193.25	189.00
	Difference	-2.77		4.25
LA Clip
Memphis	1.08	-1.00	196.70	195.00
	Difference	2.08		1.70
Miami
Chicago	5.98	4.50	191.79	188.00
	Difference	1.48		3.79

New York/Brooklyn Over 189 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
Miami/Chicago Over 188 -108 0.108 to win 0.1

[EasyPicks]

you change to Overs = $$$in the bank

nice

[aznbluff]

2-0 for +0.2
Total 37-33 for +0.212

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Philadelphia
Charlotte	-5.38	-6.50	194.11	197.50
	Difference	1.12		-3.39
Milwaukee
Washington	-12.88	-9.50	190.72	191.50
	Difference	-3.38		-0.78
Cleveland
Atlanta	-10.23	-6.00	194.25	196.50
	Difference	-4.23		-2.25
Denver
Boston	2.84	4.00	198.57	200.50
	Difference	-1.16		-1.93
Orlando
New York	-1.20	-5.00	194.81	194.50
	Difference	3.80		0.31
Golden State
Houston	-6.27	-5.00	204.54	212
	Difference	-1.27		-7.46
OKC
New Orleans	-0.70	5.50	201.60	205.00
	Difference	-6.20		-3.40
Toronto
Phoenix	-5.64	-4.00	196.37	200.00
	Difference	-1.64		-3.63
Utah
Portland	-16.89	-11.50	197.68	201.00
	Difference	-5.39		-3.32
LA Lakers
Sacramento	0.11	-3.50	200.39	203.00
	Difference	3.61		-2.61

New Orleans +5.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Portland -11.5 -105 to win 0.1
LA Lakers +3.5 -105 to win 0.1
Atlanta -6 -107 to win 0.1
Washington -9.5 -107 to win 0.1
Orlando +5 -105 to win 0.1

Toronto/Phoenix Under 200 -108 0.108 to win 0.1

Lot of plays that just barely qualify today or just miss the cut.

Edit add

Golden State/Houston Under 212 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Another one of those Houston unders that never seem to hit

[aznbluff]

4-4 for -0.025
Total 41-37 for +0.187

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Denver
Philadelphia	6.56	7.00	206.32	213.00
	Difference	-0.44		-6.68
LA Clip
Cleveland	11.07	6.00	196.90	197.50
	Difference	5.07		-0.60
Golden State
Memphis	0.41	-1.00	194.26	192.50
	Difference	1.41		1.76
Miami
Minnesota	2.61	6.50	203.63	202.50
	Difference	-3.89		1.13
Detroit
Chicago	-4.81	-3.50	191.89	189.50
	Difference	-1.31		2.39
Indiana
San Antonio	-3.26	-3.50	189.53	189.50
	Difference	0.24		0.03
Brooklyn
Milwaukee	-1.92	2.50	192.14	189.50
	Difference	-4.42		2.64
Sacramento
Utah	3.92	-2.50	195.49	193.50
	Difference	6.42		1.99
Dallas
Portland	-6.33	-5.50	205.18	208.00
	Difference	-0.83		-2.82

LA Clippers -6 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
Minnesota +6.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Milwaukee +2.5 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
Sacramento +2.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

Denver/Philadelphia Under 213 -107 0.107 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

2-3 for -0.118
Total 43-40 for +0.069

Taking the week off for exams

[aznbluff]

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Orlando
Charlotte	-6.87	-5.00	190.34	191.50
	Difference	-1.87		-1.16
LA Clip
Boston	2.67	5.00	196.49	197.00
	Difference	-2.33		-0.51
San Antonio
Milwaukee	14.62	11.00	191.61	191.00
	Difference	3.62		0.61
Detroit
New Orleans	-5.09	-2.50	200.92	202.50
	Difference	-2.59		-1.58
Philadelphia
Minnesota	-11.65	-13.00	205.70	209.50
	Difference	1.35		-3.80
Chicago
New York	-0.54	-3.00	187.45	183.00
	Difference	2.46		4.45
OKC
Memphis	5.76	6.00	194.33	190.50
	Difference	-0.24		3.83
Utah
Sacramento	-13.14	-7.00	195.80	201.50
	Difference	-6.14		-5.70
Dallas
Golden State	-6.49	-5.50	203.55	208.50
	Difference	-0.99		-4.95

San Antonio -11 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Sacramento -7 -109 0.109 to win 0.1

Philadelphia/Minnesota Under 209.5 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
Chicago/New York Over 183 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
OKC/Memphis Over 190.5 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
Utah/Sacramento Under 201.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Dallas/Golden State Under 208.5 -108 0.108 to win 0.1

Day off, lots of totals tonight

[aznbluff]

4-3 for +0.085
Total 47-43 for +0.154

This Trey Burke for Utah is causing problems for my model I've noticed. He seems to influence both the spread and total but maybe it's just variance, though I doubt it. He is a legit impact player

Busy tomorrow so taking the day off again

[aznbluff]

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Cleveland
Orlando	-4.09	-2.00	192.69	194.00
	Difference	-2.09		-1.31
Philadelphia
Toronto	-8.42	-7.50	200.22	203.50
	Difference	-0.92		-3.28
Charlotte
Indiana	-13.07	-12.00	185.56	183.50
	Difference	-1.07		2.06
New York
Boston	-5.86	-3.50	191.72	189.50
	Difference	-2.36		2.22
Brooklyn
Detroit	-8.41	-6.50	196.49	196.50
	Difference	-1.91		-0.01
Washington
Atlanta	-4.95	-5.50	194.68	193.00
	Difference	0.55		1.68
LA Lakers
OKC	-12.72	-12.00	204.03	210.00
	Difference	-0.72		-5.97
Memphis
New Orleans	-8.83	-2.50	195.16	192.00
	Difference	-6.33		3.16
Minnesota
San Antonio	-11.82	-8.50	201.41	208.00
	Difference	-3.32		-6.59
Chicago
Milwaukee	5.20	3.50	182.98	177.00
	Difference	1.70		5.98
Utah
Denver	-16.74	-10.50	197.85	200.50
	Difference	-6.24		-2.65
Sacramento
Phoenix	-7.90	-6.50	200.19	209.00
	Difference	-1.40		-8.81
Houston
Golden State	-1.53	-3.50	202.89	212.00
	Difference	1.97		-9.11

New Orleans -2.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1
San Antonio -8.5 +100 0.1 to win 0.1
Denver -10.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

LA Lakers/OKC Under 210 -103 0.103 to win 0.1
Minnesota/San Antonio Under 208 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
Chicago/Milwaukee Over 177 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
Sacramento/Phoenix Under 209 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
Houston/Golden State Under 212 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

2-6 for -0.424
Total 49-49 for -0.27

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
LA Lakers
Charlotte	-4.36	-2.50	194.97	199.50
	Difference	-1.86		-4.53
LA Clip
Washington	1.99	4.00	195.04	192.50
	Difference	-2.01		2.54
Cleveland
Miami	-16.33	-13.00	194.26	199.50
	Difference	-3.33		-5.24
Atlanta
New York	1.66	1.00	194.06	191.50
	Difference	0.66		2.56
Portland
Philadelphia	12.04	10.50	205.66	210.50
	Difference	1.54		-4.84
Toronto
Chicago	-3.03	-2.50	188.15	186.50
	Difference	-0.53		1.65
Milwaukee
Dallas	-14.29	-11.50	194.24	195.50
	Difference	-2.79		-1.26
San Antonio
Utah	15.88	6.50	196.80	195.50
	Difference	9.38		1.30

Miami -13 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
San Antonio -6.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

LA Lakers/Charlotte Under 199.5 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
Cleveland/Miami Under 199.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1
Portland/Philadelphia Under 210.5 -104 0.104 to win 0.1

High totals killing me, don't know if running bad or playing bad

[aznbluff]

2-3 for -0.118
Total 51-52 for -0.388

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Indiana
Miami	-6.02	-3.00	193.82	189.00
	Difference	-3.02		4.82
Utah
Orlando	-9.57	-4.50	195.00	196.00
	Difference	-5.07		-1.00
Charlotte
Toronto	-7.56	-6.50	188.64	190.50
	Difference	-1.06		-1.86
Sacramento
Atlanta	-8.99	-6.50	199.99	204.50
	Difference	-2.49		-4.51
Detroit
Boston	-3.17	-1.00	194.56	195.00
	Difference	-2.17		-0.44
Washington
Brooklyn	-4.21	-4.50	194.66	196.00
	Difference	0.29		-1.34
New York
Milwaukee	3.38	3.00	188.44	186.50
	Difference	0.38		1.94
Portland
Minnesota	1.41	-2.00	207.75	213.00
	Difference	3.41		-5.25
Memphis
Dallas	-10.39	-9.50	197.43	192.00
	Difference	-0.89		5.43
San Antonio
Phoenix	3.02	3.00	200.30	202.00
	Difference	0.02		-1.70
Chicago
Houston	-11.17	-7.50	192.73	191.00
	Difference	-3.67		1.73
New Orleans
LA Clip	-9.58	-10.50	201.39	205.00
	Difference	0.92		-3.61

Done exams so I have some free time now to calculate Kelly bet sizing and watch games to adjust

Orlando -4.5 -102 0.172 to win 0.169
Portland +2 -101 0.115 to win 0.114
Houston -7.5 -109 0.133 to win 0.122

Indiana/Miami Over 189 -103 0.142 to win 0.138
Sacramento/Atlanta Under 204.5 -105 0.135 to win 0.129
Portland/Minnesota Under 213 -101 0.152 to win 0.15
Memphis/Dallas Over 192 -105 0.163 to win 0.155
New Orleans/LA Clip Under 205 +100 0.103 to win 0.103

Still getting killed on high totals

[labones00]

ur model keeps giving UNDERS.....

In your model are you using totals from last season at all? That could explain it predicting all these unders...

[RudyRuetigger]

lets hope azn is better than this model