NBA Totals Question

[carolinacapper]

Need opinions on chasing steam in NBA totals. Been tracking totals that have biggest movement each day since 11/1. Here is what I have so far, and I know this is not even close to enough of a sample size but wondering if this is even worth spending any time on. So far, if you would have just bet in the direction of biggest steam it would have covered almost every time no matter what number you got. Been searching forums about this and need more info- Thanks

Date	Team	Open (5D)	Close	Final Score Total
11/1	LAC/SAC	196	202'	211
	DAL/HOU	202	207	218
	PHI/WASH	196	201	211
11/2	CHAR/N.O.	189	184'	189
11/3	BOS/DET	191	193	164
11/4	HOU/LAC	206	211	252
11/5	HOU/PORT	204	208'	217
11/6	CLE/MIL	186	190	211
11/7	MIA/LAC	211'	207'	199

[JR007]

those results are very early ,I feel that if it moves more than two points the value is gone, gotta be careful with totals, I tend to fade those big moves.....lines are "soft" early on, check the "steam" over at pregame.com( wire**

[carolinacapper]

Thanks JR, I have also been checking SportsInsights, they list each line movement and what time it moved. I was trying to see if there was any "buyback" close to game time, thinking this might be another factor. So far haven't seen it. My understanding is that NBA totals are not as popular with the public and trying to determine if the "sharps" that like totals can be tracked in any way.

[mtofell]

I'm 31-21 so far this year betting NBA o/u with a really simple system. I can't tell if I've just been lucky or if I'm on to something. Basically, the higher totals I take the over and the lower totals I take the under. There's a bit more to it than that but that's what I start with and it has worked out okay. I'm just playing around betting $3-5 a game just to track it for awhile. I've thrown down some larger amounts on some games. Last night's LAL/HOU game for example opened at 219.5 - that's just too high. I think the books got a bit out over their skis on some of these high totals so far. In contrast, I also killed it on the LAC/GSW last week. That opened around 208 (I think) which was a joke in the other direction. I think they had close to that by the 3rd qtr. I think the total ended up around 260.

Betting o/u is a bit less fun than winners/losers but for me is more profitable. I'm still looking over tonight's games to see if there is one to jump on. I'll post back if I find something.

[mtofell]

Sorry OP..... got typing and forgot to even answer your question. I agree it's early and you have very little data. All the steam really means is the book set the line too far in one direction and either the public or the sharps think they know better. With it being so early I don't think the books put a lot of effort into these lines compared to football being so hot. So, around half of the time you're just following the public (not a good career path). I've read a bit about systems based off of what you're looking at and they fizzle for the most part. I'd say it's worth tracking for a bit though.

Also, I made Washington/Brooklyn my big play for the 4PM games. Over 197.5

There's a lot of offense on those teams. I may be a bit biased though as I have two guys from my fantasy team playing so I wanted to watch the game anyway.