warriors -7 , phil just beat the 2 best nba teams and there getting 7 at home wtf
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Its a sucker betComment -
Philly no longer a sleeper team, reality comes down hard on them.
GS -7Comment -
Team 1: Off Efficiency(OFFe)-Defensive Eff(DEFe)= Efficiency Difference(EFFd)
Team 2: (OFFe)-(DEFe)=(EFFd)
Tm1(EFFd)-Tm2(EFFd)=Game Difference(GD)
(GD) multiplied by the pace (negligible effect in NBA since # game possessions close to 100) then +/- for the difference on the road and you get the spread.
I know they use it in College Basketball later on in the season, since the nuetral games towards march work out perfectly... It works for this game but sample size isn't large enough yet so its just coincidence I believe. Haven't checked it for the NBA, though I imagine they use later on in the year.Comment -
Efficiency stats ... Its what the books use to make there lines especially CBB later on the year (too many games to handicap)
EX: 2012 National Championship Game ...Louisville's Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rankings were appx. (116.5-88), Michigan Wolverines clocked in at (112.5) offensively and (94) Defensively. The difference between the two for Louisville (28.5) and (18.5) for Louisville. Subtract the two 28.5-18.5=you get 10 pts.
Then account for the average number of possessions per game and the figure comes down to about 6.5. Now the lined opened up and 3.5 which means that the books new the public would be taking Michigan (percentages were 60/40 if I remember correctly) so they shaved some points of the Michigan side, knowing the stood a good chance to collect a nice profit of the public's ignorance. While the Smart money knew the Louisville was undervalued and were able to push the line up to -4. The outcome, Lousville wins by the final score of 82-76.
This practice is blatantly obvious during conference tournament time when there are 75-100 neutral games. Now, I didn't pay attention to the opening lines but closing lines were generally around that figure as smart money (books included probably) would push the line back to that #. Or maybe they had a good angle and would push the line a point or two off that number, but in general thats how books will handicap CBB lines, and NBA lines later in the season I imagine.
And even if they didn't it still gives you a good idea as two what games present a little extra value (EV).Comment
