2013-14 NBA Picks vs the spread

CJ · 11-01-13, 06:01 PM

YTD: 1-1-1 (-$10)

I can live with 1-1-1, especially when a meaningless James Harden 3 with 6 seconds left saved me from 1-2.

I'm not thrilled with the Wolves/Magic game, not because the Wolves squandered a double-digit lead, but because I was too gung-ho for the start of the season and forced that pick, something I will avoid going forward.

Tonight I like:

HEAT -4.5 @ Nets (1 unit) - Miami lost back to back gams three times last year, but two of those were in weird spots (including a 4 in 5). I know Brooklyn will want to beat them bad, but Deron Williams looks "off" and I don't think the Nets are all in sync yet with such drastic off-season moves. This may actually be more of a statement game for the Heat off that ugly loss to Philly. Plus, I think Wade will go all-out in the games he plays this year. PICK: HEAT

Blazers @ NUGGETS -5 (1 unit) - The Nuggets haven't lost a home opener since 2008, and that was to the eventual champion, Los Angeles Lakers. The Blazers showed me nothing Tuesday night, and I think Denver carries over their strong play at home from last year, despite all the off-season changes. I know Faried isn't 100%, and Chandler will be out, but I think the Nuggets' depth will compensate for this. PICK: NUGGETS

Jazz @ SUNS -4 (1 Unit) - The Jazz played with heart Tuesday night, nearly beating the Thunder, but Utah always plays well at home. Plus, the Thunder aren't exactly a dominant team without Westbrook. The Suns looked good against Portland, and head coach Jeff Hornacek knows the Jazz inside and out, having spend the past few years as an assistant coach there. PICK: SUNS

CJ · 11-02-13, 02:05 PM

Yesterday: 0-3 (-$330)
YTD: 1-4-1 (-$340)

Ugh... that was plain embarrassing, I can live with a bad break or two, but two of those games were just flat out wrong. I think Miami is to be avoided for now. The Denver game was puzzling though, I did not expect Portland to come into Denver and shoot 14 of 22 behind the arc.

The good news is I'm sure no one was following, as I'm completely unproven. However, let's see how today goes before you all start fading...

Cavs @ PACERS -8.5 (1 unit) - Why is the public pounding Cleveland, is there something I'm missing? The Cavs got smacked around by the Pacers last year, despite Kyrie Irving playing 3 of those games. Cleveland took a tough loss in Charlotte last night, while the Pacers are at home coming off 2 days rest. The Pacers are a great home team and should win this one by 10+. PICK: PACERS

Bobcats @ PELICANS -8 (1 unit) - Charlotte lost 32 road games by 8+ last year. I think New Orleans will want to make amends after getting blown out last night, possibly rebounding with a blow out of their own. Jefferson is likely out again too. PICK: PELICANS

Raptors @ BUCKS +1 (1 unit) - The Bucks have actually looked reasonable through 2 games. Milwaukee have lost 1 home opener since 2003 (although that was to Toronto). The Bucks have taken 12 of the last 13 meetings with Toronto, including the last 10 straight. PICK: BUCKS

Spurs @ BLAZERS (1 unit) - The Blazers haven't lost a home opener since 2000, to the Lakers behind 36 points from Shaq. Shaq won't be playing for San Antonio tonight, and it doesn't look like Tim Duncan will either. I don't know how the Spurs are going to contain LeMarcus Aldridge, and I think the Blazers make it 13 straight home opener wins. PICK: BLAZERS

CJ · 11-03-13, 10:34 AM

Yesterday: 3-1 (+$190)
YTD: 4-5-1 (-$150)

I can't complain much about a 3-1 day. Although, I wasn't thrilled to see the Raptors took 20 more free throws than the Bucks last night, despite the game being played in Milwaukee.

TIMBERWOLVES @ Knicks -4 (1 unit) - The Knicks barely beat a mediocre Bucks team in their opener, and then lost to a struggling Bulls team. The absence of JR Smith, a pair of predictably lousy performances by Bargnani coupled with Anthony jacking up as many ill-advised shots as ever, has me believing this Knicks team's basement might be lower than the 5th seed. The Wolves held Durant to 13 points on Friday, so I think they can contain Anthony tonight and have a great shot at winning in MSG. PICK: TIMBERWOLVES

Hawks @ LAKERS +2 (1 unit) - The Hawks are tremendously over-rated, "experts" pegged them as the 6th seed in the East, and I just don't see it. Atlanta barely beat Toronto in their home opener, despite hitting 10 of 23 behind the arc AND shooting 17 more free throws than the Raptors. The Lakers have their own three game road trip looming, so I think there will be some urgency on LA's behalf. PICK: LAKERS

CJ · 11-04-13, 11:05 AM

Yesterday: 2-0 (+$200)
YTD: 6-5-1 (+$50)

Rockets @ CLIPPERS -4.5 (1 unit) - The Rockets really haven't been tested yet, and I think this should be an early statement game for the Clippers, coming off a weekend of rest. The Staples Center may be a house of horrors for Dwight this year, and I doubt he'll have the same incentive to go out and dominate the Clippers like he might the Lakers. Either way, I expect heavy boos for Howard, and we all know how well he deals with that. PICK: CLIPPERS

CJ · 11-05-13, 09:53 AM

Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
YTD: 7-5-1 (+$150)

PACERS @ Pistons +1.5 (1 unit) - Indiana smoked Detroit in all four meetings last year, I know the Pistons are much better so far, but they’re not quite on Indiana’s level yet. The Pacers are coming off an extra day of rest and I think they’ll want to prove to Detroit who the team to beat in the Central is. I thought this line would be closer to 5, so I think we’re getting good value here. PICK: PACERS

Hawks @ KINGS -2.5 (1 unit) - Atlanta came all the way back from 21 down to the Lakers, only to lose in the closing seconds, I’m not sure how they’ll get up for a Kings team they’ve beaten 11 straight times. Atlanta has digressed, and I like the idea of fading them on the road against a Kings team that is far more competent at Sleep Train Arena: PICK: KINGS

Rockets @ BLAZERS -1.5 (2 units) - Houston ran a track meet last night in LA, I have no idea how they’ll keep up with a rested Blazers team tonight. Worse yet, this is Houston’s 4th game in 5 nights, and 5th in the span of a week, the NBA schedule makers did them no favors early on. Portland was also very tough at home last year, until injuries sent them into a tailspin. PICK: BLAZERS

CJ · 11-06-13, 06:37 PM

Yesterday: 1-2 (-$230)
YTD: 8-7-1 (-$80)

Obviously not happy with yesterday's results. I'm very surprised at how well Houston played in that spot, this will not stop me from fading teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Alas, I was dead wrong in both the late games, just gotta shake it off and move on now.

Bulls @ PACERS - 3 (1 unit) - I know the Pacers played last night, but this Indiana team is on fire. Chicago has looked out of sorts so far, trying to reacclimate Rose into the team. The Pacers are great at home, and much like last night in Detroit, I think they’ll want to prove to Chicago that they’re the team to beat in the Central. PICK: PACERS

BULLETS @ Sixers +3 (1 unit) - Golden State finally brought Philly back down to Earth on Monday, and I think the team will start losing a few games now. At 0-3 Washington is desperate to get their first win of the season, and should capitalize facing Philly for a second time in week. PICK: BULLETS

Jazz @ CELTICS -5 (1 unit) - I know both teams 0-4, but I can’t see the Celtics dropping another home contest. The Jazz looked really uncompetitive in their previous outing, and I think Stevens will have a good defensive game plan for Hayward. PICK: CELTICS

Warriors @ TIMBERWOLVES +1 (1 unit) - Minnesota has looked pretty solid so far, while the Warriors have thrived against weaker opposition. In Minnesota’s 3 wins they’ve got off to early leads, and I think they can do that tonight. I think the Wolves are the right side coming off a loss, as they’ll want to prove they’re a legit play-off team this year. PICK: TIMBERWOLVES

CJ · 11-08-13, 06:23 PM

Wednesday: 3-1 (+$190)
YTD: 11-8-1 (+$110)

KNICKS @ Bobcats +3.5 (1 unit) - The Bobcats have played well so far, but for some reason it’s still hard for me to see them winning three in a row. The Knicks are desperate for a win, and have had nothing to do but game plan for Charlotte, after losing to them on Tuesday. Look for the Knicks to respond to all the criticism they’ve been taking. PICK: KNICKS

Raptors @ PACERS -8 (1 unit) - I have no idea why the public money is coming in on Toronto. Indiana is on fire, and they play great at home. I’m going to keep betting them until they give me a reason to stop. PICK: PACERS

Nuggets @ SUNS -2 (1 unit) - Denver looks to be in complete disarray so far, they needed a furious rally just to beat the Hawks last night. Phoenix has played well at home, so I like the idea of taking advantage of this small line while the public perception of the Nuggets hasn’t adjusted since last season. PICK: SUNS

Kings @ BLAZERS -7.5 (1 unit) - Portland just got embarrassed at home, so I look for them to have a strong bounce back game tonight against the Kings. Though the series split 2-2, all four meetings between these teams last year were blow-outs. I think that continues tonight, with Portland getting the W. PICK: BLAZERS

CJ · 11-09-13, 03:29 PM

Yesterday: 3-1 (+$190)
YTD: 14-9-1 (+$300)

I guess Terrence Ross hates me, should've been a 4-0 night. Ugh, well moving along...

Jazz @ RAPTORS -8.5 (1 unit) - This is an interesting match up with both teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights. The major difference is while the Raptors were competitive with teams like Indiana and Miami, the Jazz have been getting blown out by everyone, including previously winless Boston. I think Utah will mail it in again tonight, hoping to head home and regroup there. PICK: RAPTORS

Clippers @ ROCKETS -2 (1 unit) - The Clippers are coming off back to back losses in Florida, while Houston will undoubtedly want to make amends for their blow out loss in LA less than a week ago. I can't see the Rockets letting both LA teams come into Houston and walk out winners, so I like Houston to even the season series with the Clips here. PICK: ROCKETS

Warriors @ GRIZZLIES -3 (1 unit) - Golden State battled valiantly last night without Steph Curry, but still came up a bit short in San Antonio. I'm not sure how these guys will bounce back against a rested Memphis team, looking to rebound from an embarrassing home defeat. PICK: GRIZZLIES

Mavericks @ BUCKS +3 (2 units) - I have no idea how this old Dallas team will be competitive playing their 4th game in 5 nights, on the road against a rested Bucks team. I think Milwaukee wins this game outright, but I'll play it safe and take the points anyway. PICK: BUCKS

CJ · 11-10-13, 01:12 PM

Yesterday: 2-2 (-$130)
YTD: 16-11-1 (+$170)

38% shooting from the floor and 62% from the free throw line by Milwaukee, I guess that's how... that Bucks game really frustrated me, because Milwaukee decided to spot Dallas 15 points in the first quarter, trailing by as much as 17 at one point. I really thought Milwaukee was going to rally, but fittingly it was another OJ Mayo turnover late in the game that sealed it for Dallas. As usual, shake it off and move on...

Bullets @ THUNDER -9 (1 unit) - Washington is playing better, but their two wins are over Brooklyn (who is presently last in the East) and a Philly team they already had a look at a few days prior. OKC is rolling right now, and Durant is on fire as usual. Add to that Westbrook's dominance over Wall in these match-ups, and I think OKC wins easily. PICK: THUNDER

PELICANS @ Suns +1.5 (1 unit) - Phoenix hasn't lost at home yet, but I'm not quite sold on the Suns. They needed late game heroics to beat both the Jazz and Nuggets, who are a combined 1-11. I believe New Orleans will want to return the favor for their recent home loss to the Suns, a game in which Gerald Green couldn't miss behind the arc and the Suns still only won by 6. Anthony Davis also had his lowest offensive output that night scoring 17. If New Orleans can win in Memphis, they can win in Phoenix. PICK: PELICANS

CJ · 11-11-13, 06:38 PM

Yesterday: 0-2 (-$220)
YTD: 16-13-1 (-$50)

Lame. The season is still early, but I hope to start making some upward progress, before making some heavier bets. Anyway, let's hope I win at least one tonight.

Grizzlies @ PACERS -6.5 (1 unit) - Again Indiana is on fire, and playing great at home. Memphis has struggled on the road. Gonna keep riding the Pacers until they prove otherwise. PICK: PACERS

Magic @ CELTICS -2.5 (1 unit) - The Celtics are rolling, and should have great confidence after knocking off Miami on the road. Plus the Magic have played poorly away from Orlando. PICK: CELTICS

Nuggets @ JAZZ +3 (1 unit) - Right now Denver doesn’t deserve to be laying points on the road to anybody, even Utah. The Jazz mailed in their last two games, but I think part of that was looking ahead to getting things back on track in Utah. The Jazz won’t stay winless forever. PICK: JAZZ

CJ · 11-12-13, 06:39 PM

Yesterday: 2-1 (+$90)
YTD: 18-14-1 (+$40)

Wow the Jazz suck, they might not even win 15 games.

Pistons @ WARRIORS -9.5 (1 unit) - I like to pick good teams playing at home, coming off blow-out losses, as they tend to rebound nicely. The Piston defense has looked quite porous in their recent losses, and I expect sharpshooting Golden State to exploit that. Plus the Pistons have lost three close games to tough opponents, including last night, and may not be too frustrated to focus on this one. PICK: WARRIORS

CJ · 11-13-13, 06:59 PM

Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
YTD: 19-14-1 (+$140)

I'll have more picks soon, I just wanted to get this one posted before tip-off.

Bobcats @ CELTICS -6 (1 unit) - I’ve mentioned this repeatedly already, but the Bobcats are atrocious on the road. Meanwhile the Celtics have sprinted back to .500. Boston should be able to keep their winning streak going at home, where they’ve had little trouble with lesser opponents, like Charlotte. PICK: CELTICS

CJ · 11-13-13, 07:50 PM

KNICKS @ Hawks -5 (1 unit) - The Knicks have looked awful, but they’ve taken 7 of their last 8 meetings with Atlanta. JR Smith returns, and I think that coupled with wanting to make up for an embarrassing loss to San Antonio, will have New York motivated tonight. The Hawks have flourished off a soft schedule, beating teams that I do not expect to make the play-offs. New York should keep this one close. PICK: KNICKS

Lakers @ NUGGETS -9.5 (1 unit) - The lazy Lakers have looked miserable playing in back-to-back games this year. I don’t see why that should change here against a rested Denver team that seemed to find their way late in the game Monday night in Utah. PICK: NUGGETS

NETS @ Kings +4 (1 unit) - The Nets have had a couple days to hear about how bad they’ve started and make some adjustments. Meanwhile, the Kings only win came opening night, at home by 2, over a Nuggets team that really stumbled out of the gate. I expect the veteran leadership to guide Brooklyn to a much needed road win. PICK: NETS

CJ · 11-15-13, 05:17 PM

Wednesday: 2-2 (-$20)
YTD: 21-16-1 (+$120)

BLAZERS @ Celtics +2.5 (1 unit) - The Celtics are coming off a tough loss to brutal Charlotte. I’m not sure how they’ll bounce back against a Portland team that has won 4 in a row. I think Boston is going to experience a lot of ups and downs this season, and they may be headed into another losing streak. PICK: BLAZERS

Bobcats @ CAVS -5.5 (1 unit) - The Bobcats are going for their third straight road win, a position they were in twice last year and came up with losses of 21 and 45. Cleveland just got embarrassed in Minnesota and I think they’re due for a good game and a double digit win. Charlotte also has Miami tomorrow, as stupid as the idea of the Bobcats overlooking anyone sounds, it’s possible. PICK: CAVS

Mavericks @ HEAT -8.5 (1 unit) - Ever since Dallas beat Miami in the finals, LeBron has gone out of his way to get revenge. The Heat have won all four meetings with Dallas by double-digits, and I don’t see that stopping now. Meanwhile Dallas is 1-3 SU & ATS on the road, with that one win of course coming when I took Milwaukee. PICK: HEAT