I've been on a cold spell this month and have focused mainly on poker as of late, but I'd like to get back to making NBA picks. I will use this thread to list my plays and hopefully we can get some useful comments and discussion on here as well. Daily picks will be in subsequent posts.
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2/11/09
These are the first ones to catch my eye. Revisions and additions may follow in the morning.
- Orlando -8 (B.5): Already been some discussion on this forum about this play. Both teams are rested ready to go. Orlando performs well against high scoring teams as well as when playing with 2 days rest. Denver scares me a bit with how well they score but I gotta go with the numbers here.
- Cleveland -6 (B1.5): Suns chemistry is uncertain, as a team they have underperformed this year. Cavs have lost 2 and failed to cover the spread in their last 3. Hard to imagine this will continue.
- LAL @ Utah OVER 215.5: Jazz like to run the floor and score well at home. Lakers don't have much defense, and I think there will be a lot high scoring quarters where baskets get traded back and forth at a quick clip.
Interested in the following but waiting for lines:
- Boston and Hornets
- Atlanta and Detroit
- ?
Thoughts?Comment -
Thank You for posting. Have to agree with you on the Utah Over and The Cavs -6 Good Luck!
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orl and clev and bos are already good picksComment -
Thanks for the support guys. Games begin within the next 30 minutes or so. I got a couple late additions/thoughts.
- Orlando dropped from -8.5 to -7. I'm going to get a few more $ on this one. Also adding Orlando first half -3.5. This one really jumps out at me. Orlando well rested should come out of the gate really quick. This will be a big play for me.
-Going to add some action on Spurs at -6 (B.5). Lots of talk on the forum about this one and I gotta agree. Both teams are back to back coming off road games. I kinda like under here as well, so small parlay with under and Spurs.
Likely to make a few more bets on later games and halftime lines, but for now, card for today:
- Orlando -8 (1 unit) & -7 (1 unit)
- Orlando -3.5 1H (4 units)
- Cavs -6 (2 units) (line moved a bunch on this one with Nash out)
- Spurs -6.5 (2 units)
- Fun parlay on a hunch: Spurs -6.5, Under 190, Detroit -2.5 (B1), Over 188.5. (.25 Unit)Comment -
Yikes! Orlando having some issues, to say the least. Taking them at -7.5 for second half. 6 units... Try to make up some ground.Comment -
Twilight zone games going on here! Holding off on my original lean with Jazz/Lakers, will likely make a half time wager.Comment -
Orlando -7.5 2nd H cashed. Spurs choked, but the Cavs came through. Very strange outcomes on a few of these games today... Just below break even for the day. Small play on LAC at -5.5 for 1.5 units. Watching the Portland game and considering a half time bet. Wish I had stayed with my lean with over on the LAL/Utah game, just sat on it too long and never got the bet in. Oh well.Comment -
2/12/09
So, not a great day, but not terrible either. Down about 2 units. 3 Games for Thursday, already have a bet on one. Still thinking about the other two.
- Golden State -2.5: These guys are a semi-local team for me, I watch them play fairly often and know how strong they are at home. I expect them to come up with a nice win here against Portland who is a good team but rather mediocre on the road. Line has already climbed, dare I say we see -4.5 by game?
No other picks yet, but looking at the totals and other games. Early feeling is that I like Miami Ml and Dallas Ml, both for small upsets. Not sure on totals yet, I will post before game time tomorrow.
Thoughts?Comment -
Bro that John Daly pic, depresses me to the point, that I cant even take your picks seriously. The GSW game is a good look, since last time @Portland, Stephen Jack was out. Plus Monta Ellis is looking good, and he gives them scorers at all positions (-)Turiaf.Comment -
Lol, sorry to hear that, perhaps I'll search for a new avatar. I must admit I was always a fan of Daly, the good times and the bad.
Yes, the Warriors are much better than their record would suggest. I feel very confident playing them tomorrow and for that matter for most home games.Comment -
Man that picture is depressing..WoW what the hell happened 2 the Orlando Magic today??? They Murdered a 6 Team 5.5 Point teaser BIG OUCH, * They were the last Team I expected to do me like that.. Every time I bet them they disappoint me!!Comment -
Better update my NBA Season Record
Golden State is A
4 me tomorrow -1.5 Good Luck Fellas
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Yeah, sorry slowroll... Orlando seemed solid to me too, never expected a 29 point first half. Very weird stuff.Comment -
Looks like my lean on Miami was correct, wish I had followed it up with a bet. Going to take a small 1 unit play on Dallas ML like I mentioned in my early post. Already have a big play in on GS at -2.5. Considering taking the under in the next two games, everyone looks lazy and ready for a break, we could see some rather low scoring games. Thoughts?Comment -
If it wasn't for that pic i would have tailed you. Damn you John Daly!!! I got Chi instead.Comment -
Lol, sorry bud, not much love on the forum here for my avatar
. I'll look for a new one perhaps... By the way Dallas and under looking solid so far, good to see my instincts appear to be on track... at least for today...
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New avatar after about five comments... though this one is no less disturbing.
Dallas and under looking good, and GS appears to be playing.... get ready... DEFENSE!!!
Even the under with golden state appears to be on track. Not bad tonight.Comment -
Hedge bet, fairly big on Portland -2 second half... try to middle this...Comment -
Another bone-chilling pic from our bud, Donkey. Yo how do you get the pic under the screen name? Ive got a Photo but doesnt show up on my post.Comment -
So to recap, it was a very solid day. I leaned on Miami for an upset, which hit. I took a small play on Dallas which looked great until a collapse in the fourth. I noted after the Miami game that players looked tired and we might see some low scoring games, and all games went under. I took GS at -2.5 big and hit, and middled it with Portland -2 and the half for a good size bet which hit as well. All in all a pretty good day. Congrats on all that tailed me, and lets enjoy the break and the all star festivities.
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Just for Fun
So, I was understandably disappointed when I found that there was no action being taken on the celebrity game this afternoon, I figured to hit it big with some Chris Tucker dunk prop bets...
Anyway, I'm sure to be watching the Rook/Soph challenge. I know the sophs have won the last 7 years or something, and favored again this year. I actually prefer the Rookie lineup, but doubt them to play as well together as the the Sophs. But seeing how this is a bet that will be small, and a game that will be watched while severely inebriated, I might as well take the upset.
- Rooks ML parlay with Over 249.5. Tiny bet, for no other reason than because I'm an addict who needs action on something.
Lol, good luck guys, and enjoy the games.Comment -
12/17/09
Hi everyone, I hope you all enjoyed the break and the all star events. I'm going to toss out a few early leans on a few games. I only have 1 play booked already, so I'll follow up with a post before game time with all of my additional plays.
- Atlanta @ LAL OVER 213.5: I expect LAL to set the pace for this game. Everyone is coming into this rested and ready to play. We all know that the Lakers can put up points in a hurry, and Atlanta has proven that they can score a lot when they need to. This is my only booked play thus far...
Leans- The line for the Rockets can be found as low as 5.5. Not sure who plans to play for them yet, but I've got my eye on them. No line yet for Utah, but of course they are a force at home. Will be watching that line closely. More to come... Thoughts?Comment -
What's up Razz! The speculation in S.B.R is Atlanta covers the point spread buying 2 points. I have to agree with the consensus.
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Hey Slowroll,
Good to see you viewing my thread, hope you had a great weekend! I know everyone here is on Atlanta to cover, and they very well may, but I'm not real sure about this one. The Hawks are not the best road team, and the Lakers are just plain scary at home. I wish you best of luck, but I doubt I'll touch this one.
I am going to book Houston at -5.5. I really like this one, no way I can sit on it any longer. Also going to be watching the total on the Orlando game (Can't help but think it will be too high when its is finally set), and the line for Indiana (Upset maybe, still thinking about it) ... Best of luck all.Comment -
2/20/09
I haven't posted here in a day or two. I'm looking at the games for tomorrow and the first one to catch my eye was Atl @ Por. I really like Portland at -5, buy half a point to get it to -4.5. Considering the Cavs at -7.5, might take that one down to -6.5. Also nervous about Orlando in their recent form, but really tempted to play them at -2.5. I always give a bit of an edge to the home team on a friday night, so I have to think these over a bit.
I will post tomorrow before the games with booked plays, though I can say for certainty that I'm taking Portland -4.5 tonight.
Thoughts?Comment -
Portland -4.5 hits no problem. Hope others were on this one as well, seemed like a gimme. Had a few other bets hit but didn't post them, so I won't bother talking about them. Looks like my early leans on the Cavs and Orlando were solid as well, so good nite all in all.
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