Reverse Line Movement Theory

yisman · 01-14-09, 06:13 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/107413-when-spread-doesnt-move-follow-money.html

SexyMit · 01-14-09, 06:42 PM

It works in the long run... YES makes lots of money

Dexter · 01-14-09, 06:51 PM

cts5 - what will you do in this example?

81% of the public is on the hawks who opened at 4.5, but are currently at 4 (slight rlm to the clips)

what if, right before tipoff the line goes to 5? that could easily be sharp money as well - i like incorporating rlm as one of many factors, but i dont think its straight forward enough to use by itself. i guess if you filter it in a way that works, you could find something. good luck.

SexyMit · 01-14-09, 06:54 PM

I don't like to mess with them on only half a point moves... If it goes back up right before gametime I bail out. If it continues to go down or stays the same then I stay with my play.

CTS5 · 01-15-09, 05:39 AM

2-4, pretty bad

NBA Hero · 01-15-09, 10:48 AM

you went for the dogs? fading the public?
how long will this experiment last?

larryacraig · 01-15-09, 12:34 PM

It went 6-0 for me Monday Night

mixpicks · 01-15-09, 04:34 PM

Yes, with out any other Info. RLM is the Best Indicator of the, Steam and Sharp Money...
R.L.M. makes up for about 90% of my plays, and Long Term I make Profits. esp. with Totals.
bol,
"Now, (IMO) That's The Way To Capp da Games"

mixpicks · 01-15-09, 04:37 PM

ooohhh yes must also get the game at the Original Number, even If you must buy pts...
like to move line 2 or 3pts off the oddmakers number, lastnite as posted SA moneyline.

wake M/L
Bos-7.5
___________
Tonight, dosn't look to great except for maybe Rhode Island

CTS5 · 01-15-09, 05:11 PM

Chicago +7.5

CTS5 · 01-15-09, 07:18 PM

I think I should filter games where the movement is only half a point. Maybe set a limit of 1.5 or 2 point movements only.

Masu485 · 01-15-09, 07:41 PM

just look at the thread yisman posted. it has all the information u will ever need.

-has a link to an article about it's past performance
-has information for betting RLM on MLs and spreads
-has alternative ways to track where the money is going.
-has a tracked sample size of 100 plays (excl. nhl)

pubster77 · 01-15-09, 10:36 PM

link to the thread =)

CTS5 · 01-16-09, 07:42 AM

chicago tapped, 3-4

CTS5 · 01-16-09, 06:27 PM

Sixers +3

Sacramento +1

Record today, 3-4

CTS5 · 01-17-09, 06:29 AM

1-1 today, 4-5

CTS5 · 01-18-09, 04:10 PM

Oklahoma City -1

Dana4U · 01-19-09, 11:47 AM

OK City was a loss.

I have found the RLM principle pretty damn successful when you couple it with NCAAB home team dawgs. So when you have a home team dawg and the RLM principle in play, you have a favorable outcome more times than not. Home court advantage appears to be more of a factor in college than in pro.