Leans for Wednesday 1/7/09 PC Play Alert

[Dana4U]

College Parlay

What do you think about this line up?

Duke -14
Tennessee -4
Eastern Mich +8.5
Memphis -19
Cinci -3.5

we got a college parlay of the day ck?

[ragiche]

It was a rough night for some of us last night.(All the dogs covered,WOW!)I have a good feeling that we can get them(bookies) tonight.My research mostly based on the players performance last 5 games overall and min. played or players performance against their opponent.It's not 100% accurate but it works(around 67%-82%).I don't usually use stats cause i'm weak in numbers,so thats why i'm here to learn more from you guys that i don't know.I'm using all of your info combining with mine.It helps alot to me and hopefully it will also help you guys).I lose alot last night cause i didn't do my work(cause i'm sick),I just follow you guys(No offence,i don't blame you with this and i never will).We win or lose i'm still with you all.So my plays for tonight:

Cavs -13.5 (pc+peter's post) The cavs will do their job defending their home blowing out opponents.Without z they will be ok.Guarding okafor?there's big ben,but i don't see emeka is a threat.With the overtime+b2b,the two guards(felton&augustin)and GW will have tired legs against the two guards of cle with rest(west&mo).So that's leave diaw,I know he's playing very well lately but i don't see him that he can carry a team.(thoughts) West and Mo always plays well against the bobs.So there you go there is defense and there is alot of offense.(playing very heavy)

Lal -9 +over 225.5(my pick) They are also in a b2b.But the travel will not be a problem(It's not far from LA to GS)so not that tired.Odom is not playing(hyperextended knee).So more min. for trevor,means that it will be a fast,run and gun game for both teams.Kobe and fisher owns this warriors team.And with their embarrasing lose last night,i think the real LA team will come out tonight.(Heavy play on both)

OkC +6(joana)Nice research.Both teams will be in b2b.So these two are tired.I found this game will go down to the wire just like their 2 meetings earlier.I'm also waiting to play under 1qtr.(prediction in the line between 50 to 52).(Heavy play on both)

Utah-3.5(my pick)Because of a b2b game of the hornets against a powerful team like the lakers.Deron vs. Paul,this will be a good matchup.Deron always have the edge over Paul.This is salt lake the loudiest crowd in the NBA.The jazz always owns NO while they are in their building.I smell blowout.(Don't you feel any weird that the jazz give a spread to NO that beat LA.I smell a trap here,everybody will be on the hornets this game).(playing very heavy)

Same as usual.Always accept any suggestions and comments from you guys.What do you think CK,Peterpan19,Joana,Dexter,Showtime and maddogg?Because all of you always give some stats. Any thoughts?

[joanapoker]

so far just one bet CK??

no Atlanta? Bucks?

nothing more that u like?

[Dexter]

ragiche - we agree on several plays, so i like your card. no opinion on the lakers. though i believe they are 4-0 ats last 4 trips to gstate.

[Dana4U]

Hornets are a full point RLM play right now.

[ragiche]

thanks dex!

[joanapoker]

80% of the money on the 76ers and the line is still as a rock on the bucks -7

I wanna take this line.....

any thoughts anyone?

[ragiche]

Joana

Maybe because phi played last night and bogut is still not sure he will play or not.I think this will be a game time decision.

[nick2060]

Well the over/under in that game really jumped from 193 to 195.5, but as far as sides go if bogut is out itd be tough to take the bucks. Bucks are good at home going 11-4 ATS and 11-3 on one days rest, compared to the 76ers 8-10 on the road and 4-6 on one days rest. Philly has also been allowing 100 points a game in there last 5 so bucks MIGHT be the play btu i personally wouldnt touch it if bogut doesnt play cause they havent shown an ability to replace him.

[ragiche]

Joana,

The bookies are very aware of this one.-7 is alot to cover,but if they have news about bogut will play,they will not move the line and will eat up all who betted phi,I smell this is also a trap game.So my suggestion is wait for a little longer.I have a feeling that the line will go down and that's the time i'm gonna make my move.Maybe around -5.5.Cause as you said it's already 80% are on phil,with this kind of percentage it is easy the line will go down by 2.

[Dexter]

Joana

Maybe because phi played last night and bogut is still not sure he will play or not.I think this will be a game time decision.

-MIL-C-Bogut-Doubtful

-florida is now up to 5 in some spots. no worries though, as 5 is really the same as 4 - gators still have to win by 6 - its all about the key numbers - right cocknocker?

[ragiche]

I'm already locked on okc/min under 50.5 1st qtr.

[nick2060]

Just so you guys know, card tonight looks like this so far:
OKC +6
These boys are playing better, reverse line movement is comin into play here. I like OKC on the road to keep it tight and Minnesota as favourites just seems like a position for me to take advantage of.
Denver -5.5
Melo out so im going with the old rule that calls for the nuggets to step up to make up for his absence especially with that home crowd behind him. Little bit of reverse line movement here as well.
UTAH -4?
Gonna watch the line a lit bit longer, probably wont play it til before gametime.
Portland -3.5
Probably wont play til a lil before gametime but Portland is solid at home and even with the pistons recent resurgence, they beat the clippers by one on the road, and i think whether or not they come to play on the road tonight is gonna be the deciding factor.

[coolmil]

Who cares about what Dragon has to say? He didn't even post his OWN pick, or i it just me who noticed that. He who is good at nothing else but criticizing others is sure to meet doom. Leave him be. When he opens up his own thread, I will be one of the 3 people who visit it and throw stones at him

CK-appreciate your info. cool

[ragiche]

Dexter,

Thanks for that info bro.

[shoebox]

Whats up with the RLM on pho/Ind, Det/Port tor/wash???
What am I missing need to research these....

[nick2060]

well i only have portland as slight favourites amongst the public so maybe theres just more money on detroit. Or rasheed mightve gotten upgraded to probable. Thats all i can think of that would affect the line like that. I also dont believe its RLM in phoenix game cause i got 54 percent of the public on phoenix so that could just be typical movement.

[Dana4U]

RLM Movement

Shoebox - the RLM only applies to the Hornets game and the Nets game. You need reverse line AND the majority of the betting action on the favored team, despite the point movement, to satisfy the "RLM theory". So as of now, the Hornets and the Nets both have 54% of the action, thus making the dawgs the picks ... at least according the RLM theory!

Whats up with the RLM on pho/Ind, Det/Port tor/wash???
What am I missing need to research these....

[cocknocker]

It's cool, shoe,

The Magic were routing them and they let up off the gas for some reason. The LeBrons won't do that. They will keep the pedal to the metal like AJ Foyt, cuzz. King James is as mad as a working man getting a boot put on his car on Friday afternoon. He definitely will make ESPN's top ten tonight

[cocknocker]

joanapoker,

No homes! I am not playing anything other than the PC Play and my small teaser which goes like

Detroit+7
Indiana+13.5

[shoebox]

Shoebox - the RLM only applies to the Hornets game and the Nets game. You need reverse line AND the majority of the betting action on the favored team, despite the point movement, to satisfy the "RLM theory". So as of now, the Hornets and the Nets both have 54% of the action, thus making the dawgs the picks ... at least according the RLM theory!

Gotcha I went to the wrong site that was showing all these movements went to sportsinsights and got it cleared up thanks

[BmoreBucco]

Guys and girls, I think Denver might just be a good play tonight. Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 against the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 against the Western Conference and 1-4 ATS in last 5 against the Nugs. Denver is probably giving a few less points due to the Melo injury and I see them as deep enough and big enough to still take care of Dwayne and the boys. Add to that the fact that this is Miami's first road trip out West and me likee the Nuggets.

So for me tonight:
Denver -5.5 standard
PC -13.5 (hook buy) BIG
Utah -3.5 (hook buy) standard

[peterpan19]

ragiche
I also like your utah and OKC pick, does anybody believe Min can win 4 in a row or 6 out of 7 games ?, Also OKC is a covering machine on the road this year, 12-4, where as Min is only 5-11 at home.
Some will say OKC normally gets DD spreads, but OKC owns Min 7-2 SU overall, 8-3 ATS in Min. I expect this one to be a very close game just like in the 2 early meetings this year (games decided by 2 and 3pts.)

Utah also has some strong trends for them as they are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU at home against NO, factor in that NO had to play last night against the Lakers and now travels to Utah, where Utah had a day rest.

Probably will only play OKC small, and for the Utah game i will wait to see how the PC game goes.
I also have a slight lean towards ATL, as they are 5-2 ATS and 6-1 SU against Orl

[BmoreBucco]

CK, any idea why my book would have a line for both the Detroit and Indiana games straight up, but when I look under parlays and teasers, those two are gone?

[nick2060]

taking off that Portland game, somethin seems fishy, and Rasheed is expected to play although Hamiltons doubtful. Still gotta wait and see whats up with the Utah line. REally wanna get on board with you guys on that pc play but i just dont feel like layin that many points tonight. Tommorrows a really small card so we really gotta hitem up tonight

[Dfjay9]

Question what do you guys think about the Lakers O/U at 226?

[therber2]

LeBron plays only when he feels like it. I'd bet on Cavs winning the 4th quarter definitely. Hahah Bob's cover the spread, and maybe win the game.

[gdaujat]

Hi Guys,
My picks tonight are:
Orlando v Atlanta over 191.0 Win (prediction 198-201)
Charlotte v Cleverland over 182.0 Win (prediction 190-193)
Houston v Boston over 184.5 Loss (prediction 196-199)
Detroit v Portland over 177 Loss (prediction 190-192)
Philly v Milwauke +7 Win
Toronto v Washington +2 Win
Indiana v Phoenix +9.5 Win
Miami v Denver -5.5 Win
La Lakers v Golden State +9.0 Win
Good luck today guys with your picks.

"Nobody Right, Nobody Wrong"
Greg
Melbourne, Australia

[Dexter]

booked plays-

cavs -14
bucks -7
thunder +6
jazz -4
pistons +3.5

[heyheyhey]

min and okc is a no play for me, wolves might have found rhythm with mchale now

[shoebox]

Hi Guys,
My picks tonight are:
Orlando v Atlanta over 191.0 (prediction 198-201)
Charlotte v Cleverland over 182.0 (prediction 190-193)
Houston v Boston over 184.5 (prediction 196-199)
Detroit v Portland over 177 (prediction 190-192)
Philly v Milwauke +7
Toronto v Washington +2
Indiana v Phoenix +9.5
Miami v Denver -5.5
La Lakers v Golden State +9.0
Good luck today guys with your picks.

"Nobody Right, Nobody Wrong"
Greg
Melbourne, Australia

WOW thats a lot of games for one night.....
GL

[peterpan19]

dexter
with you on CLE, Mil, OKC and Utah (last 3 only small)
also added Was and Mia as small wagers today

edit: I am set for today, lets get the PC money

[The_Kid]

In CK's words, there will be minute mixing tonight if Mike Dunleavy returns to make his season debut. Marquis Daniels is questionable with a groin injury, Travis Diener is dealing with a sore back, and T.J. Ford as an assortment of things bothering him. I see the total for the Pacers/Suns game at 226 now and I'd like to take the UNDER but after seeing Indiana's lack of defense against Denver, I don't know if I can. I'm thinking Shaq will dominate inside and Nash/Stoudemire will run pick and roll all night long. Pacers can put up a lot of points but with the return of Dunleavy, I don't know how their offense will work with him. Anybody have thoughts on this total?

[gdaujat]

WOW thats a lot of games for one night.....
GL

Yes I know lol.... I will be eating at the casino here in Melbourne or down the local soup kitchen, one or the other.
I play a few parlays with them and play all straight up.
Did okay yesterday but still learning the ropes of NBA.

Cheers
Greg

[Netprofit]

I would like to do this exercise for those games with no line posted yet - predicting the line and later compared with the posted lines:

Memphis vs. New Jersey
New Jersey -6 -4
Total 190 186.5

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Milwaukee -4 -7
Total 199 195.5

Indiana vs. Phoenix
Phoenix -10.5 -10
Total 212.5 226.5

New Orleans vs. Utah
Utah -3.5 -4
Total 195.5 192

LA Lakers vs. Golden State
LA Lakers -10 -9
Total 213 225.5

Detroit vs. Portland
Portland -2 -3.5
Total 186 177

Houston vs. Boston
Boston -8 -10.5
Total 186 184.5

Lakers cover when you dun exect them to; they will not cover when you expect them to - Golden State +9

Rockets recover after terrible streak - Houston +10.5 plus Houston +550