Leans for CK's Hangover 1/3/09

[Broncos9798]

Broncos9798,

I think that i can wager again now,

Good to have you back......it will be interesting to see what the line is....the Bulls are closing the gap early......TURNOVERS BULLs!

[nonsense48]

4-0 so far with 3 more to go.

[showtime2000]

anyone on the chargers +4?

[cocknocker]

With Minnesota on the 2nd leg of a back to back with travel involved, I am going to take the Bulls-6.5 2nd half

[Broncos9798]

Im with you CK.....Go Bulls

[Broncos9798]

Nope Showtime,

But I am on the Colts -4

Go Peyton!

I hope Phillip Rivers throws 3 interceptions this half.

[africanroller]

Im with you on that one also CK.

Just hoping the Colts can get the job done.

[The_Kid]

I'm going to take the 76ers +1 for the second half. The Spurs will not shoot 65% from the field the entire game.

[Dexter]

done with my bcs championship game preview..

About 2 months ago I was telling my friends that whatever you do this bowl season, be sure to bet oklahoma and florida – well, it aint so easy now. My early lean was on Oklahoma, but have now had second thoughts after watching ole miss take care of tech. First, lets look at some ats numbers. The sooners have gone over in 11 of 12 this year, while the gators have gone over in 8 of 12. both teams are 10-2 ats this year, while the sooners have obviously not been in the underdog role. Florida has been 10-2 ats as a favorite.

Florida is ranked 17th in the nation in total yards on offense while putting up 45ppg (ranked 3rd). They are ranked 62nd in passing and 11th in rushing. On defense (the key) they are ranked 8th in total yards and give up just 13ppg. Ranked 16th vs the pass and 15th vs the run.

Now the Sooners are ranked 3rd in the nation in total yards, but you must factor the easier defenses they get to play compared to florida. They rank 3rd in passing and 18th in rushing – score 54ppg - Best in the nation. Now, the deal breaker for me. On defense the sooners are ranked 63rd overall and 99th vs the pass/16th vs the run. They give up 25ppg, ranked 59th in the nation.

Is Oklahoma’s defense a little underrated based on the fact that they play in the high scoring Big 12? Perhaps – but to me, Florida’s defense is tons better, with speed all over the field. Safety Ahmad Black has 6 picks for 2TD’s this year, and he may be the x-factor in this game. While I expect both offenses to put up points, I think Florida makes that key play or 2 on defense to separate themselves. The way Ole Miss took care of Tech really helped continue to solidify my opinion on this game in a large way. The total will be pending a look at the weather that day – but these offenses should hit the high. It is a championship game, so I’m not going large on the total – but most certainly will on the Gators. Game is in Florida, and perhaps a slight home field advantage for the gators – if not the fans in the seats, the fact that the game is played in their home state. I normally don’t buy points, but will get this line to 2.5 for myself just in case. Florida has gotten 65% of the public bets and the line has moved up from 1.5 to 3.5. Sharp money has come in on the under with 60% of the public on the over, yet the total has dropped from 73 to 70. I will not follow the RLM here, and instead will look at it as value based on my feel for the teams ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Florida – 47
Oklahoma -37
*florida (large)
*over

[BigMoneyMan]

Took Philly second half. Going for the double up.

[BigMoneyMan]

i'm going to take the 76ers +1 for the second half. The spurs will not shoot 65% from the field the entire game.

correct!!!

[BigMoneyMan]

I liked the bulls also but it breaks a rule I have for second alf bets. Since I wone the first easy I will lay off. But as I said in the earlier post Minny likes to give up big leads in the second that s why i only play them in the 1st half

[cocknocker]

What we do know about Minnesota is that they always allow teams to catch up to them. The problem is a lack of talent. I had to make a small lay on the Bulls to get the job done, especially since they are perceived as "injured' in this game with bust Deng being out along with Captain Kirk and Drew Gooden. The line went up to Chicago-8 for the 2nd half, so obviously the linemaker fully expects that the Bulls will still win thi game. I am going to make my last play for the night on that belief.

[nonsense48]

DEX, if i'm not mistaken okla defensive line has fla offensive line outweighed by 70 lbs. per man. i should think you might consider that also. those okla boys are huge and strong and fast. TD INDY!!!!!!!!!

[Dexter]

classic manning - unreal

[Dexter]

DEX, if i'm not mistaken okla defensive line has fla offensive line outweighed by 70 lbs. per man. i should think you might consider that also. those okla boys are huge and strong and fast. TD INDY!!!!!!!!!

and here i was thinking i analyzed every aspect of the game

its all good though - any pressure they get breaking the line will only force tebow to be on the run - which is his game..

[MVFC182]

Anyone got any leans on the New Mexico (+5.5) vs UNLV (-5.5)?
I just wanna put on a small wager to give me something to do

[nonsense48]

DEX, i enjoyed your post. it shows you're doing your homework as a good gambler should. i commend you.

[cocknocker]

I don't know, Dexter... I haven't completed my research for that game, but I think that it will be a squeaker. I think that what troubles me about this game is that Oklahoma responds so well to being scored on. They have an uncanny knack of eating up yards in chunks. I am thinking of taking them +1.5, but it's not set in stone yet. At some point during that game, the Sooners will take the lead. How Florida responds to that is to be seen. they have not played from behind much this season, and if i am correct, the only game when they had to play from behind was the Mississippi game. After that, they pretty much ran the table blowing teams out. Oklahoma presents a whole lot of problems for them offensively, and defensively tey have faced some of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Florida has not had to face that many great quarterbacks, matter of fact, I know for a fact that they have played NO good quarterbacks. So their d-backs are VERY untested. I mean if you look at their schedule, you will see that they have not faced a college team with a household name quarterback on it. Oklahoma has faced Chase Daniel, Reesing, Colt McCoy, Zach Robinson, Tony Pike, Graham (Texas Tech), Ganz (Nebraska). I don't feel that Tebow's skill set is much better than any of those quarterbacks, and that would be apparent with his draft status if he were to come out this year, which would be a disaster, and land him on special teams in the NFL covering kickoffs. I just feel that Oklahoma has playedMANY more big games than Florida has against better offensive teams...

[Broncos9798]

There is value in the Hornets -3 second half. I am mainly doing it to hedge my substantial Nuggets bet.. Hopefully I hit both!

[africanroller]

Didnt you guys learn your lesson betting Alabama over the Gators? This will be the healthiest the Gators have been all season. Dont over analyze this game, Florida will be National Champions and it wont be by 3 points or less.

[Freddy]

I would try under99.5 . they did already much so far, scoring with good stats and difference is more than 14 pts which might stay in last 5min and reserves gonna take the court alone

[Dexter]

unreal - the one place they would miss LT would be in the redzone (is nose for the endzone/hands etc)....god dammit sproles...

[nonsense48]

DEX, i haven't decided on that game yet either. when i do it won't be a big wager unless something sways me between now and then. as CK stated okla has had a far tougher schedule. it is basically a home game for fla. but i feel the speed and size of okla will nulify that. if tebow can steer clear of the offensive line he has a great chance but that's a big "IF". we shall soon see. GOOD LUCK in whatever way you decide to go. i'll let you know which way i go when i do go.

[Dexter]

squeaker perhaps - which is why i will be getting under the key number to 2.5......

while i agree that oklahoma has clearly been seasoned vs much better qb's, the gators have been equally impressive on offense vs much better defenses. tebow may be on special teams next year, but this is the collegiate level, and his running abilities will still be a huge factor in this game.

[nonsense48]

oops

[AdaBarber]

I think that Florida sees a good diet of strong defenses week in and week out. That's the premium in the SEC. So Florida does try to blow you out but they start every game with knowing how to score on your defense. Because you're not going to make enough big plays to stay close. At some point in time they will pull away because this is the toughest defense Oklahoma has seen all year. Period. Forget Florida's offense. They know what they're gonna do. They play in the SEC against defenses every week.

Now Oklahoma plays every game trying to outscore whoever. That's what they do. But against what defenses? Please somebody tell me that Oklahoma would have scored 65 in five straight in the SEC. Not happening. Florida's defense is better than the rankings.

I pretty much have a rule. If I can't bet with the SEC I don't bet at all. South Carolina doesn't count. It's my alma mater and I could predict every game they play.

Florida's speed is incredible. By the time you see the hole opening up they are through it. Only worry I have is their secondary. They are young. But Urban has an excellent coaching staff and I expect them to make adjustments.

[nonsense48]

need ot in s.a.

[Dexter]

need ot in s.a.

who did you play? i forget and dont feel like sifting thru the posts

[nonsense48]

4-1 with 2 to go

[nonsense48]

who did you play? i forget and dont feel like sifting thru the posts

s.a....a loser. for the day i played:uconn ari indy char hou den s.a.

[Dexter]

hornets aint done - down 12 going into the 4th.

[maddogmadden86]

another great job today CK thank you and the missus for the extra fat pockets, i wish i didnt work weekend nights so i could shoot the shit with you boys but what can you do cant wait to start tomorrow

[nonsense48]

hornets aint done - down 12 going into the 4th.

are you on n.o.?

[maddogmadden86]

hey ck i took your minny pick cause i was lokoing at it as soon as you posted and just took the spread should have hit that moneyline homie for some extra cheddar too but oh well thats what i get for not being able to comiserate during the day