Question about series prices (OKC, NYK)

[Celts#34-9-5]

Hey everyone,

First post here.. I like both OKC and NYK to both win their respective series, both currently being down 2-1. I have a dilemma that hopefully somebody with knowledge on probable series prices can help me out with. Right now, 5Dimes has the two at +265 and +210. I want to dutch the two for 67% return on my money. My $500 will return $338 if either of the two win the series. Both don't have to win, only one.

My question is this: I believe that only one of these two teams will probably win game 4 away. Does anyone have any idea what the series prices might be if they were to return home down 1-3 as opposed to tied at 2-2? If I have a good idea on that, there may be a better dutch opportunity before game 5. Of course, if both win game 4, then my opportunity is screwed.

Thanks for any possible help!

[TheMLBKing]

save your money.

[Celts#34-9-5]

Thanks for the advice, your opinion is appreciated. The thread wasn't asking if people thought Knicks or Thunder would lose though, I believe there's a good chance one will win. I'm already set on dutching this for a cool 67% or possibly more if someone can give me some help relating to my question. Thanks boss.

[Celts#34-9-5]

Ok cool, the Warriors-Spurs game is over so I know where my bankroll sits. Here's the dutch, deciding to jump on it early in the hopes of both teams possibly winning game 4 and destroying my opportunity later.

Knicks (Series Price +210) $281 to win $590
Thunder (Series Price +265) $239 to win $633

P/L:
If one team wins their series: +$351
If both teams win: +$1223
If both teams lose: -$520

Good luck to everyone this second round!

[Crate Mayne]

Like he said above, "save your money"... OKC is the new Cleveland Cavs from the Lebron years, except Durant disappears for stretches of time and doesn't make the team around him better. It's just 1 superstar and 4 scrubs. Knicks are my squad, but they have been straight doo-doo for like 5 games in a row.

Out of the two, Knicks probably have better chance to come back and win the series, but even that I'm not putting money on because I've seen how terrible they've played... NBA is the worst sport to bet on.

If they return home losing 3-1, you really gonna bet on them to win it anyways?

[terpkeg]

Like he said above, "save your money"... OKC is the new Cleveland Cavs from the Lebron years, except Durant disappears for stretches of time and doesn't make the team around him better. It's just 1 superstar and 4 scrubs. Knicks are my squad, but they have been straight doo-doo for like 5 games in a row.

Out of the two, Knicks probably have better chance to come back and win the series, but even that I'm not putting money on because I've seen how terrible they've played... NBA is the worst sport to bet on.

If they return home losing 3-1, you really gonna bet on them to win it anyways?

So what you're saying is that the NBA is the best sport to bet on because it is so easy. Where else can you get virtual locks for -265, -215???

[Crate Mayne]

So what you're saying is that the NBA is the best sport to bet on because it is so easy. Where else can you get virtual locks for -265, -215???

NBA is a literal crapshoot guess every night, and usually requires fading your own instincts to win, and luck rather than smarts....That doesn't come across as being, "the best sport to bet" to me.

And pretty sure my bankroll would be bigger during these playoffs if a -ML was a "virtual lock"


And to the OP, you might as bet on if the round goes 6 or 7 games... + odds on them without needing to predict who Stern is backing.

[Celts#34-9-5]

Like he said above, "save your money"... OKC is the new Cleveland Cavs from the Lebron years, except Durant disappears for stretches of time and doesn't make the team around him better. It's just 1 superstar and 4 scrubs. Knicks are my squad, but they have been straight doo-doo for like 5 games in a row.

Out of the two, Knicks probably have better chance to come back and win the series, but even that I'm not putting money on because I've seen how terrible they've played... NBA is the worst sport to bet on.

If they return home losing 3-1, you really gonna bet on them to win it anyways?

Thanks for the input, I like that your analysis. I'm in total agreement that both the Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers are better than their opponents, Indy by only a small margin though. I've watched every game this postseason this far and realize this. Here's the thing: Star power shines really bright in the postseason when it matters. I find it incredibly hard to believe that both Carmelo Anthony AND Kevin Durant will get knocked out of the second round. One of the two will advance by carrying their team on his back, possibly both. JR Smith just needs to tone down on all the iso plays. Lebron WILL play against a superstar this postseason, I really believe that.

As for the question about betting them being down 3-1, that's really out of my control at this point as I've already placed my bets as stated above. I just have to hope for the best at this point.

I believe it's good value to lay 5 units at this point, if I don't hit I won't lose any sleep over it. I've been doing pretty decent this postseason so far anyway. Thanks again for the input Crate.

[Celts#34-9-5]

NBA is a literal crapshoot guess every night, and usually requires fading your own instincts to win, and luck rather than smarts....That doesn't come across as being, "the best sport to bet" to me.

And pretty sure my bankroll would be bigger during these playoffs if a -ML was a "virtual lock"


And to the OP, you might as bet on if the round goes 6 or 7 games... + odds on them without needing to predict who Stern is backing.

I actually didn't even think about doing something like this, I'll look into to it to see the potential returns. Thanks.

[Romerowned]

Most likely both lose. Good luck though. I think OKC has the better value. I feel like Indiana has been underrated at every point this series.

[Celts#34-9-5]

OK so I definitely made a mistake betting before game 4 and not waiting until after for these two series, as both went against me and now the series prices are way better. Everyone who told me it was a bad move was right; I was wrong. Anyways, I'm adding Golden State series price to this dutch so now it's a 3 team with even pay out at if any of the 3 win. Here's the breakdown:

NYK series: +210 (281 to win 590)
OKC series: +265 (239 to win 633)
GS series: +605 (124 to win 750)

Total Risk: 645
Profit if 1 series wins: 228

Let's go OKC tonight!

[Crate Mayne]

Spurs got that on lock man, at this point only OKC really has a chance, and that's a slim unlikely one at best. And it hurts me to say that seeing how it's my Knicks I'm counting out.

[Celts#34-9-5]

Well, looking at that view I hope you're at least right about OKC, but Memphis is ridiculously tough. OKC might not even get past tonight haha. Knicks look terrible, couldn't believe how bad they were last game. I'll just be hoping one of these underdogs can pull it off!

[TheMLBKing]

save your money.

^^^sharp

[Celts#34-9-5]

Haha I wish I was sharp and could predict the future too...2 series aren't over yet though..

Let's go Knicks and Warriors!

Honestly I think Warriors have a better shot tonight than the Knicks, but we'll see. Good luck with your plays MLB.