Leans for Wednesday 12/31/08

[cocknocker]

Well, it's the last day of 2008. What do you know..It's all over ladies and gentlemen. So what are we gonna do? We're gonna send out the old year with a bang!

Not too much of a long write up for this one. The Rockets are 5-0 straight up and ats playing at home against the Bucks, who pulled off the upset of the year last night against the bewildered Spurs. But this is the famed Texas triangle trip, and no team comes out of it unscathed. So I'll take the chalk in this one as Houston is coming off of a home upset loss in their last home game to the much improved Wizards. Why not? The Bucks are the ones doing a back to back.

Houston-7.5 (buying a point to get under the key number) Heavy

I already played Houston so that is an official play

The Denver Nuggets get the luxury of facing the Raptors in thier first home game after a long 6 game west coast road trip. The Raptors only get one days' rest in between this long trip to tie up loose ends at home. Denver could be less concerned after getting dusted off in Atlanta in their last game. The Raptors are horrible to be sure, and this is a tough situation for them to get the win. The Nuggets have 3 out of their last 4 games in Canada. I look for more of the same in this matchup.

Denver-3 (projected)

And now for the ugly side of wagering. I have to keep pounding the Clippers while they are down and in turmoil. The Sixers come into town on tonight hell bent on improving their record and the Clippers are just in the way. the Sixers are 4-1 ats in games in LA against the Clippers and should be favored in this game with no problems. The Clippers are doin a back to back, and they are horrible at that and everything else.

Sixers-2 (buying a point to get back onto the nearest key)


There they are boys and girls. Let's see what ya got!

[W0lfy]

CK, I been thinking about that Sixers game. All fingers point to the Sixers (Baron Davis looked hurt at the end of the kings game, and working in a hard one a night before), but I feel Dunlevy going to pull this one out the butt just to get at Elton Brand.

[nonsense48]

i'll study and let you know my thoughts tomorrow a.m. time to rest my head as the a.m. comes early in the eastern time zone. good nite and happy new year.

[The_Kid]

CK, I'm looking at the early game between Orlando/Chicago. I know the Bulls are tough at home but the Magic are just as good on the road. I think the Magic will bounce back from their disappointing performance against the Pistons the other night. The Bulls will be missing Luol Deng and possibly Drew Gooden so they'll be a little short handed. I really don't see anyone slowing down Dwight. Aaron Gray, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah will be scored upon at will. Also, I don't see the Bulls having enough firepower to keep up with the sweet shooting of the Magic. Rose/Gordon will get their points but outside of them (maybe Hughes), I don't see anyone else stepping up. IMO, Nelson, Lewis, Turkoglu, and Howard will be too much for the Baby Bulls tomorrow.

[BmoreBucco]

Before I even look at tomorrow, have to tell you I saw my first cashed ticket due to the key number approach. Bought Sac down a point to -1.5, and boom goes the dynamite! Awesome.

Thjat said, I've been in tune here for a few months and I've seen the first innings run scenario alluded to many times. Any chance I can get a quick summarry of your strategy?

Now, I see Santa Clara is trying to play ball for your parlay, and I have your back with Buffalo because I'm riding that train, so let's cash some tickets!

Lastly, please don't waste any more breath on sam_whatever. Loser.

[NBA Hero]

wolfy,
elton is ou. the sixers is trying to run as much as possible, letting the young guys play while brand is out. their playing small ball giving williams, young lots of playing time.

[BmoreBucco]

Anybody have any leans on early bowl games? My instincts tell me Houston and Oregon State, but research must be done.

[KTKameleon]

First Time here, some plays for 12/31

Been reading a lot of the forums for the past week or so, so I thought I'd try giving some input and seeing how I do and seeing what people thought, so as for the early lines this is what i have so far.

Magic -6.5 (They've been good on the road and they've pretty much done well for me so far this year)

Phi -3 (Clips are really banged up and they are playing a back to back)

Hou -8.5 (I saw the early post about the Rockets ats against the Bucks, and the Bucks are on a back to back and 3 of their starters played 40+ minutes against SA)

Hou/Mil UNDER 189 (Both Teams seem to play good D so this seems like a good bet)

Lemme know what you guys think of these!

KT

[W0lfy]

I know Brand is out. I meant his team, not just him on the floor.

[heyheyhey]

i've been watching your posts and playing along with you for a few weeks now and decided i had to make a uname when i played the college basketball parlay of the day in your tuesday post and it hit, congrats bro, youre a beast. my first 5 pick thanks to you! love you bro

[wangichu]

detroit beat the nets by 23, 18, and 19 last year and has revenge to work with. Add to that they have been playing some quality ball of late, now that the public has soured on them from earlier. I think AI is just hard to get used to as he is so different from chauncey, but they seem like they may be gelling, winning with D first and then enough scoring. I am banking on the pistons regulating now that the public is catching on to their early season struggles. They won't finish this season without making a covering run at some point and the way they've been playing, added to revenge against a team they normally dominate, i have to like their chances

DET 1st half
DET game

love houston, but there's not much more to say than what has already been said. The public will hit the bucks after that game last night, but coming off back to back with an upset under their belt, they now have to take on a team with a center who outsizes bogut and an all around cast that is just better. I think that if the bucks were going to cover this game the spread wouldn't have dropped at 8.5, which i think was meant to get bets on the bucks and off the rockets with the hook needing to be bought off to get the rockets to that key digit.

HOU -7.5 (i'll wait, that upset last night should score the bucks some public based movement)

also looking at OKC... they have played the warriors tough in the past especially at home, and already lost to them at home earlier this year. They have the kind of team that can hang with if not upset the newer less dominant warriors and here is a perfect time for them to do it, their last home game against the warriors this year.

OKC +2.5

[lolisaiahlol]

CK you have to help me out, i need to win the money back that i bet on boston. do you have a good parlay for us. please say yes!

[danrman]

the shots that qb from oklahoma st. was taken from oregon were brutal.. the over didnt hit but the 1/2 time over did big time.. and ck did you see that stat espn put up on the screen as the game went to the 1/2.. it was a stat about ok.st. outscoring their opponents in the 2nd half.. its what i call the sucker stat.. they throw it up so the 1/2 time bettors will bet a certain way.. when i saw it i loaded up on the ducks for my biggest bet of the day.. EVERYONE WATCH FOR THIS IN THE FUTURE.. ITS EASY MONEY.. pay attention to whats being said by the announcers and whats being put on the screen as the game goes to 1/2 time.. its valuable and always goes the opposite way of what they are pushing if ya dig.. this angle has been a huge winner for me over the years

[danrman]

i like orlando-6 1/2 in nba.. early start
gonna give houston-3 1/2 in cfb a shot small.. thats it so far

[Spoon]

Guys I just wanted to pop in and ask a question before I pass out for the night - well, morning. For 8 days straight I was on a serious tear raking in money hand over fist. However, the last 5 days my pathetic final cards resulted in something that looked like this... 1-4, 2-4, 3-2, 2-2, and 2-5 records. Now, I'll admit I have not been able to spend much time analyzing games the past week due to some extra partying and what not, but this has been a terrible run. I'm taking a beating at every angle. So, I was wondering if anyone else had been getting crushed by the books over the last 5 days or is just me. NBA in particular appears to be tearing me up big time. Sorry to vent, but it's been 5 days now without seeing a nice return like I did the first 3 weeks of the month.

GL today ladies and gents. Really, I mean that, GL. I sure will need it.

[indeed]

I've had a rough week, too, Spoon

[cocknocker]

Alright I have it... College Basketball Parlay of the Day

Memphis-17
LSU-15.5
St.Joes-12
Utah+6.5 (bought a hook)

I personally put up $50.00 on it

[cocknocker]

College Football


Kansas-9
LSU+4

[NBA Hero]

wolfy,
i mean elton might not even be on the trip to staples. dunleavy have to many probs with their roster and baron davis rumors to deal with the sixers.
gonna ride on your guys pick on phillie. they have to win now, already 0-2 on their road trip, and three more remaining. they wont stand a chance on dallas and SA.

[peterpan19]

ck
great job on cbb parlays again

I have to follow you again, 3rd time is golden
btw pinny has hou -8.5 at +money, so now would bethe best time to buy the point
also orl -6.5 at +money, buy the hook here now too, it probably wot get any better

edit:
hou -8 at pinny now, is the injury really so bad or is just comingthe bucks money in right now ?

[peterpan19]

Shane Battier is out, but Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest are expected to play.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/6188020.html

[Freddy]

I never understood what Battier can do on courts. I see him as a typical player and not even a star. Strange to see so many 'lights' over him. TMAC continue to be pathetic, Scola doesnt help. Alston shooting like 3-14 in every game, I see that Ming fighting alone. Numbers some day can change but I don't know if that would be today. Actually the roster still superb.

[Inv1ctus]

Battier is not a star because he's not an offensive player, but what he does on courts is shutting people down. Houston has a very talented team but injuries are keeping them down most of the time. Imho the best thing that could happen for them would be the trade of T-Mac+Alston for some reliable shooting guard who isn't hurt all the time.

[zackattack]

CK, sorry about the bashing of pronks picks but nothing annoys me more then when somebody posts "these are strong picks" and doesn't offer any write up and then each game loses big. why is he even posting college picks in your nba thread?
i am now 11-6 in bowl picks.......each game bet the same........here are todays
hou -4
pitt +2
bc -3
minn +9
gtech -4

[Dexter]

Air Force is 4-2ats on the road this year, while houston is 1-5ats on the road. airforce has already beaten houston this year as a road dog outright, and i'll take the pts again.

*air force*
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not sure that oregon st is happy to be here - they had a chance to play in the rose bowl but got drilled by oregon at home in their final game. pitt has better away numbers avg'ing 32ppg and giving up 22 - while oregon st puts up 26 and gives up 25. Like the way Pitt rolls into this game with back to back wins, including one over a bowl winner in W.Virg.

*Pitt*
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bc is on an 8 game bowl winning streak, and i like them to make it 9 today. they are simply the better/hotter team than vandy. vandy is stumbling into this game having lost (su and ats) 4 of 5, while bc has won (su and ats) 4 of 5. here is why i really like this game. bc has beaten maryland, florida st, and ndame this year - all bowl winners.

*boston college* (large)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
minny avg's 28ppg on the road and gives up 22. kansas puts up 35ppg on gives up 39 away from home. score averages out to a 63 which would push this game over the total. weather conditions will be ideal for a lot of points.

*over kansas*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
though this game is essentially a home game for ga tech, they were 4-1 ats away from home this year. while lsu has had great bowl success the last few years, this is not the same team. they have dropped 6 in a row ats, and 4 of 5 su. ga tech has won both su and ats 3 of its last 4. lsu has was 0-2 su and ats as a dog this year, while tech was 3-0 as a single digit favorite. the trends all point to tech for me.

*ga. tech* (large)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
first game back after a long 6 game west coast trip for the raptors - always a solid fade angle. factor in the raptors poor home ats (3-10) mark this year with the nuggets 9 pt win in toronto last year - and im on denver. i have my line set at a pk.

*nuggets*

[Dexter]

nice - had a feeling you would be on the nuggets....

[Gnutti]

Denver Nuggets -1

[peterpan19]

early plays
hous -4, just two words: weather, revenge
Orl -5.5 coming of a bad loss they will destroy chi at home, chi players are pretty banged up, have to ride orl again here

[Dexter]

Alright I have it... College Basketball Parlay of the Day

Memphis-17
LSU-15.5
St.Joes-12
Utah+6.5 (bought a hook)

I personally put up $50.00 on it

damn - did you really hit a 5 team parlay last night - i didnt think college hoops was your sport. nicely done sir.

[maddogmadden86]

ck you are one the three i liked last night as well i'm locking them in now so i can enjoy my new years festivities, also adding orlando and the under, cant take detroit over the nets wang my nets play different ball away and with AI who the hell knows what will happen

[Dexter]

final day plays-

air force +4
pitt +1
bc -3.5
over kansas 59

[nonsense48]

i'm locked in on orl-6 det-6 dime each good luck all

[nonsense48]

i'm leaving the hou-af game alone. too close to call for me so i'll pass. i like nba denver later and i'm flippin' and going with ck on nba hou later me thinks

[chipper8888]

Happy new year boys
Gonna piggy back CK on the Rockets tonight but thats about it for me
GL to all

[africanroller]

Pitt and BC

That it for me as I missed Houston being out.