Nuggets/Warriors series price

Seto · 04-30-13, 03:58 PM

Clippers/Grizz also

-190/+172 pinny
-172/+162 5dimes

at least this lean suits me...

seriously though, are 5dimes asleep at the wheel or something? Pinny actually had similar series prices to the ones 5dimes has now yesterday but they've moved at 5dimes don't seem to care

Speedy88 · 04-30-13, 04:04 PM

Wouldn't be too worried. Books have been way off on this series the entire way. Denver has been getting way overvalued on the series price, and on the spreads. Thought it was ridiculous when Warriors were +260 headed into game 3. Should have been +150 at most in my opinion.

Seto · 04-30-13, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Wouldn't be too worried. Books have been way off on this series the entire way. Denver has been getting way overvalued on the series price, and on the spreads. Thought it was ridiculous when Warriors were +260 headed into game 3. Should have been +150 at most in my opinion.

I agree books have been way off. GS is 4-0 ATS in this series and I have bet them basically every game. Series prices have been off too.

I think the series price change at pinny is because they moved from 7.5 to 8, and the Clips/Griz one is because they moved from 5 to 5.5, but 5dimes don't seem to adapt their series prices. I think they're more the ones being asleep than Pinny having a lean.

I am going to have to exercise self-control not to hedge my Warriors series bet at +235 when pinny is at +187 though. I know I should let it ride deep down but I have 7x to win 19.5x on Warriors series so it is tempting just to toss 3 units on Denver to at least not lose anything if they somehow come back.

Have no idea how the hell they win game 6 at Oracle though. You don't win road playoff games with no big time guy, let alone in that kind of atmosphere. Lakers game 5 last year was a total fluke.

Seto · 04-30-13, 04:20 PM

Fuk it I'm riding it out. I try to teach myself only to hedge if both sides of the hedge are +ev, which is theoretically the right way to go. I don't think Denver has any value even at +235. I would be surprised if their live line didn't reach that in game 6 at some point if nothing else.

What I could do is play 2150/1000 on GS to pinny and 1000/2350 on Denver at 5dimes, which in a way is 0 to win 200 on Denver. Only problem is having 3 grand locked up for a couple days.

Seto · 04-30-13, 04:35 PM

Back up to -230/+202 at pinny. Feel better. Go dubs close this shit out!