Is Home Court Really Worth That Many Pts?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

game 1 Mia is at (-13) - they beat Mil by 23

game 2 Mia is at (-14) - they beat Mil by 12

game 3 Mia is at (-8) - is home court really worth 5-6 pts to a team who has a losing home court ATS record 16-25. also Mia is 6-3 as a 7.5 fav and 3-3 as a 8 pt fav. Mia is 4-0 following a ATS loss Mil is 0-5 at home vs a road team of greater than .600, I know these are not playoff trends but they still hold some meaning. i expected this line to be around 10-12. are the books being to easy on Mia here or are they doing a good job of leading me on the thought path they want me on? I need some input on this one.

[Sport_Fish]

I dont think books are saying much....this is a fairly standard swing in spreads when switching from home to away.

And those trends don't mean much in playoffs, esp. such a small sample. So tough one to call IMO. I def. think Miami wins but don't know if Bucks can keep within 8. The main problem is this team can play well all game and in the last QTR or even the last few mins of the game, Bucks can have a meltdown and Miami just pulls away in the blink of an eye. Sharp line.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Bucks have to know they really have no chance of winning this series. best they can do is maybe give their home fans a win, i dont see that happening tho. so this one could be a close game. on the other hand if im Mia i want to be done with the Bucks in 4, giving my players the maximum amount of rest before the next series. winning this game is crucial in getting the series done in 4 imo, so i could see them come out the strongest here and blow them out by 30. with the line already going from (-7.5) to -8 at (-105) on my book i think im gonna go ahead and hop on it at reduced juice. would not be surprised if it hits 9-10 by game time.

ps. im fade material so far this playoffs

[LOL]

1 time bches.... cmon!!

[sniflar]

I dont think books are saying much....this is a fairly standard swing in spreads when switching from home to away.

And those trends don't mean much in playoffs, esp. such a small sample. So tough one to call IMO. I def. think Miami wins but don't know if Bucks can keep within 8. The main problem is this team can play well all game and in the last QTR or even the last few mins of the game, Bucks can have a meltdown and Miami just pulls away in the blink of an eye. Sharp line.

So we should take Miami 2H?

[Sport_Fish]

So we should take Miami 2H?

Well best case would be to hope Bucks take a decent lead into the half and it would obv. set up a nice play on Miami 2H. Other than that, I still think its a tough call with the +8 spread. Too hard to take a side on that.

[k13]

Knicks -7.5, now +3 away

10 point swing....

Yes it is worth that much in the playoffs plus game 3 is basically elimination game if you are down 2-0.

Plus the games are fixed so books know how to adjust.

[k13]

So then you get retarded threads like this...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/2314572-why-clips-nets-underdogs-thursdays-games.html

[GoBlue77]

I wouldnt lay +7.5 in the road w Miami against anyone in these playoffs

[ItsMeMrMattE]

1 time bches.... cmon!!

winner! good hit. read this game right.