I am new to the forum and new to NBA betting as well. I have a developed a very basic model for predicting points scored for each team as well as the game total. I have only been doing this for not quite a full month, just 160 games. The lines that I have bet are hitting right at 50%. But I noticed that of the 480 projections only 98 have been over the line and 20 more have been just under the line by a couple tenths of a point or less. Of these 118 situations the over has hit 73 times and lost 45 times (62%). Obviously as a whole my model is flawed. But is it possible that since what I'm doing heavily favors the under, when it does predict the over can I continue to win at anywhere near this rate?
-
-
ask the think tank, but don't call it a system. they don't deal in systems. i don't think i would call this a system anyway because it sounds like you are projecting a score and then betting based on that, and a system usually doesn't really take the line or what the total is into consideration when coming up with the plays.Comment