Today public will get murdered. Play bulls, under, spurs, and cincii

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  • ashulga
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-16-12
    • 247

    #1
    Today public will get murdered. Play bulls, under, spurs, and cincii
    Yesterday I was 3/4 with toronto and under, under on brooklyn and over on houston. Only one that missed was Toronto and it was my fault, I approached it like an amateur. When I saw the line move from -1.5 toronto to -1 memphis that's automatic play on memphis. Only time it's not is if there are injuries that made the line move like that. So I can only blame myself for that. Anyways moving on

    Today I like bulls and under, We should get anywhere +3.5 to +4, it will be a defensive game and miami will get pounded on the glass and pushed around inside. My reasoning for this is not that mia is playing b2b, its more that the comeback Miami had to stage to win and that huge 40 point quarter takes a lot out of you (except Lebron). Remember that huge comeback Portland had on Mia couple of weeks ago and even though they still lost at the end, the next game they went out and scored in the 60's next day against not very good NO team. They had nothing left. Also Mia best bench player Ray Allen did play starter minutes yest with 30 so he will surely be feeling it today. So I expect bulls to push them around and grind out a W today and Mia will not be in the shape to go up and down after yesterdays draining comeback. As always Public being heavily on Mia and Over only helps us.

    SA-it will be awfully tough to beat Popovich coached team 3 times in the row and SA problems have been offense against clippers not defense, and having his old team rested and a week to prepare, they will come out and execute in this game. I like them to cover +3.5, maybe we can even get 4. Again public is all over Clippers on this one but not gonna happen

    Finally Cincii- classic reverse line movement, everyone is on uconn and line moves in favor of Cincii. Also highest wagered bball game for college yesterday was Kansas and it hit, today its UCONN and you will almost never take 2 in a row with vegas when it comes to highest wagered games in same sport on b2b days (trust me thats one of the angles I follow most)

    So todays top 3 public plays $$ wise are Mia, Clippers, Uconn so far in that order. I see all 3 going the other way.
    This card Will NOT lose trust me. As always Bol and never follow anyone, however use others input to help you with making the best decision for YOU as it's your $.
  • ashulga
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-16-12
    • 247

    #2
    Forgot to add, read that Mia didn't arrive in Chicago until 3 AM last night. Might be nothing for lebron, but its way past Allens, Bosh's, Millers, Lewis, bed time so don't expect much from Bosch, and the bench.
    Comment
    • JayOne
      SBR High Roller
      • 02-18-13
      • 227

      #3
      Love the analysis. I agree with everything except spurs.
      Comment
      • ashulga
        SBR High Roller
        • 07-16-12
        • 247

        #4
        We will see. Good thing is that we don't have to make that play till late. But spurs swept this exact team 4-0 in playoffs last year, I don't see how best coach in bball don't make necessary adjustments and avoid regular season sweep against clippers. Also I believe coaching the all start game and getting a practice or two with clippers best players will serve as learning lesson on how to better attack and defend Paul and griffin.
        Comment
        • EVPlus
          SBR MVP
          • 04-07-12
          • 1111

          #5
          How do you know yesterday's Kansas game had the most money coming in?

          I am leaning Spurs tonight and do agree Clips are the public play.
          Comment
          • R.P. McMurphy
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 06-15-12
            • 9654

            #6
            Agree Spurs look like the play here we saw last night in Houston how hard it is to get 3 in a row and Thunder/Rockets is a bigger mismatch than tonights game. How to attack Griffin lol... guy has one move on the baseline and trails in transition for follow ups and monster dunks. Dude is just an over-rated high light reel!
            Comment
            • ashulga
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-16-12
              • 247

              #7
              Originally posted by EVPlus
              How do you know yesterday's Kansas game had the most money coming in?

              I am leaning Spurs tonight and do agree Clips are the public play.
              Vegasinsider list top 10 $$ wagers daily. Yesterday it was okc and celtics in nba and Kansas in college. My rule is regardless of how much I like the play if its biggest public fav on the day I just stay away or go other way. Our research will never beat their research, might as well surrender and play the other side. I haven't tracked it but from what I noticed if u just blindly go opposite of top public play of the day you will go 4-3 most weeks if not better.
              Comment
              • Jgjk
                SBR Sharp
                • 02-21-13
                • 299

                #8
                Originally posted by ashulga
                We will see. Good thing is that we don't have to make that play till late. But spurs swept this exact team 4-0 in playoffs last year, I don't see how best coach in bball don't make necessary adjustments and avoid regular season sweep against clippers. Also I believe coaching the all start game and getting a practice or two with clippers best players will serve as learning lesson on how to better attack and defend Paul and griffin.

                i think the clips will dominate today, tnt game, night game, at home, rested, and they had a few bad losses last week, i think they are ready today
                Comment
                • R.P. McMurphy
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 06-15-12
                  • 9654

                  #9
                  Few bad losses last week Flop city actually finished strong last couple games of road trip and played a game or 2 in L.A. before the break and have been winning since getting healthy.
                  Comment
                  • EVPlus
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-07-12
                    • 1111

                    #10
                    Originally posted by ashulga
                    Vegasinsider list top 10 $$ wagers daily. Yesterday it was okc and celtics in nba and Kansas in college. My rule is regardless of how much I like the play if its biggest public fav on the day I just stay away or go other way. Our research will never beat their research, might as well surrender and play the other side. I haven't tracked it but from what I noticed if u just blindly go opposite of top public play of the day you will go 4-3 most weeks if not better.
                    Thanks for the response and bol with your plays tonight.

                    I'll look for an edge in college hoops and nhl tonight. No nba action for me on a small card.
                    Comment
                    • Jgjk
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 02-21-13
                      • 299

                      #11
                      Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                      Few bad losses last week Flop city actually finished strong last couple games of road trip and played a game or 2 in L.A. before the break and have been winning since getting healthy.

                      meant they didnt cover
                      Comment
                      • ashulga
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 07-16-12
                        • 247

                        #12
                        Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                        Agree Spurs look like the play here we saw last night in Houston how hard it is to get 3 in a row and Thunder/Rockets is a bigger mismatch than tonights game. How to attack Griffin lol... guy has one move on the baseline and trails in transition for follow ups and monster dunks. Dude is just an over-rated high light reel!
                        Spurs are just regular season machine. Remember when Duncan, Parker, ginobli and Jackson I believe sat out in Mia and they still almost won, Or bulls in Chicago??? That's the deepest team in the nba and unless they are way off from a 3 today I think they win this game. And you know popovich will make Jordan and griffin shoot ft s a ton and prove they can make them. He will intentionally foul more than anyone. That's why I can't play over/under this game
                        Comment
                        • winslow9675
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 04-27-12
                          • 145

                          #13
                          I could not agree more.. Fade the Public to in the NBA..
                          Comment
                          • layout4payout
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 01-14-13
                            • 66

                            #14
                            i'm with ya on the spurs. i took heat ml though. you think bulls win straight up?
                            Comment
                            • ashulga
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 07-16-12
                              • 247

                              #15
                              I would never lay money line in any game unless you parlay. It's losing proposition in my opinion. To lay money line at 3 to 3.5 you had to buy 3-3.5 Pts. Would you not rather take bulls +7 at home then? I would all day especially knowing they always play close. So I guess my point is I would never by Pts, maybe hook that's it and yes I can see bulls winning. Bulls always get fired up for heat, and heat only seem to get fired up for okc. I guess they just don't view them as a threat.
                              Comment
                              • ashulga
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 07-16-12
                                • 247

                                #16
                                Going back to last year bulls are 2-0 at home SU against Miami and 3-2 SU overall last 5 past two years. So 3.5-4 hold ton of value
                                Comment
                                • JayOne
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-18-13
                                  • 227

                                  #17
                                  I think I'm taking both home teams tonight.
                                  Comment
                                  • sav10rself
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 02-03-13
                                    • 59

                                    #18
                                    Great write up, with you on Spurs and Cinci. I like your argument against the Heat but I just find it hard betting against Lebron. BOL bro.
                                    Comment
                                    • ashulga
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 07-16-12
                                      • 247

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by sav10rself
                                      Great write up, with you on Spurs and Cinci. I like your argument against the Heat but I just find it hard betting against Lebron. BOL bro.
                                      Thanks you too. Kwahi Leonard actually is a late scratch tonight with knee issue, I am hoping we get another .5-1pt for his absense.
                                      Comment
                                      • sav10rself
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 02-03-13
                                        • 59

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by ashulga
                                        Thanks you too. Kwahi Leonard actually is a late scratch tonight with knee issue, I am hoping we get another .5-1pt for his absense.
                                        Hmm, would be nice. Do you like O/U 16 threes for the Spurs/Clips game or would you stay away?
                                        Comment
                                        • ashulga
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 07-16-12
                                          • 247

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by sav10rself
                                          Hmm, would be nice. Do you like O/U 16 threes for the Spurs/Clips game or would you stay away?
                                          I wouldn't touch it.
                                          Comment
                                          • reppin_the_847
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-10-10
                                            • 1576

                                            #22
                                            That might be true, but don't these guys often party this late too? lol. J/K tho I like the angle completely. Been saying it for since yesterday. Bulls & UNDER seem pretty solid. Public is hammering Miami.

                                            Originally posted by ashulga
                                            Forgot to add, read that Mia didn't arrive in Chicago until 3 AM last night. Might be nothing for lebron, but its way past Allens, Bosh's, Millers, Lewis, bed time so don't expect much from Bosch, and the bench.
                                            Comment
                                            • Pivotpoint
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-02-06
                                              • 1762

                                              #23
                                              Ashulga, good points. I'm all over the Bulls + 3 1/2. Contemplating adding another unit to that position. I lean towards the over, but doubt I play. I see a tight game with a scoring range between 192-195. Hate sweating totals. Gl
                                              Comment
                                              • Iw1nBets
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 02-20-13
                                                • 164

                                                #24
                                                BOL
                                                Comment
                                                • BossSwagger
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 10-01-11
                                                  • 69

                                                  #25
                                                  Im playing it that way as well. G/L
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ashulga
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 07-16-12
                                                    • 247

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Pivotpoint
                                                    Ashulga, good points. I'm all over the Bulls + 3 1/2. Contemplating adding another unit to that position. I lean towards the over, but doubt I play. I see a tight game with a scoring range between 192-195. Hate sweating totals. Gl
                                                    I also like lots of trends that point to under so I feel confident in that play. GL
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ashulga
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 07-16-12
                                                      • 247

                                                      #27
                                                      I typically don't play this many games in one day but I am going with
                                                      Bulls 1u +3.5
                                                      Under 1u 186
                                                      Cinci 1u pk
                                                      Parlay all 3 .5 unit
                                                      BOL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • layout4payout
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 01-14-13
                                                        • 66

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ashulga
                                                        I would never lay money line in any game unless you parlay. It's losing proposition in my opinion. To lay money line at 3 to 3.5 you had to buy 3-3.5 Pts. Would you not rather take bulls +7 at home then? I would all day especially knowing they always play close. So I guess my point is I would never by Pts, maybe hook that's it and yes I can see bulls winning. Bulls always get fired up for heat, and heat only seem to get fired up for okc. I guess they just don't view them as a threat.
                                                        i just hate taking the spread and then missing a cover by a point or 2. rather risk a little more and not have to worry about it, at least in this case. yea, i guess i could have taken bulls at +7, but i feel more confident taking the better team. bulls haven't impressed me at all, and heinrich is out again. good luck.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • reppin_the_847
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-10-10
                                                          • 1576

                                                          #29
                                                          This pains me greatly to say it, but unless the Bulls go on a 11-0 run or something, the Public was right tonight with Miami.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bjb7223
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-03-12
                                                            • 10349

                                                            #30
                                                            the public is not on Miami, the public is on Lebron James
                                                            Comment
                                                            • R.P. McMurphy
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 06-15-12
                                                              • 9654

                                                              #31
                                                              Starting to worry a little on my Spurs bet. Vegas gonna take one in the crapper in Bulls game and driving the line up in Spurs game to even out the action it looks like!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • vasilli07
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-08-11
                                                                • 3955

                                                                #32
                                                                The arriving late angle can't be used on a young team who got a long rest and is just playing their 2nd game in 2 days. Maybe if they are playing their 4th or 5th game, maybe that will start affect them.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Brent13081
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 04-23-09
                                                                  • 166

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The Chicago bulls are absolute TRASH!!! The bums play like there in college Big 10 fukkin ball run the shot clock down and get a horrible shot... pathetic team without rose-- PATHETIC!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • R.P. McMurphy
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 06-15-12
                                                                    • 9654

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Yeah Bulls looked like dogshit tonight!! Wish I had pulled trigger on Miami lean ... oh well hopefully Spurs hang! Said it last night don't fade Miami and Bron right now they are HOT. Pub $$ was part of the reason that scared me off but that's just a stupid angle with this team right now. The pub $ will ALWAYS be on them just ride them why they are hot.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ashulga
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 07-16-12
                                                                      • 247

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                                                                      Yeah Bulls looked like dogshit tonight!! Wish I had pulled trigger on Miami lean ... oh well hopefully Spurs hang! Said it last night don't fade Miami and Bron right now they are HOT. Pub $$ was part of the reason that scared me off but that's just a stupid angle with this team right now. The pub $ will ALWAYS be on them just ride them why they are hot.
                                                                      Thankfully spurs pulled through, but honestly Mia played liked shit and if bulls showed up at all they could have and should have won. Mia barely got to 86 Pts with couple of garbage 3 s at the end, it's just who would have thought bulls can't even get to 80 at home. As I said earlier only Lebron showed up. What is everybody impressed by bosh s 12 Pts 4 reb, or 3 Pts from Allen or 17 from wade? They all played bad Lebron just made plays when it mattered but if bulls weren't such dog sh*t at home this season they should have easily won that game
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