I am getting off the roller coaster of guessing spreads and totals. I do not see anyone here betting my new way and I think it may appeal to those tired of the wild swings of the nba.here are the steps
1) cap the game and before looking at the ml's asess the probability of each team winning outright
2)calculate what the money line should be according to your assesment
3)check the actual ml
4) use some variation of the kelly formula to determine the values of the plays (i divide by 5 which usually gives a 0-5 scale on +ev plays).
5)watch the line movements and try to get in at the optimal time.
6) bet small
here is an example from yesterday (of course I will use a winner)
1)I gave char. a 44% chance of winning.
2)ml should be 127
3)ml opened at 166
4)kelly divided by 5 =2.05
5)got in at +175 and risked 0.57 units to win 1 unit (1 unit is 1% of my bankroll)
this is a slow grinding system but if I lose I will know it was because of bad capping which can be corrected and not bad mm and chasing.Not sure if this will generate any interest from the action junkies here but anyway here are my assesments for tonight's games. I welcome any comments which could help sharpen these up as the system lives and dies by the accuracy of the assesments
I list the dog's chances as that is usually where the value is
tor 0.48, cha 0.44, nyk0.46, n.o.0.46, atl0.39, bkn0.43, hou0.4, phil0.46, orl0.12, bos0.47, pho0.35
1) cap the game and before looking at the ml's asess the probability of each team winning outright
2)calculate what the money line should be according to your assesment
3)check the actual ml
4) use some variation of the kelly formula to determine the values of the plays (i divide by 5 which usually gives a 0-5 scale on +ev plays).
5)watch the line movements and try to get in at the optimal time.
6) bet small
here is an example from yesterday (of course I will use a winner)
1)I gave char. a 44% chance of winning.
2)ml should be 127
3)ml opened at 166
4)kelly divided by 5 =2.05
5)got in at +175 and risked 0.57 units to win 1 unit (1 unit is 1% of my bankroll)
this is a slow grinding system but if I lose I will know it was because of bad capping which can be corrected and not bad mm and chasing.Not sure if this will generate any interest from the action junkies here but anyway here are my assesments for tonight's games. I welcome any comments which could help sharpen these up as the system lives and dies by the accuracy of the assesments
I list the dog's chances as that is usually where the value is
tor 0.48, cha 0.44, nyk0.46, n.o.0.46, atl0.39, bkn0.43, hou0.4, phil0.46, orl0.12, bos0.47, pho0.35