Leans for Monday December 8

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  • CTS5
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-02-08
    • 223

    #1
    Leans for Monday December 8
    So there are 4 games for tomorrow and I can't really get even one solid pick out of them. I've narrowed it down to orlando visiting the Mighty clippers. At first glance, orlando being a great road team, would look like an easy pick to cover 4 to 5 points against the clippers. However, after really looking into this game, I know everyone and their moms is going to lay their cash on orlando, and that does not seem like the right bet. Many forget the clippers recently acquiring Zach Randolph, and that is a huge addition to the clipper team. It is true that the clippers are inconsistent, but I believe at home the clippers will hold it down. I plan on waiting till tipoff to place my bet to get as many points possible assuming the line will go up a good amount. Anyone have any strong cases on why I should NOT go with the clippers and jump the bandwagon like everyone else on Orlando to cover the spread? Let me know wutsup boys?
  • CTS5
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-02-08
    • 223

    #2
    "The Magic were outrebounded 46-45 by the Thunder, two days after getting outrebounded 42-31 by Minnesota. The Clippers, meanwhile, are coming off a season-high 54-rebound effort against the Timberwolves."

    - I like this rebounding fact
    Comment
    • CTS5
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-02-08
      • 223

      #3
      Also:

      "Prior to last season’s 113-106 loss on Jan. 9, the Clippers had won six of the seven previous matchups with the Magic in Los Angeles."

      IM LIKING THE CLIPS ON THIS ONE!!!
      Comment
      • ManBearPig
        SBR MVP
        • 12-04-08
        • 2473

        #4
        LAC maynot win outright but they seem to playing pretty well and could cover here. Nothing in their stats really points to them being a winning play here but they are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games(winning 3) so they seem to be more competetive lately so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them cover. Im also liking Hou/Mem but not sure yet on what angle to choose.
        Comment
        • NBA Hero
          SBR MVP
          • 12-05-08
          • 1886

          #5
          thats about the case, you got it exactly correct. everybodys gonna bet on orlando.

          how about houston. do they own memphis? will yao have a field day? hows the comparison of mayo and rudy, are they palying horrible?
          Comment
          • Broncos9798
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-02-08
            • 236

            #6
            The Clippers are +3.5

            The clippers line has moved from +5 to +3.5. I think you guys got it wrong everybody is betting on LA.
            Comment
            • ryanXL977
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-24-08
              • 20615

              #7
              gsw is the only game id touch
              though orlando is great on the road
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                CTS5

                I like your analysis and all , but prior to me coming over to this forum, I never saw a topic titled the way that I title mine. The title to your thread looks awfully familiar to me for some reason...You do know this right? C'mon, man. Don't be so obvious with it.

                Here's your reason for not taking the Clips. they are on their 5th game in 7 days wiith double back to backs in that mix. Orlando failed to cover at home against the Thunder of all teams ( in a game that I got correct on the side call). Orlando is starting off a 5 game all out of conference road trip, on 2 days rest is an over .600 team (one of the East's elite records), and has had two ats losses in a row only twice this year, following each of their losses with 4 straight wins at the very least. This game is the first of a back to back. So the Clips don't win this game. It's only a matter of how much Orlando beats them by (trade aside or included in the game), and the same goes for Portland tomorrow night too as the Magic avenge the loss to portland earlier this year.
                Comment
                • CTS5
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 12-02-08
                  • 223

                  #9
                  Interesting analysis nocker. I just checked the line and it went down from +5 to +3.5 clippers. I also checked the betting trends and about 92% are betting on orlando to cover the spread. Something is going on here, but Im not sure what it is. Also, I didnt see you post for today last night, that's why i posted it.
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    A lot of posturing going on about this trade. It is going to happen. Marbury gets the most playing time in a deal to the Magic than in any other scenario. But specifically tonight, it wouldn't matter even if the Magic were short on players
                    Comment
                    • CTS5
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-02-08
                      • 223

                      #11
                      Ya good call on the trade deal. It would either be that or sometime of big injury, which could not have occurred out of the spur of the moment. With the spread going down so much, I believe magic will easily cover 3.5 points especially since this is the 1st game of their road trip. Ill hop aboard the magic train. Lets see what happens.
                      Comment
                      • CTS5
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-02-08
                        • 223

                        #12
                        you know what, I'm just going to pass on the orlando game. Why force anything, when I can wait for something better. Good luck guys.
                        Comment
                        • CTS5
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-02-08
                          • 223

                          #13
                          You know what, I'm gonna just going to make 2 straight bets today, and lay off the nfl. I know orlando at -4 (went back to -4 from -3.5) is the obvious pick, but its just too obvious for me. With about 95% of people picking orlando on the spread and about 98% on the money line without the line shifting towards orlando truly makes me want to take clippers. Also, on the warriors/thunder, the original line was -5 thunder and the public is putting it all on the warriors. I think this should be a close match, and the thunder have let a few close games get away from them. I like the thunder (kevin durant) to take over in the last few minutes and get the thunder their third win at home against a struggling warriors team.

                          Final Picks:

                          Clippers +4 *2 units
                          Thunder +1 *2 units
                          Parlay Clippers +4 and thunder +1 * 1 unit
                          Comment
                          • cnleaf
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-08-08
                            • 346

                            #14
                            hope thunder can come back for u. but im on GS.
                            Comment
                            • CTS5
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-02-08
                              • 223

                              #15
                              dam **** the thunder, but they washed out my initial bet with the 2nd half bet. Lets go clippers!
                              Comment
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