Leans for Sunday 12/7/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Sunday 12/7/08
    In NBA action tomorrow,

    I like the Bucks to get the job done against the Lakers. They are 4-0 ats against the Lakers in the last 4 games they have played against each other, and this one should be sweet as the Lakers have faltered away in the 4th quarters of their last couple of games on the road, and this one will be no different, as the Bucks come into Los Angeles playing well 2-0 ats. We will ride that momentum into the night and take the Bucks to get the job done. I had to put the missus to sleep the right way in order to come back and finish my thread topic.

    The Bucks will slow the game down a bit for the Lakers, and Michael Redd and company will shoot the lights out.


    Teams have a habit of responding in adverse ways to a blow out win and a blow out loss. We have two team meeting at the fork in the road in Boston and Indiana, wherein Boston won a blowout against the Blazers, and the Pacers got blown out at Cleveland. But the two of these teams met just a few days ago with Boston blowing out the Pacers by 18, 114-96. This in effect is a home and home series with a game in between to jack off.

    I will step in and take the home team, the Pacers and make my spread +8.5 by buying a pont if the public doesn't give it to me. This is the first time in 7 years that these two teams have battled one another in such close proximity of days. On a night where there are only 4 games, did you really think that the linemaker would be handing out a "gimmie" with the Celtics? Come on, that's too easy. And in this thing of ours, what looks easy never is.

    Indiana+8.5 (buying a point to get over the key number)

    Bucks +14 buying the hook to make my spread +14

    In NFL football

    Early games
    Titans-14


    Mid Day games

    Broncos-9.5 (PC Play my heaviest play)
    Bills-1
    Cardinals-6.5 1st half

    Late night play

    Ravens-5.5
  • LUNT101
    Restricted User
    • 03-12-07
    • 919

    #2
    CK, I absolutely love the Celtics tomorrow. I may go really big on it. What's your take?
    Comment
    • MAKAVELI 96
      SBR Hustler
      • 10-23-08
      • 98

      #3
      mil +14, por -2, and bos -7.5 look like solid plays ... detroit can't be trusted to cover 7 against the knicks ... detroit got completely fleeced in that AI/Billups deal ...
      Comment
      • 2qwik
        SBR Hustler
        • 11-12-08
        • 61

        #4
        Going big on Titans -14. Dorsey at QB and Titans at home! I know that the Browns beat the Giants but it wont happen again.
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          LUNT101,

          I have the Pacers losing by 4 in my rescoring model. I wish that I could tak the C's, but they just played not to long ago, so I have to fade the C's coming off of a big win, and the pacers coming off a big loss.

          However, if you feel strong about it, you have to grab your nuts and play the hand to win. I mean Boston is always a sound play because they don't let up off of the unleaded. Anyway good luck to you, LUNT101 .
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            PC Plays 6-2 ats since joining SBR forums
            Comment
            • I.R.B
              SBR MVP
              • 08-12-08
              • 3209

              #7
              Boston -7 is a gift.. Cant see them letting the Pacers get to comfterble with Bostons great D..
              Comment
              • africanroller
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-30-08
                • 936

                #8
                Ck got to give you some props on the Cincy/Hawaii pick. I guess Cincy didnt get tired thou as they put up 19 in the 4th. I took Ciny -6 for the first half as I figured they would come out firing. It wasnt pretty but I got the cover.

                The NFL today has some great money making opportunities. I will be playing Arizona first Half and second half as this will be an aerial show. One great thing about the Cards in they dont stop until the end.

                I like Greenbay -6 even thou they and Houston have the same record. Greenbay needed to get its D back in order and if they can contain AJ it shouldnt be close.

                I love the Jets at -4 as TJ should be a running machine. The Jets have a great run defense even thou it didnt show up last week. They should be able to contain Gore for the most part and that will make Hill throw the ball.

                Im still debating on the Bears at-6.5. I know Forte wont have a problem running the ball against a horrible Jags D but has Orton got his timing back. He finally admitted during the week he was struggling but I think he can turn it around against Jax.

                I am also debating the Ravens tonight at -5. I am waiting to closer to game time for the inactives
                Comment
                • africanroller
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-30-08
                  • 936

                  #9
                  Portland -2.5 to Toronto? Has Toronto gone out and recieved a new team?
                  Comment
                  • iladelcat
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 02-28-08
                    • 293

                    #10
                    Originally posted by africanroller
                    Portland -2.5 to Toronto? Has Toronto gone out and recieved a new team?
                    Toronto is terrible!!! Guard play for Toronto is sorely lacking....Portland covers imo...
                    Comment
                    • chipper8888
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 11-19-08
                      • 71

                      #11
                      Im just heading out to the Raptors game now......Dont forget they are very good at home, i will take the raps -2.5
                      Comment
                      • peterpan19
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-02-08
                        • 3377

                        #12
                        still thinking about det -6
                        any thoughts ?
                        Comment
                        • africanroller
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-30-08
                          • 936

                          #13
                          Portland -2

                          Greenbay -7

                          Looking at Giants -3.5 First half
                          Looking at Titans -7.5 First half I think they will explode out the gate since the Brownies havnt scored a TD in two games.
                          Comment
                          • cocknocker
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-06-08
                            • 8001

                            #14
                            I can smell my money burning with Tennessee. They have come out flat. The Browns are playing way over their heads today....
                            Comment
                            • 2qwik
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 11-12-08
                              • 61

                              #15
                              Tennessee will come out strong 2nd half CK and they just scored another Touchdown. Tennessee and Fisher will make their adjustments and tear into the Browns. They are way too good of a defense and running team to let them back in the game. I believe the Titans will cover and if they do I will be throwing that money on your PC play of Broncos -9.5.

                              In PC I believe!
                              Comment
                              • africanroller
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-30-08
                                • 936

                                #16
                                Well the first half of Football today was a wash. Hit the Titans but lost on the Giants.
                                Comment
                                • africanroller
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-30-08
                                  • 936

                                  #17
                                  What do you guys think about Giants -4 second half and Vikings -6.5 second half
                                  Comment
                                  • cocknocker
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 8001

                                    #18
                                    I am sitting pat until the Titans show me the money.

                                    roller, it's all good. The atmosphere in Hwaii is not a good one for the average young man trying to broaden his horizons. It's tough to be hard in paradise. But taht's college football, homes. Cincy will do it for you in their bowl game, though. Good luck today. FYI I don't do many 2nd halves in football. Just one every now and then.
                                    Comment
                                    • africanroller
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-30-08
                                      • 936

                                      #19
                                      Yeah thats good, I shouldnt have done first seconds or games right now.
                                      Comment
                                      • pronk
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-22-08
                                        • 6887

                                        #20
                                        Fellas, huge play this afternoon @ 4PM:

                                        Michigan St -15

                                        GL.
                                        Comment
                                        • cocknocker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 8001

                                          #21
                                          My mistake on my post on the top of this thread. I am taking the Cardinals-8.5 1st half in the mid day game. Buffalo is a great looking play to me. Everyone (66%) are on the Dolphins, yet the line went up to 1.5 and 2 on some books. This game will be played in Canada in the snow and what not. The Dolphins had quite a long way to fly to get there.

                                          The Ravens are a 71 to 29% majority, and accordingly the line is going up a bit, now resting at 6. Since the number is still below a key number, i will play the game spread as is at 6.

                                          With 82% of bettors on the side of the Celtics, the line has stayed the same on this game. With consensus numbers like that, the line should have gone up to 8 at least by now. If the line stays the same, I will play it at +8.5 anyway, because i want the Pacers at home with a 10 point cushion.

                                          The Bucks are a 33 to 67% minority and the line for that game has not changed either, stillat 13.5. Of course i will buy it up to 14.5 by buying a point and getting on top of that key number.



                                          Denver is still looking like a great play too. Obviously snake bitten bettors still feel the sting from the first game between the Cheifs and the Broncos. But no to worry. With only 56% of bettors on their side, the line has stayed intact at -9.5. I like that.
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            Got it, pronk. Michigan State it is!
                                            Comment
                                            • cocknocker
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 8001

                                              #23
                                              Titans are lighting a match underneath my money. I can sell it smoldering already. They are allowing the Browns to hang around in this game
                                              Comment
                                              • africanroller
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-30-08
                                                • 936

                                                #24
                                                Greenbay, Portland GiantsX2 and the Vikings are burning my money
                                                Comment
                                                • africanroller
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 11-30-08
                                                  • 936

                                                  #25
                                                  TD TITANS!!! You can breath now haha. GB ties it up and Im praying for a push. Vikings are driving but AP has fumbled the ball twice ugghh
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nzwarrior
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                    • 162

                                                    #26
                                                    Love your picks gonna jump on it and play the + on both the evening games, Thanks
                                                    On DEN -9.5 already....
                                                    Do you think 7.5 is enough for the pacers?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • wangichu
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-07-08
                                                      • 946

                                                      #27
                                                      I hope SOMEONE else is cashing off this beautiful display of eagle football. that ML was a little low @ +230 for a 7pt spread so i slammed them both harder than i hit the PC play, maybe i'll load up a little more on the broncos now... revenge in the mile high city and the happless chiefs just don't know what's about to hit them. Love those NBA plays CK, i'm just gonna borrow them today.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BeanSaunce
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 11-24-08
                                                        • 54

                                                        #28
                                                        Titans may hold out!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • africanroller
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-30-08
                                                          • 936

                                                          #29
                                                          Wow the Vikings kicked a fg with 22 seconds to cover my second half spread.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • africanroller
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 936

                                                            #30
                                                            But of course I lost #2 on the Giants so first and second half pushes
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cocknocker
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-06-08
                                                              • 8001

                                                              #31
                                                              Alright...now the money is smelling good again!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                i hope that Fullers' decision not to kick a field goal doesn't come back to bite me. i don't know why he didin't just kick the field gaol and go up 31-9. I can still get back door'd with a Cleveland touchdown during garbage time. you already knw that the Titans are going to play prevent defense and not rush the quarterback
                                                                Comment
                                                                • africanroller
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-30-08
                                                                  • 936

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Well my money today just went up in flames. Houston went into snowy Lambeau and won. I cannot believe it
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cocknocker
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                                    • 8001

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Nail biter
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Whew! We got it. With a 14 point spread a team is never out of the game! I am going to take the Browns next week against the Eagles though, as they will manage to find a way to cover.
                                                                      Comment
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