Picks from Mexico 10-feb 2013 :)

Artieaa · 02-10-13, 03:06 PM

Ok let´s take a look at Lakers game:

Lakers at Miami -8.5: Should be a no brainer to lay th epts here right?, LA has no stat above 42% ATS on the road, while Miami has some decent 54´s % at home, this is last game from their road trip for LA, what concerns me here is that after running numbers I see this game being decided by 9 pts, line is at 8.5, too close to call, I better wait for later games.

Will be back shortly to post later games leans.

figue · 02-10-13, 03:11 PM

good luck paisano.

Artieaa · 02-10-13, 03:49 PM

Let´s take a look at the rest of the card:

Portland at Orlando+3: Portland struggles on the road 0-2 ATS as a road fav, 34.8% ATS after 1 day off, Orlando sucks ATS 32% at home, 38.2% after a loss, where I could see a good value here is on the totals, evn though Orlando found the way to score constantly last game I still see 2 teams playing a mid slow pace, My lean UNder 196.5.

Denver at Boston -2: rough spot here for the nuggets, they play on b2b on the road, 3rd gm in 4 days, and have to face the red hot C´s, since I don´t feel ok fading such a hot team as Denver preffer to pass.

Wolves at Memphis -9: Grizzlies play a great 60% ATS as home fav, 61.5% at home, 65.4% after a day off, for the Wolves it´s the first game away from home commodities after 6 games stand, my lean Memphis -9.

NOrleans at Toronto -3.5: Both teams have made me good money ATS, too difficult for me to fade either one, pass.

OKC at Suns +9: OKC is the best team ATS after a day off 68.8% while Suns is 34.6% last. What concerns me here and make me even think to fade OKC that last 2 games for them on the road they lost to Cleveland and LA, as a matter of fact they are 4-5 in last 9 away from home. Have to think about it , I might go with Suns +9. Also see a good value here on the totals, Suns play a way better defense at home and a slower pace, and I see OKC working on def tonight since I mentioned before they struggle last 3 away from home allowing 108.3. My lean Under 204.5

Houston at Kings +6: Sacramento is on b2b, overall they play poorly ATS 38.5% as home dog, 34.6% in conference games, 39.13% at home, the only thing that concerns me here is that Houston plays a poor 39.3% ATS in conference games and is 1-4 ATS as road fav.My lean Houston -6.

Spurs at Nets +2.5: Spurs is coming from an emabarras,ent loss to Pistons, they play a great 71.4% ATS in non conference games, and 55.6% away from home, the fact that Nets play a nice 60% ATS as home dog makes me think about this game. My lean Spurs -2.5. I see good value here on the totals, Spurs run one of the fastest pace away from home with high %efficiency, if Nets are to keep into the game they will score constantly as well, my lean Over 194.5.

Will be back later to post final plays

GLTA

Artieaa · 02-10-13, 05:34 PM

After daily drill here are my plays:

Memphis -9:
Suns +9:
Spurs/Nets Over 194.5

Will throw a 50 dls parlay for fun in what I believe are sucker plays("too good to be true lines"):

Orlando +3
Hornets +3.5
Nets +2.5

GLTA!!!!

NYCWinner · 02-10-13, 07:08 PM

tailed, I thought Memphis -9 is a bit high, but couldn't resist getting -8.5. Let's get it!

Artieaa · 02-10-13, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by NYCWinner

tailed, I thought Memphis -9 is a bit high, but couldn't resist getting -8.5. Let's get it!

was not high

glad you take it!!!

NYCWinner · 02-10-13, 10:31 PM

Yup , awesome! That Over was dicey at the end lol..thank god for the first half. 3-1 night for me. I had Tor as well. Gracias!

Artieaa · 02-10-13, 10:40 PM

2-1 for the night, all because I wanted to get fancy with that garbage pick of Suns, I mentioned everything that had to be taken into account in my previews, should had played the Under instead of trying to be "smart" at the end those are the plays that makes me feel and look like a rookie

, live and learn!!!!!

ATS 34-26
Totals 22-11

Working on tomorrow´s card already
Have a good one
GLTA