ATS 31-24
Totals 18-10
Bug card tonight let´s start:
Toronto at Indiana +7.5: While Indiana owns nice % ATS as home fav 63.2%, Conference 55.2%, Toronto owns some pretty nice % as well, 56% in conference games and 56.7% after a loss. What concerns me here is that Toronto looked terrible vs Boston last game at home letting a big lead gone in 4th qtr, and Indiana is starting a 5game stand and playing 4th game in 5 days, I see good value here on the totals, Indiana has been scoring an avg 109 pts last 3 at home while allowing 97.7, Toronto is scoring and allowing more than 101 on the road last 3, My leans Toronto +7.5 and Over 188.5.
Nets at Wizards -1.5: A PK game for me, Washington owns best record ATS after a win 81.8%, while Nets is playaing a decent 54.2% after a day off, What concerns me here is that I don´t like games were lowere rated tem for me is laying points, pass.
Lakers at Bobcats +6.5: Lakers looked bad yesterday, being honest I don´t see any stat to back them up (learned the hard way yesterday) on the other hand I don´t feel like putting money on the Bobcats, though I see good value here on the totals, I see this game going less than 200, My lean Under 203.5.
Spurs at Detroit +5: Spurs is on a hot streak 11 wins streak, very simple don´t fix what is not broken, My lean Spurs -5. I like this game alos on the totals, Spurs run one of the faster paces in the game with a nice %eff. Leaning Over 197.
Portland at Houston -6.5: I like Houston here at home where they excel, Portland is a mediocre team on the road, only thing concerns me is that Houston is 30.4% ATS after a loss and only 37% ATS in conference games, my lean Houston -6.5.
Orland at Cleveland -6.5: question here is , will Orlando wake up or will they continue to struggle, will pass on this game, pts should be enough for Orlando to cover but how can you bet a team scoring 61 pts in a game?. Have to think about the totals here if Orlando comes to their recent form I like the Ubder here, my lean Under 197.5.
Hornets at Atlanta -4.5: Atlanta as a I stated before is fade or no play, well I think this is a great spot to fade them, NOrleans owns 2best in the league ATS as road dog 68%, 1st ATS as road team 65.4%, while Atlanta is 38.9% ATS as home fav, and 39.1% as home team. My lean Hornets +4.5.
NYork at Minnesota +6: Knicks are 64.3% ATS after a loss, while Wolves are 22.2% ATS as home dog, some ppl may say this line is innacurate, I would say it´s where it´s supposed to be maybe 1 pt higher, My lean Knicks -6.
G.Sate at Memphis -3.5: Both teams arte riding a 2 game losing streak and come from a day off, both teams have great % ATS line is at 3.5 and I see this game being decided by 3 or 4 pts, I better walk away.
Clippers at Miami: My book has not posted line yet, shpuld be aroun 3 or 4, anyway I don´t feel like playing Clippers too much trouble aroun capping them, pass.
Suns at OKC -12.5: Even I see OKC winning by 16 at least DD no play for me.
Chicago at Utah -4: difficult spot for ythe bulls, b2b, last game on the road and facing a pretty good team at home, If were not a b2b I would consider taking the pts, in this spot my lean Utah -4. Also like here the totals I see this game around 191 pts my lean Over 185.
I´ll be back shortly to post final plays
GLTA
Totals 18-10
Bug card tonight let´s start:
Toronto at Indiana +7.5: While Indiana owns nice % ATS as home fav 63.2%, Conference 55.2%, Toronto owns some pretty nice % as well, 56% in conference games and 56.7% after a loss. What concerns me here is that Toronto looked terrible vs Boston last game at home letting a big lead gone in 4th qtr, and Indiana is starting a 5game stand and playing 4th game in 5 days, I see good value here on the totals, Indiana has been scoring an avg 109 pts last 3 at home while allowing 97.7, Toronto is scoring and allowing more than 101 on the road last 3, My leans Toronto +7.5 and Over 188.5.
Nets at Wizards -1.5: A PK game for me, Washington owns best record ATS after a win 81.8%, while Nets is playaing a decent 54.2% after a day off, What concerns me here is that I don´t like games were lowere rated tem for me is laying points, pass.
Lakers at Bobcats +6.5: Lakers looked bad yesterday, being honest I don´t see any stat to back them up (learned the hard way yesterday) on the other hand I don´t feel like putting money on the Bobcats, though I see good value here on the totals, I see this game going less than 200, My lean Under 203.5.
Spurs at Detroit +5: Spurs is on a hot streak 11 wins streak, very simple don´t fix what is not broken, My lean Spurs -5. I like this game alos on the totals, Spurs run one of the faster paces in the game with a nice %eff. Leaning Over 197.
Portland at Houston -6.5: I like Houston here at home where they excel, Portland is a mediocre team on the road, only thing concerns me is that Houston is 30.4% ATS after a loss and only 37% ATS in conference games, my lean Houston -6.5.
Orland at Cleveland -6.5: question here is , will Orlando wake up or will they continue to struggle, will pass on this game, pts should be enough for Orlando to cover but how can you bet a team scoring 61 pts in a game?. Have to think about the totals here if Orlando comes to their recent form I like the Ubder here, my lean Under 197.5.
Hornets at Atlanta -4.5: Atlanta as a I stated before is fade or no play, well I think this is a great spot to fade them, NOrleans owns 2best in the league ATS as road dog 68%, 1st ATS as road team 65.4%, while Atlanta is 38.9% ATS as home fav, and 39.1% as home team. My lean Hornets +4.5.
NYork at Minnesota +6: Knicks are 64.3% ATS after a loss, while Wolves are 22.2% ATS as home dog, some ppl may say this line is innacurate, I would say it´s where it´s supposed to be maybe 1 pt higher, My lean Knicks -6.
G.Sate at Memphis -3.5: Both teams arte riding a 2 game losing streak and come from a day off, both teams have great % ATS line is at 3.5 and I see this game being decided by 3 or 4 pts, I better walk away.
Clippers at Miami: My book has not posted line yet, shpuld be aroun 3 or 4, anyway I don´t feel like playing Clippers too much trouble aroun capping them, pass.
Suns at OKC -12.5: Even I see OKC winning by 16 at least DD no play for me.
Chicago at Utah -4: difficult spot for ythe bulls, b2b, last game on the road and facing a pretty good team at home, If were not a b2b I would consider taking the pts, in this spot my lean Utah -4. Also like here the totals I see this game around 191 pts my lean Over 185.
I´ll be back shortly to post final plays
GLTA