RABID POD Houston @ Denver under 216

[RabidGolfer]

Gentlemen (and bleek88),

I'm feeling reckless today! I found a game I feel very strongly about, and for the second time this month I'm dropping 75% of my bankroll on one play. The last time I did this, I was wildly successful here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...13-vs-sac.html

Anyway, this is my reasoning from my picks thread.

Guys, the more I look at the Houston @ Denver game, the more I want to take the total under 217. It's a huge total because both teams have been running up the points at times, but check out these stats:

2012-2013
Houston's points per game this year against Denver = 91
Houston's points per game this year on the road = 101
Denver's points per game at home this year = 107
Denver's points per game this year vs Houston = 99

Based on this year's stats, both teams score considerably lower than their averages when playing each other. They've only been matched up twice this year, and both times were in Houston, so lets look at last year's numbers:

2011-2012
Houston's points per game against Denver = 98
Houston's points per game on the road = 96
Denver's points per game at home = 103
Denver's points per game vs Houston = 103

Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to believe the total could exceed 217. Denver seems to hold Houston to a ppg average well below their overall average. It's a small sample size, but I think its enough for me to bet heavy on the under tonight. Especially considering both teams have been increasing their defensive efforts.

While I was writing this, the doggone line moved a point, so I'm going to throw caution to the wind and drop 75% of my bankroll on this one.
RABID PICK OF THE DAY Houston @ Denver under 216

I'm going big on this one boys. Play at your own risk! Good luck!

I welcome your comments and thoughts. Good luck!

[RabidGolfer]

Also, if your book has a better total than this, please post it. I think Bovada sometimes has the worst lines.

[RabidGolfer]

Hopefully they'll slow things down a little bit in the second half. Otherwise it's going to be a nail biter.

[DallasMaverick41]

I'm cheering for you my man.
I'm kind of happy I went with the Lakers to win against the Suns.
This one will be close till the very end, maybe even an overtime.

[RabidGolfer]

I'm cheering for you my man.
I'm kind of happy I went with the Lakers to win against the Suns.
This one will be close till the very end, maybe even an overtime.

Man, you got robbed in that game

[ThaTopMoron]

and that... is why, you don't play 75% of your BR on one NBA play

op is

[RabidGolfer]

and that... is why, you don't play 75% of your BR on one NBA play

op is

Thank you, I played it understanding the implications of a loss. Glad you pointed out that losing the game means losing your original bet though. There may be some here that didn't get that.

[chargers4222]

who do you like tonight rabid

[DallasMaverick41]

who do you like tonight rabid

He bet on GSW to cover the spread tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.

[RabidGolfer]

I'm taking Golden State minus the three points. I know they don't have the depth of because of injuries, but I think The guys they have playing right now are underrated.

[RabidGolfer]

He bet on GSW to cover the spread tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.

Are you taking the Mavs tonight bro?

[DallasMaverick41]

Are you taking the Mavs tonight bro?

I posted something on your thread.
I bet all of my "betting money" on Lakers last night and need to re-mass some money before gambling again.

[RabidGolfer]

I posted something on your thread.
I bet all of my "betting money" on Lakers last night and need to re-mass some money before gambling again.

Dang, my bad. Hope you bounce back soon!

[ThaTopMoron]

all I'm saying is the NBA is whore shit

never go big in the NBA... it's where amazing happens

[RabidGolfer]

all I'm saying is the NBA is whore shit

never go big in the NBA... it's where amazing happens

I know. I go back and forth. I try to play it smart usually, but it's too much fun to throw down a big bet when you think you have a lock. I'm not betting my rent money, so I like to take that risk once in a while.