After 2 years of gambling, I figured it out.

[mr.trillo]

Wsup sbr.. been on this site a little over a year now. Never cared to make an account because I don't gamble often and my insight wouldn't be of any value lol. I have learned a lot from this forum though. I've been a pretty unsuccessful so far, so I don't do it. But I'm going to start up again, and here's why: pretty sure I figured out a fool proof way to be profitable long term.

So in a nut shell, I fade picks from someone who is an average sports fan and brand new to the gambling scene. I started this yesterday and it is 5-1. Solid fade material is just as good as solid tail material right?

My logic behind this is basically that beginning gamblers will not be profitable long term. I show him the point spreads and give him 5 minutes to come up with his 3 best picks (so he does not have time to research). I also give him $10 for every correct pick and do not penalize him for the ones he gets wrong. This way he doesn't really have any motivation to get better at it lol. He'a going to lose way more than he wins so the $10 per win is not even a big deal, it'll keep him happy and will definitely keep him in the mindset of a beginning gambler.. Vegas is not kind to beginners.. & I think we can all agree that it's impossible to put ourselves into the mind of a beginner and then fade OURSELVES. Especially after being on sbr lol..

Here is what he has picked so far:

Jan 26.
Knicks-4 LOSS
San Antonio -10 LOSS
Hoston/Nets Over 200 WIN

Jan 27.
Miami -4 LOSS
Okc -3.5/Over208.5 LOSS LOSS

Fade record: 5-1

Will be keeping track here. Gl all

[mr.trillo]

Also, he does not gamble what so ever. I only introduced him to the concept of point spreads and over/unders for the purpose of my system. Lol

[TwoWays]

Not a good idea. If i were betting with you I'd just take all dogs, favs, unds, or overs. It would only take me a second to pick games.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

this is a new one. i picture you as buffalo bill from silence of the lambs, with some poor mediocre sports fan in a pit, and you yellling it puts the picks in the basket. im interested tho, unique angle, and good start.

[ShogunRua]

He'll probably end up hitting around 48-50%. Won't be as profitable as you think.

[mr.trillo]

this is a new one. i picture you as buffalo bill from silence of the lambs, with some poor mediocre sports fan in a pit, and you yellling it puts the picks in the basket. im interested tho, unique angle, and good start.

Lol that's pretty much it. Except I'm not yelling at him/putting any pressure. I make it seem like he's helping me out

[samrock67]

It's an interesting concept, but there is no fool-proof way to be profitable long term. Just a fact of life.

[Ratzz]

Lol that's pretty much it. Except I'm not yelling at him/putting any pressure. I make it seem like he's helping me out

this is brilliant.. i love it
(stop the instant you start losing money)
but for the moment, excellent idea.

cheers to this idea

[TwoWays]

You can also save yourself the trouble and fade yourself. Just make sure you consciously unconsciously pick picks, with the knowledge of knowing you will fade the fader.

[blankoblanco]

He'll probably end up hitting around 48-50%. Won't be as profitable as you think.

+1. This isn't 5 years ago when you could profit easily just fading joe public in reasonable spots without capping the games yourself. The sports betting market and lines are not perfect but they're incredibly efficient. The reason the public loses so much isn't because they pick significantly worse than half the games right, it's because of juice

[juice050]

cool idea.. gl

[Askii]

Fading you new people from gambling seems good. Tried it and profitable for 2 weeks. Just like a while ago a friend of mine new to this point spread and all picked Mia and Okc. Seems easy for him since they are the better teams which Vegas wants new people to think and easy money for them. Good luck on your fade system. And btw. Pick your fade picks.

[bleek88]

this is a new one. i picture you as buffalo bill from silence of the lambs, with some poor mediocre sports fan in a pit, and you yellling it puts the picks in the basket. im interested tho, unique angle, and good start.

Seek help.

[pouyasophy]

It seems like a good idea...but the karma will burn you in the end....fading picks are a short term success

[Coreos]

I thought you would post "quit".

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Seek help.

lol. thanks. ill look into it.

[bjb7223]

took you 2 years? We do this every night. Just fade Brock, Pauly, Johnny Brooklyn and Bradley Snyder and you'll hit 70%.

[TheDane]

This can't possibly go wrong.

[mr.trillo]

1/28:
Philly +1.5
Wash/Sac Over 203.5
Utah/Houston Over 208.5

Those are his picks so our plays are:

Memphis -1.5
Wash/Sac Under 203.5
Utah/Houston Under 208.5

[El Sol]

+1. This isn't 5 years ago when you could profit easily just fading joe public in reasonable spots without capping the games yourself. The sports betting market and lines are not perfect but they're incredibly efficient. The reason the public loses so much isn't because they pick significantly worse than half the games right, it's because of juice

5 years ago? its never been like that thrust me, well maybe 100 years ago when there was more corruption...

[mr.trillo]

1/28:
Philly +1.5
Wash/Sac Over 203.5
Utah/Houston Over 208.5

Those are his picks so our plays are:

Memphis -1.5
Wash/Sac Under 203.5
Utah/Houston Under 208.5

Looking good once again

[bjb7223]

lol 3-0

[Ratzz]

damn. this is brilliant.

love this.

[Ratzz]

pisses me off too. lol.

i expended so much time and energy, figuring this out.! damnit

[Ms. Degen]

definitely something to watch over long term for trend or pattern,
keep it up!

will be observing.

[MP123]

Does he know what ur doing?

[kobstopa]

This is the same as fade public trend

[ColdBeerHere]