CoLout 2012-2013 NBA Thread

[colout]

Hello guys!

I'm going to be posting up my NBA plays in here. Feel free to fade or tail. I play a good amount of totals, quarter lines, halftime lines and the occasional favorite/dog moneyline. A play is official when it's in bold and says LOCKED. GL to everyone on their plays.

[colout]

3 Games on the board tonight.

Knicks -2.5 LOCKED (x1.5)
Felton is back - Knicks are 6-6 without Felton, and 20-8 with Felton..

Bucks/GS Over 207.5 LOCKED (x1)
Both teams good from downtown.
Both teams allow easy lay-ups.
Bucks avg. 109.3 pts in last 3 games and allows 106.3 pts
GSW avg 100.1 pts away in last 3 games and allows 102.0 pts.

Nuggets -12 LOCKED (x1)
Kings coming from b2b vs OKC. Tough match, traveling to denver.
Kings 3rd match in 4 days.
Denver smashed the Kings last time, they will do it again!
Denver is gonna outrebound the Kings. Denver leads in off. rebs, while Kings leading in allowing most off. rebounds.

[colout]

Knicks -2.5 locked (x1.5)loss
Bucks/GS over 207.5 locked (x1)WINNER
Nuggets -12 locked (x1)WINNER

2-1 night but very disappointed that the Knicks didn't come with that power I thought they would, with Felton back!

[colout]

Heat ML -160 LOCKED(x1)

I'am going to be playing the Miami Heat away against the Boston Celtics here in the early game.
Boston is 0-5 SU (And ATS) in their last 5 games, and haven't won against Miami in their last 3 h2h. Heat smashed Pistons by 22 points in the last game. Miami are 6-1 SU in their last 7. Boston is coming off a tough loss against Atlanta, played 2 x OT and lost with 12 points. Boston are playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while Miami are well rested, 2 games the last 9 days. Boston looked gassed in the end against Atlanta, only made 4 points, 1 rebound and 3 turnovers in the last 5 min. Just 36 hours later, totally ready to host the last year champions Miami Heat. I don't think so. Boston is 4-5 playing with no rest, while Miami is 5-1 with no rest. Boston is 2-7 in national tv games. Everybody is talking about Allen coming back to Boston the first time. As I see it, two things can happen. Allen is shooting low % or just not existing, or his new team will help him to win in his former house. We all saw what happen when LBJ went back to Cleveland the first time. (38 points)
Heat's biggest weakness is opponents offensive rebounding and 3 pointers. Boston is horrible offensive rebounding and doesn't hit 3's. They are ranked 27 in the NBA in offensive rebound and ranked last in made 3 pointers, only 5.4 per game. Boston on revenge against Miami and Allen, but I just don't see that giving energy to a squad with that schedule in mind. Boston is 1-3 as home dogs. Some bookies open at -4, went to -3.5 and then back to -4, with 68,3% coming in on Miami.. Bookies seems to be happy with the action on Miami, thats the main reason I pick the ML here.

[colout]

As for later, I am leaning Magic -2. RLM on this play.. Public is pounding Detroit, but the fact that Magic started at -1.5 on pinnacle, and moved to -2.5 with public being on Detroit, doesn't make that much sense. Detroit on the road coming from Miami, where they lost with 22 points. Magic lost home to Raptors on a boozer from DeRozan, a game that they at least should take to OT. Detroit are one of the worst away teams, they are 2-16 as away dogs this season. Revenge game for Magic. Orlando is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit. Great spot for the Magic to bounce back before they are going on a 5 games road trip.

[colout]

Magic -1.5 LOCKED (x1)

Gonna back Orlando in this spot, facing a weak road team, before going on a 5 games road trip!

[colout]

Lets go Miami Heat!

[colout]

Hawks/Knicks Over 194 LOCKED (x1)

[colout]

Blake Griffin Over 18.5 point -115 LOCKED

Bookie Tipico is way off here, other bookies are all in 21.5..
Griffin takes more shots while CP3 is out. Griffin avg. 18.5 in season, and 22.3 without CP3
Portland is the team that allows most points in the paint.

[colout]

Heat ML -160 LOCKED(x1)loss
Magic -1.5 LOCKED (x1)loss
Hawks/Knicks Over 194 LOCKED (x1)WINNER
Blake Griffin Over 18.5 point -115 LOCKED WINNER

2-2 on tonight games with two tough loss - Griffin pick was 1 units play

[colout]

GS Warriors -1.5 LOCKED (x1)

[colout]

Brooklyn Nets -9.5 LOCKED (x2)
Magic b2b and without leading scorer Afflalo.
Nets going to dominate inside, and get easy lay ups!

Brook Lopez Over 18.5 point -115 LOCKED (x1)
Avg. 20,3 points in the last 3 matches.

Orlando Magic TT Under 92.5 LOCKED (x1)

[colout]

Cash that 2 unit play!!

[colout]

Brooklyn Nets -9.5 LOCKED (x2)WINNER
GS Warriors -1.5 LOCKED (x1)WINNER
Orlando Magic TT Under 92.5 LOCKED (x1)WINNER
Brook Lopez Over 18.5 point -115 LOCKED (x1)loss

3-1 tonight - Great win on the 2 unit play, only loss was Brook Lopez that scored 16 point

[colout]

Los Angeles Lakers -2 1Q LOCKED (x1)

I will be rolling with LA Lakers today in the 1Q at home vs the New Orleans Hornets.
Lakers on a 2 game win streak, trying to make it the 3rd tonight. Lakers with 3 days rest, coming from victory against OKC.

I will be rolling with the Lakers in the 1Q for good reason. They are a much better 1Q team then 2Q, especiallly at home. Lakers avg. 1st quarter margin is +3.9 They like to start off fast and strong at home. In the last 5 matches in Los Angeles they avg. +6,8 in 1Q margin, only loss came to Miami which are one of the best 1Q away teams in the league. Hornets avg. -0.7 in 1Q margin this season... Lakers avg. 26,6 points in the 1Q, while Hornets avg. 23.4 point in the 1Q..

The line movement looks great so far in the 1Q. The line opened up at Lakers -2 1Q -110 and has already gone up to Lakers 1Q -2.5 at some places. Pinnacle still has -2, but juiced it to -117.

[colout]

Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 LOCKED (x2)
Warriors without Bogut, Curry, Barnes, while Irving is playing.
Warriors with their 4rd game ind 5 days, coming off tough win in Toronto.

[colout]

Los Angeles Lakers -2 1Q LOCKED (x1)loss
Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 LOCKED (x2)loss

bad night going 0-2.. Lakers won 1Q with 1 point, with Kobe having the last shot, but a bad miss.. Going to bounce back tonight!