Dallas Mavs Line Movement

[Speedy88]

Last night I went to bed and the Mavs were +4. Now I see they are +6 at some books. I really like the value here with Dallas at +6, just surprised the line has moved this much. Any thoughts on this game?

Mavs have been sneaky good since getting Dirk back healthy. I think they can make a strong run at one of those last playoff spots out west. And they're the second best team in their state, not the Rockets.

[Yinz Hooligan]

i think 6 is great value, dal always seem to play okc well. westy and durant been having big nights maybe there due for a off night? my book still only has 5.

speedy are you from seattle?

[Speedy88]

i think 6 is great value, dal always seem to play okc well. westy and durant been having big nights maybe there due for a off night? my book still only has 5.

speedy are you from seattle?

Dallas always plays OKC tough. And they're finally coming together. Nothing better in the NBA than home dogs on a Friday night. And yeah, I'm from Seattle.

[Yinz Hooligan]

cool, i havent met anyone from the area on the forum yet..im also from the area..253 to be exact.

anyways good luck on your plays tonight!

I was thinking of taking dallas also later, hopefully my books go to 5.5 or 6 by tip

[Speedy88]

Every book is at +6 now except for Pinny and Greek who are holding at +5.5.

[No coincidences]

I took the Mavs at +4.5 this morning for my largest bet of the year Speedy.

Needless to say the movement has me concerned.

[jsleeeee]

Dallas +6 is a square bet. So i see some squares here! The line is set up like that so squares can pick dallas. Okc wins by more than 7

[brainfreeze0]

Dallas +6 is a square bet. So i see some squares here! The line is set up like that so squares can pick dallas. Okc wins by more than 7

Ummmm no. 82% of the betting public is on OKC to win including you. OKC is the square play. #1 in the NBA, 8-1 home/ road wins in last nine games. How the hell do you get a squarer pick than OKC thats won 8 out of its last nine games and has 82% of the bets on them vs a .400 team thats a 12 seed getting only 18% of the bets?

[freeeze]

Pinny holding Dallas + 5.5 at +100. You like that Speedy? I'd say Dallas keeps it close here but might wait a little bit to see if the line goes to +6.

[lunchbawks]

mavs/ okc games always come down to the last shot.

[Riceboi]

I gave up on trying to include public betting % when capping games. I tried it yesterday when everyone on knicks and clippers and guess what both plays still won. that shit doesn't matter.

[Speedy88]

I'm totally disregarding the line movement. Dallas +6 will be one of my bigger plays this year.

[brainfreeze0]

Took Dallas as well. Dirk's heatin up

[Goat Milk]

Ummmm no. 82% of the betting public is on OKC to win including you. OKC is the square play. #1 in the NBA, 8-1 home/ road wins in last nine games. How the hell do you get a squarer pick than OKC thats won 8 out of its last nine games and has 82% of the bets on them vs a .400 team thats a 12 seed getting only 18% of the bets?

There's no such thing as a square or a sharp bet. Dallas isn't a true .400 team that's why they're only getting 5/6 points. Stop looking at trends and records.

[SEKTAUR]

I'm totally disregarding the line movement. Dallas +6 will be one of my bigger plays this year.

this game has no meaning to it, definitly not worth one of the biggest plays of the year.

[t-wizzle]

Doesn't make much sense to me. Mavs have been hot and seemed like the sharp play. I still like them but I can't ignore this line movement.

[brainfreeze0]

There's no such thing as a square or a sharp bet. Dallas isn't a true .400 team that's why they're only getting 5/6 points. Stop looking at trends and records.

I was breaking down what he was trying to say as completely in error. No doubt theres no such thing as a square or sharp play, just a play. But its not like we dont both know what he was trying to say there and what he means when he says a square play, being the "obvious play". That's why I was showing his statement makes no sense in the regard that OKC is the "square" play with those stats (there were no trends mentioned there) as well as OKC being the huge public play which is most commonly referred to as the "square play". As far as Dallas not being a true .400 you are correct. However many people will see Dallas for their actual value as opposed to intrinsic value of where they would be if...they see where they are ranked right now as well as OKC being the #1 in the NBA.