Leans for Saturday 11/29/08

[cocknocker]

Well today, I have only one play for the board, and I like the Rockets to get the job done gainst the Spurs, who are now at full strength, but have been a covering machine as of late. Houston built their team for games like this and with McGrady out posibly, I like the Rockets to get the job done against the small number. The Rockets lost their last home game to Indiana, but they were in a bad position in that game to get the cover, so I let it ride. But in this game we have double revenge working in favor of the Rockets. Prior to the Spurs last 2 wins however, the Rockets were 3-1 ats overall against the Spurs. Let's also throw in the fact that the Spurs played Saturday night and the Rockets were off working on their rotations and so forth, still licking their wounds from the loss to Indiana. They will come out strong in this game. The Rockets are always catching points at home to the Spurs usually 4 on average, so I am sure that they will get some in this one. Any points given to the Rockets in this game is too many.

Houston+2.5 (projected especially if McGrady is out)

[cnleaf]

Tony Parker is coming back on this team. HOU seems to be a great play especially when Spur has their big player coming back, time mix management for the Spur coach.

[cocknocker]

After some tight research, I want someone on the board to talk me out of taking Golden State/New York over in the 1st half. Both of these teams are desperate for a win, and neither one of them has any defense. New York is last in the league in defense, and has Nate Robinson (groin) and Cuttino Mobley (oldness... just kidding irregular heartbeat) out. The threes will be flying n this one, and i like the 1st half over whatever, unless one of the CK Mafia convinces no to do it. I don't think that 116 is inconceivable for the 1st half.

Also I may keep an eye on the Dallas/Sacramento over 1st half if it is around 105 or so. i would like that number to go over the total in the 1st half

So possibles for the halves

New York/Golden State 1st half over if it is around 102 or so
Dallas/Sacramento 1st half over if around 105


We will know by tomorrow what the numbers are

[wangichu]

After some tight research, I want someone on the board to talk me out of taking Golden State/New York over in the 1st half. Both of these teams are desperate for a win, and neither one of them has any defense. New York is last in the league in defense, and has Nate Robinson (groin) and Cuttino Mobley (oldness... just kidding irregular heartbeat) out. The threes will be flying n this one, and i like the 1st half over whatever, unless one of the CK Mafia convinces no to do it. I don't think that 116 is inconceivable for the 1st half.

Also I may keep an eye on the Dallas/Sacramento over 1st half if it is around 105 or so. i would like that number to go over the total in the 1st half

So possibles for the halves

New York/Golden State 1st half over if it is around 102 or so
Dallas/Sacramento 1st half over if around 105


We will know by tomorrow what the numbers are

ok... so i checked into the points these two teams have allowed and scored in their last few games and this is what i see...


the points scored by the knicks in the first half were not useable in my opinion, because neither of these teams play defense like cleveland or detroit so those two first halves really skewed the averages, and likewise philadelphia's perimeter defense and that being the first game of the road trip makes the warriors points for alittle off.

BUT, the defensive numbers over the last 5 for golden state (who only added with crawford as harrington got little PT) show an average of 57.6 points allowed in the first half by golden state, and for the knicks, since the trade, they have allowed 58.5 taken together, that's a total of 116.1. and with these two teams being runners and gunners i really see something like a golden state phoenix of old tempo where even if the two teams are off, they'll just push pace to make sure they score... i really like the play and barring an absurdly high spread, i'm on it.

Otherwise, yeah... the rockets is about the only play that jumps off the board to me at this point.

and by the way CK... should have trusted you yesterday... that miami play is what i call signature CK... hell of a play

[cocknocker]

It's all good, wangichu,

The Missus is stepping in with Sacramento tomorrow with the "bet on a team that has 3 straight losses" theory of ours at work. Styles like Sacramento plus whatever points. They have just as much ambition as Dallas does, yet Dallas lost ats to a team with a record above .600. Sacramento also lost ats on the road against a heavily favored team over .600 record-wise. Might as well take the points plus the effort. The Kings usually get 4.5 points at home as a home dog to Dallas usually. Anything over that is a steal. They covered a 6 point spread the last time they played Dallas at home, and a 4 point push the home game before that.

Kings +4.5(projected: Style's Pick)

If anyone hasn't noticed...my girl is quietly killing the books, making situational plays on only two NBA teams. Her winning percentage has been pretty good all year. I warned all of you that she doesn't play. Anyone keeping track knows what she is doing. This girl is a big loss to Covers and a tremendous gain to CK Mafia/SBR thread followers (about 1500 per day). Never underestimate the powers of a woman. Bobcats and Kings all year baby!

[cocknocker]

I am still studying College Football-note the time of this post. So far i have come up with the following leans for Saturday. I will make my final decision at 8:30am pst or so. I think that i will get a late break on Georgia. If not i will take them at -6.5 with a point buy. I want to get under all key numbers (3, 3.5, 7, 7.5, 10, 10.5, 13, 13.5 14, 14.5) when playing a favorite. Anyway here goes what i like so far: Greek.com lines

Georgia-7.5 (buying a point to make my spread -6.5)
Alabama-15 (buying a point and a half to make my spread 13.5)
Florida-16.5 (light play on the under)
Kentucky+3.5
Oklahoma State+7.5

[Garso]

I have to admit... Styles' play have been ON POINT.... please keep them coming...

[jalein]

^^^^Styles is off the chain. When a buddy of mine turned me on to Covers in March or so earlier this year, I found Stylistic. It was on the heels of CK being banned and some tricks that are more worried about protecting a social club than winning (who shall remain nameless) kept mentioning CK and accused just about everyone who was winning that they were CK in cognito. To make a long story short, Styles KILLED the NBA and made me some serious cheddar. I cant say how happy I am that the CK/Styles combo is back in effect.

[cocknocker]

Okay, overnight numbers reveals that i am off on 2 of my plays, and I plan to atone for those picks. My lineup will go as follows on college football

Georgia-7.5 (I am playing it at -6.5 with 1 point buy)
Auburn+14.5 (the line fell from 16)
Florida State+15.5 (the line fell on that one too)
Oklahoma State+7.5
Kentucky+3.5

[cocknocker]

As far as NBA is concerned, the Rockets are -3.5, and we were spot on with our prognostication of Sacramento's line which ended up being 4.5 as prescribed. Other notables are Cleveland -7 (Milwaukee had been a covering machine until they played Detroit last night.I say that they go down big due to this being the 1st home game after a long road trip, and Cleveland is streaking), and Knicks-1. The Knicks will win this game after two straight embarrassments, and the Warriors blew their best chance to get a win in their last two games, and now they are just out of gas, and the Knicks run at will. I am assuming that the 1st half line total line will be around 112.5 on that one.. The Kings/Mavs may have a 1st half total of 103.5 or so. Still waiting on the final numbers from those two.

[cocknocker]

Styles likes Boston today playing against the Bobcats, who went into overtime yesterday to get the straight up win. The line is at 8.5 now and rising. So for those interested in her picks it's

Sacramento +4.5
Boston-8.5

[BigMoneyMan]

Well I know its late but took G Tech, Clemson, and Virginia. I had a meeting this morning and no time to post before they started. I will be back later. I really hope you guys got that late night NBA money I posted on yesterdays thread. I hit 5 units on the two games.

[jamesrg]

I like Denver and Utah tonight

I'm giving a little thought to Orlando as well.

[cocknocker]

Florida has gone back to being favored by 16, if it stays thatway, then I a playing Florida State+17 by buying a point, and getting back on the key number of 17. Hopefully I can get the public to boost the line up to 16.5! Then i will play it at +17.5

[vassman86]

Does anyone else like Miami -1 over the Clippers? The lines started opened at Miami +1 earlier today, even reaching Miami +2 earlier this morning. It looks like the line is rising to Miami -2 right now.

[wangichu]

granted, this is a different season and different variables are afoot, but ....

say what you will about the bobs, but there's something eerie about the way the matchup with the defending chumps. the bobs covered 3 of four last year, including both in boston, winning one outright... i remember that last second 3 by ray ray to just beat the buzzer early last year and just avoid their first loss to the friggin' bobcats... i'm considering the last matchup of the year an aberration because there were maybe two weeks left and nobody cared any more, but here are the first three matchups:

BOS -8 @ CHAR: BOS 96- CHAR 95
BOS -13.5 vs CHAR: BOS 83- CHAR 95
BOS -18 vs CHAR BOS 108- CHAR 100

some how, charlotte just matches up wel with boston... and whatever the reason, i will take my favorite home dog with 8 and a half to stir the tea party up a bit Furthermore, the addition of defense to their repetoire ala larry brown has been keeping them in a number of games later and they sure do have shooters to make up ground if it comes to that

CHAR +9 (i'll hook it)

[BigMoneyMan]

Three more real quick Maryland +7, Duke +8, Memphis -14. I know I post late but there is a good reason for it so check right before game time if you want. 3-0 so far lets keep it rolling. Unfortunately, Florida and Alabama are no plays for me today. These are both big rivalry games and even though they are both far superior you can throw that out the window in this situation. Anyway i am going to watch my Alabama get it done today and I don't like to bet on games that mean something to me.

[cocknocker]

Taking Bama-7, and Florida -7 both for the second half as I see taht i underestimaed how bad the offenses were for Auburn and Florida State

[wangichu]

btw, shout out to pronk on those college bball plays yesterday... thanks for the extra cash, holla if you have some more insight for us

[BigMoneyMan]

Last of the college lineup Kentucky and Notre Dame the line is at -32 now. Way to much with the way SC has been playing and there history. They buried them at home last year and I don;t you think they forgot about it.

[wangichu]

the spread in the clippers game looks a little fishy...

1) heat coming off a big nationally televised win are due for a let down... they may have d-wade, but that was a revenge game for marion and really just one of those games that a superstar like d-wade can deliver for you... overall, the heat are NOT that good.

2) classic cave-in spread that i really like... the clips came in favored and true to form, the public pounded the heat and they became favorites...

3) the most glaring weakness i've seen out of the heat is no post presence... well like them or not, the clips now have 3 bigs who can make some noise down low. Kaman, camby and now randolph... randolph can score and shouldn't have trouble against beasely or whomever the heat throw at them down low, but camby and kaman will then be untouched down low. clips 1-2-3 is looking better with eric gordon, baron davis, and al thorton... really a legitamite group...

betting on the clippers is risky, but as sick as they are of losing, playing the heat on the road with a tired d-wade is as good a chance as they can get.

clips +2.5 (or more?)

[wangichu]

also liking the bucks to play the cavs tough... they only lost by 6 in cleveland, they've been covering machines, and here they are getting 7 at home... one of my favorite home dogs to play and i think it may take another 41 by lebron to eek this one out..

MIL +7

LAC +3
CHAR +9
HOU -3

and i think that's where i stop in the NBA today

[cocknocker]

wang,

how can you play Charlotte coming home on the back end of a back to back against a team as good as the Celtics,with the previous game ebing an overtime game? I just don't see them getting the job done tonight as the Celtics don't have any feelings or regards to their opponents. Doc leaves the regulars in deep into the 4th quarter regardless of the amount of points that they are up. He just doesn't care. I think that Charlotte looses this one by double digits but covers the 1st half with carry over effect working for them.

As ar as Cleveland is concerned, Mo Williams is facing his old team. And with the Bucks playing a back end of a back to back and also playing their first home game after a long road trip, they are in a bad position to get the cover. Cleveland may blow them out, as the Bucks are not a particularly deep team, especially without the services of the brilliant but brittle Michael Redd. The Bucks have covered 8-2-1 over their last 11 games but this one is a difficult situation, especially when Mo Williams new team wants to show up his old team for him. Just can't bet against the Cavs right now. the old man and the young understudy go head to head on this one

Light play on Cavs-7

[Alex68]

Hi CK, did u decided on over NYN 1h? or Dal over 1H?

[wangichu]

that milwaukee line hasn't budged and not even 10% of the public is on milwaukee, plus the way they've played teams tough lately, and the way it took 41 from lebron to keep them down last time, just them on those points

as long as it took that line to move, with overwhelming money on boston and charlotte's uncanny ability to hang with boston, i'm kind of ignoring the minutes hoping they play off adrenaline if nothing else... to be quite honest, i've never really known how much stock to put in coming home off a back to back... i've always used it as a supporting arguement if my evidence is pointing the same way. I've actually been waiting for this game and wanting to take charlotte... i'm not playing it heavy or anything, so i guess if i get burned, then i'll have a better idea of the significance of their situation, but having already played them, i'm kinda stuck pulling for them.

granted, these are two of my favorite home dogs and i do sometimes play them wrong, even if i'm wrong though, i'm fading an excessive public number with a pair of live home dogs, so i'd rather lose my money that way, then playing with the public like a sheep. You do have me kinda worried now though... guess we'll just have to see.

[SexyMit]

the spread in the clippers game looks a little fishy...

1) heat coming off a big nationally televised win are due for a let down... they may have d-wade, but that was a revenge game for marion and really just one of those games that a superstar like d-wade can deliver for you... overall, the heat are NOT that good.

2) classic cave-in spread that i really like... the clips came in favored and true to form, the public pounded the heat and they became favorites...

3) the most glaring weakness i've seen out of the heat is no post presence... well like them or not, the clips now have 3 bigs who can make some noise down low. Kaman, camby and now randolph... randolph can score and shouldn't have trouble against beasely or whomever the heat throw at them down low, but camby and kaman will then be untouched down low. clips 1-2-3 is looking better with eric gordon, baron davis, and al thorton... really a legitamite group...

betting on the clippers is risky, but as sick as they are of losing, playing the heat on the road with a tired d-wade is as good a chance as they can get.

clips +2.5 (or more?)

I'm all over this one also... Also wondering why in the hell would Washington be favored over Atlanta? Lets cash these and welcome over from Covers, I have an acct there also but normally post just here. Probably take clippers ML also

[BigMoneyMan]

I got robbed on that Maryland game. 1.42 left and they throw a interception with a chance to tie it up and possible win. Oh well I pushed that and Duke. so 4-0-2 for the day I will take it. I am going to be around for a little while to look at the NBA be back soon.

[OuchaDirkFan41]

My mavs are playin pretty good, they might cover tonight.

[BigMoneyMan]

Taking San Antonio 1st half

[cocknocker]

This first half over for the Knicks and Warriors is a piece of cake! I should have played it heavier. I am not sos sure about the Sacramento/Dallas 1st half over yet. I am still deciding on whether i am going to pla yit or just play the Kings, which i feel have a little mor value with respect tothe play. The news tht T-Mac is not playing is driving down the line, but i am still taking teh Rockets-2, buying off the hook

[BigMoneyMan]

clevland 2nd half !!!! Easy

[cocknocker]

Wang,
you got the best of the deal. Good call on Charlotte. You already know that they get faded next game, but not as much as the fade job i am going to put on New Jersey tomorrow when they go to Phoenix!

[cocknocker]

Houston was a big hit for me, as i was down some units today,chaing late movement on my football games instead of sticking to my original calls. The linemaker fooled me, on that stuff, but what the hey... Cleveland is acting like they are ready for a backdoor cover tonight, but it's early and LeBron usually finishes games well. Sacrameto is basically a second half team at home,so don't start sweating homies, it will get greater later. They will give maximal effort in the 2nd half.

[BrandonLaz]

Well I just need the Cavs to win -7 and OU to keep it at -7.5 that game is turning into a second half scorefest.

[cocknocker]

BrandonLaz, you're good! Cleveland cashed the ticket for us little homies! No we wait on Sacramento to provide the ats shocker for us!