Last Night Was A Disaster!!! - Tonight's Picks

Mocknroll · 01-02-13, 12:02 PM

If you're just going to throw money at heavy ML faves I would say you should lay off actually betting for a while and look at capping. I mean, you're looking at winning $1.50 on all those picks except Clippers you're looking at winning $4. If only 1 of them loses you will have a losing day.

You may as well just parlay those 4 for $20 and cross your fingers none of them lose. You will stand to win more and lose less.

If betting ML faves was profitable in the long run we'd all but doing it. Unfortunately it's not that easy.

Like I said, practise betting lines before you start for real. Start with $10 and bet $1 lines and see if you can make a profit in a week or 2. If you can, bump up your units.

If you can't, well... maybe betting isn't for you.

botev1921 · 01-02-13, 12:09 PM

Clips could go on a losing streak now. They did it before and we know they can't play GSW.

KingDF · 01-02-13, 12:23 PM

I plan to bet the spreads on these, not the money line. I agree with you about going ML on the favorites, its just not worth it.

KingDF · 01-02-13, 01:21 PM

After reviewing the spreads, I have updated my bets above.

Kadinni · 01-02-13, 01:37 PM

I think gsw beat Clippers. They are in a tough spot, playing a b2b game after New Years and they have the lakers in sight. I would lean towards warriors or not bet, but Good Luck!

KingDF · 01-02-13, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Kadinni

I think gsw beat Clippers. They are in a tough spot, playing a b2b game after New Years and they have the lakers in sight. I would lean towards warriors or not bet, but Good Luck!

My friend is also saying lean toward Warriors... but he always says "bet on death". So now he's in a conflicted position. LOL. He's betting Warriors and I'm betting Clippers. Its a real dilema, that's why I'm only putting $5 on it. I guess we'll see what happens.

vinny808 · 01-02-13, 01:47 PM

1) You're betting too many games
2)You're 0-9. If you keep betting the way you do, you'll eventually end up 28wins -32 loses but still losing money.

KingDF · 01-02-13, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by vinny808

1) You're betting too many games
2)You're 0-9. If you keep betting the way you do, you'll eventually end up 28wins -32 loses but still losing money.

To clarify, that 0-9 is because I bet 9 tickets yesterday, all multi team parlays. If I'd bet individual teams, I would be 2-4. Last night was crazy though. 4 out of 6 favorites got beat, and one missed the spread by .5 points which would have made it 3-3 (coulda, woulda, shouldas). So that's where my 0-9 comes from. I was counting tickets, not individual games, but I agree with you that I should cut down on the number of games I bet.

KingDF · 01-02-13, 07:13 PM

Finally got my bets in. Changed the above to reflect my actual bets.

ChiLLx · 01-03-13, 01:50 AM

Betting too many games. NBA is too random and ridiculous to beat the board consistently every night. Narrow it down to 1-2 games you like at first and then only play those. Once you can confidently say you're hitting 50%+ then maybe expand your plays.

It also takes some out of the box thinking to win NBA. Of course a team like the Clippers look like they "should" win each game. But it doesn't happen. NBA requires a lot of situational awareness and understanding if a certain "spot" is good for a team or bad for a team.

KingDF · 01-03-13, 03:53 AM

Thanks. I agree.

vinny808 · 01-04-13, 02:29 AM

3) Never ever bet parlays, ever. unless youre up big and want to get glucky. they are sucker bets.