player props system

easyliving · 01-01-13, 01:01 AM

sounds interesting. which book will you be using for the props?

dosogood · 01-01-13, 01:39 AM

I`ll be using 5Dimes - Marathon - Bets10 - Bovada

If you have any suggestions, i ll be pleased to hear. I`ve neteller so its easy to move money around.
5dimes releases so late
bets10 bovada expensive lines
marathon seems to be the best now

i`ll be line shopping quite frequently.

can`t sign up for pinnacle, i ve dual residency but they don`t accept both.. kinda funny : )

dosogood · 01-01-13, 05:03 PM

ok here we go;

BR : 100 X

i`ll be placing 1X and 2X bets

for tonight;

2X Tyson Chandler under 14.5 @1.90

Catchn_Picks · 01-01-13, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by dosogood

Here I`ll be posting plays for basketball player prop bets for NBA and Europe basketball.
I`m betting player props for a while with a better success than team bets. During this period I realized some facts about it;

*For any over bet ( pts-rb-ast-blk ) there might be some unplanned actions during the game which will blow your bet ( believe me it happens more often than u would expect )..such as;
- early large lead in the game ,less minutes than usual
- early foul problem
- player injury during the game

*For any under bet (pts-rb-ast-blk ) all i can think of for an unplanned action is overtime.

When you have an under bet and if any of the `for any over bet`scenarios happen, it is a huge +EV...
Saying this, I`ll be focusing on only `under` player prop bets here...

One more thing about player prop bets is; books almost always open the lines around player averages with the exception of missing key player.. So here comes the most important part ` focusing on defenders ` . I`m about to complete a full defender list with some nice stats...

Have a wonderful year everyone..

If u would like to add or discuss anything about this system,please do... I`ll be posting plays as soon as I decide what bankroll system i will use...

Really well thought out thinking...I have been considering elements of this for awhile...will be tailing ...the very best to all

Catchn_Picks · 01-01-13, 05:12 PM

Somebody is tailing you...5D opens at Chandler U12.5 +110...basterds

Catchn_Picks · 01-01-13, 05:15 PM

doso:

will you keep this same thread for the rest of the season?

dosogood · 01-01-13, 05:17 PM

bets10 and offiside still has it at 14.5

couldn`t check all books but marathon was 13 5dimes 12.5 etc..
so I think i ve a good value,line shopping is important at player props..

dosogood · 01-01-13, 05:19 PM

@catch

that`s the plan : )

Catchn_Picks · 01-01-13, 05:57 PM

I have always thought the prop value is on the unders...cappers look to play the offense output without regard to the changing defenses...this is why you will see players go off one night and then suck the next. I think your value analysis is spot on.

Rotoworld reports that chandler is probable with an ankle..hopefully that slows him down

dosogood · 01-01-13, 06:09 PM

adding;

1X Chris Paul under 18 @1.85

i ll play the high juice ,most books have it around 16.5 to 17.5 ranging from 1.87 to 1.90

dosogood · 01-01-13, 08:28 PM

1X Jrue Holiday under 8.5 ast @2.05

last bet for the day.

dosogood · 01-01-13, 08:35 PM

ty lawson is out for nuggets. I`m not happy with that but i`m still sticking with c paul bet.
in my opinion, clippers will more likely work in the paint with their tall guys where nuggets has a weak link .

dosogood · 01-01-13, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by dosogood

2X Tyson Chandler under 14.5 @1.90

WON

Tyson Chandler 10 pts
As I expected he had only 4/7 FGA and 2/2 FT. aldridge and hickins darkened the paint!

Honda · 01-01-13, 11:03 PM

dosogood · 01-01-13, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by dosogood

1X Chris Paul under 18 @1.85

WON

Chris Paul 10 pts
he had 4-9 FGA where he averages 12 and 1-4 3PM

dosogood · 01-02-13, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by dosogood

1X Jrue Holiday under 8.5 ast @2.05

LOST

he already has 9 at the end of 3rd. Philly teamwise rocking today so is holiday...

dosogood · 01-02-13, 12:22 AM

Starting BR : 100x
Current BR : 101.75x
Profit/Loss : +% 1.75

1x plays : 1 - 1 - 0
2x plays : 1 - 0 - 0

dosogood · 01-02-13, 12:50 PM

Hopefully another profit day.. I`ll add more through out the day.

2X JJ Reddick under 15.5 @1.90
2X David Lee under 21.5 @1.90

PRIMO99 · 01-02-13, 02:59 PM

hey doso,
i specialize in props betting,
nfl mostly,

ur missing, few books,
sportsbook groups betusa, and betcris-formally 'bookmaker' and the greek.....all pay fast, A books
all have nba prop offerings,
looking forward to seeing how the experiment unfolds,
i like ur angle on unders vs overs, due to the 'over factors' considerations that may occur
but there is no better prop posEx, than a 6 man, playing additional minutes, when a starter is a late scratch,
ie: back up centre, or shooting guard,

can i ask , what u base ur under plays on ??
i heard defense,

would that be team defense, or an individual ??

dosogood · 01-02-13, 06:10 PM

adding;

1X Kyrie Irving under 23.5 @1.95
1X Nene under 13.5 @1.95
1X Deron Williams under 16.5 @1.91

that`s all for the day.

@PRIMO

betcris is on my list too.. but i`ll check these ones more often,thanks.
well of course I take both team and individual defenses into consideration. First of all I try to play the game in my head and try to figure out which weapons the teams are most likely to use..such as paint play-zone defense-pick n roll etc.
depending on that i work matchups statisticsly and follow last player reports.

I `m workin on defensive efficiency formula,not perfect yet.. trying on..

easyliving · 01-02-13, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by dosogood

adding;

1X Kyrie Irving under 23.5 @1.95
1X Nene under 13.5 @1.95
1X Deron Williams under 16.5 @1.91

those are absolutelygreat odds. What book are you playing these @ with those odds.

dosogood · 01-02-13, 09:02 PM

1x plays are from bovada
2x plays from marathon

overs were not 1.95 though at bovada, they were 1.80 1.83

dosogood · 01-02-13, 09:36 PM

2X JJ Reddick under 15.5 @1.90 WON
1X Kyrie Irving under 23.5 @1.95 WON
1X Nene under 13.5 @1.95 LOST

dosogood · 01-02-13, 09:37 PM

I hated the nene loss he had 15 pts. where he made 13 fga, he was averaging 8 for the season.. Hibbert had a horrible game defensively..

btw reddick 7 pts and irving had 22 pts.

2 more to go...

dosogood · 01-02-13, 09:44 PM

@easyliving

I `ll add the books i placed the bet next to odds from now on.