Write-ups for early games tonight

[bubblebuttluv]

Here are my write-ups for all the early games tonight (the ones that start before 8). How things will be now is I will post my write-ups and then state my one pick for the night. I am 3 for 3 so far since I actually learned to handicap Tuesday night. Tail me if you want, it's your money. On each of my write-ups I have my opinion at the bottom, but then at the end of all my write-ups I will have my pick of the night. This is the format I will use throughout the season. So if you go with a pick from another of my write-ups don't get pissed if it doesn't hit, since that write-up was not for my ONE PICK that night. For tonight later games may hold better value than these early games, but I am going to have some money on something non-basketball related later tonight so that is why I only handicapped the early games. FYI my ONE PICK is the one game I'll have money on each night. Good luck, all! Let's get this paper! IMPORTANT: THESE WRITE-UPS DO NOT FACTOR IN ANY ROSTER CHANGES! (This preface will be copy pasted into all my future threads)

Here are my 3 winning write-ups from earlier this week, so you guys can see my wins:

1.) http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...l#post17184804

my spread had Pacers -14.5 and they won by 20.

2.) http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...l#post17204014

this write-up came off my hard drive because I was messaging it to people and I guess I forgot to post it. Take this one with a grain of salt if you will. My spread had Clippers at -18.75 and they won by 16.

3.) http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...ove-night.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/2083572-heat-mavericks-write-up.html

my spread had the heat at -17 and the heat won by 15. They would have won by more had Spolstra not benched Lebron and Wade when they were blowing out the Mavs by like 25 points (though this was a wise move by Spolstra).

Now on to tonight's write-ups:

[bubblebuttluv]

Remember when making your own personal spread, the points awarded for things such as roster changes and rest are subjective. These spread decisions are made using my subjectivity, so agree or disagree with them if you choose.

12/21/12:

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors:

Orlando Magic:

1.) Avg points last 4 games: 99.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 92.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one meeting this year (86)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 46.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 84.825
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 89.75

Toronto Raptors:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 102
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.25
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 95.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only 1 game this year (97)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 39.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 78.925
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 9.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 90

So the Raptors win 6 out of 9, so it looks as if they should win straight up. The raptors number is 12 (102-90), and the magic’s number is 9.75 (99.5 – 89.75). So for my raw spread the Raptors should be a 2.25 point favorite (12 – 9.75). For my pad the Magic have one more day of rest so I will give them a point, but the game is at Toronto so I give Toronto a point so the pad is a wash and my spread is Raptors -2.25. Glen Davis is out in terms of rosters, so let’s give Toronto 2 points, so now Toronto is at -4.25. 5Dimes spread is -3.5. Since the spread is so small and my spread is less than a point off of 5Dimes, if there was any play I would take the Raptors ML.

[bubblebuttluv]

12/20/12:

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers:

Atlanta Hawks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 99.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 100.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the teams have not played this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 44.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 65.25
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 100

Philadelphia 76ers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 96.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 91.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 96.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the teams have not played this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 38
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 71.75
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 109.5

The hawks win 6 out of 9 categories (6 out of 8, if you don’t count category 4), so it looks like they should win straight up. The hawks number is -0.5, and the 76ers number is -13 (96.5 -109.5). So for my raw number the Hawks are a 12.95 point favorite (-0.5 – 13). For the pad the Hawks have one more days rest than the 76ers (the 76ers played on Sunday and the hawks played on Saturday) so give the hawks a point and the game is at 76ers stadium so give the 76ers a point, so the pad is a wash. So barring any roster changes, my spread is Hawks -12.95, so for betting purposes the Hawks are -12.5. 5Dimes number is Hawks -2. So since I have the Hawks at a 10.5 point favorite over 5Dimes, I would take the Hawks at the spread, if you so choose.

[bubblebuttluv]

12/20/12:

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks:

Chicago Bulls:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 87.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.5
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 91.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (93)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 38.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 9.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 80.925
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 85

New York Knicks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 103.75
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 99.25
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 103.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (85)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 39.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 67.275
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 9.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101

The Bulls won 3 out of 9 categories, so the Knicks should win straight up. The Bulls number is 2.5 (87.5 – 85) and the Knicks number is (2.75). For my raw spread the Knicks should be a -0.25 favorite, so for betting it should be a pk. For the pad I give the Knicks a point for home field and the Bulls have one point for a little more rest, so for me the pad is a wash. So my spread is Knicks pk. 5Dimes has the Knicks at -6. For me, for now I would avoid this game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics:


Milwaukee Bucks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 88.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 91.5
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: 91.5
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 41
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 13.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 72.265
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 15.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 95

Boston Celtics:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 92.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 90
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 105
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: 92
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 37.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 8.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 74.825
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98.75

The Bucks won 2 out of the 9 categories, so the Celtics should win straight up. The Bucks number is -6.75 (88.25 – 95) and the Celtics number is -6.5 (92.25 – 98.75). So for my raw spread the Celtics should be a 0.25 point favorite (-6.75 –6.5). For the pad both teams have the same amount of rest and the game is at Boston so let’s give Boston a point. So my spread is Celtics -1.25. 5Dimes has the line at Celtics -5.5 and since the Celtics ML of -225 is outside my “value range” +200 to -200, if I had to bet I would take the Bucks and the points. I do not think this is the best play of the day, though.

[bubblebuttluv]

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers:

Indiana Pacers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 95
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 88.5
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 96
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (96)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 44.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 70.85
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 86

Cleveland Cavaliers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 94.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 86.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 95.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (81)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 39.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 75.7
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 15
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 102.25

The Pacers win in 6 out of 9 categories, so as of now they should win straight up. The Pacers number is 9 (95 – 86), and the Cavaliers number is -7.75 (94.5 – 102.25). My raw spread has the Pacers as a 16.75 point favorite (9 – 7.75). They both have the same amount of rest and it is at Cleveland, so let’s give Cleveland a point. My spread is Pacers -15.75. 5Dimes has the Pacers at -4. So I would take Pacers at the spread. The Pacers are at -185 which falls in my “value range” if you think it is worth it to go that route. I think the points are fine though.

[bubblebuttluv]

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons:

Washington Wizards:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 86.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 81.25
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 98.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: they haven’t played each other this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 43.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 76.4
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 17
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98.5

Detroit Pistons:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 87.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 99.25
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 87.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: they haven’t played each other this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 43.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 65.375
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 11.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 95

The Wizards win in 2 out of 9 categories (2 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4), so the Pistons look as if they’ll win straight up. The Wizards number is -12 (86.5 – 98.5), and the Pistons number is -7.75 (87.25 – 95). So my raw spread has the Pistons favored by 4.25 points (-7.75 – 12). For the pad the Pistons have a little more rest so I’ll give them a point and it’s at Detroit so let’s give him another point. So with the pad, my spread is Pistons -6.25. 5Dimes has the Pistons at -6.5. Because my spread is so close to 5Dimes’s, I see very little value here and I would avoid this game.

[bubblebuttluv]

My pick for the day is take the Pacers at -4. Remember to check rosters before making this bet, if you are tailing me. The above write-up did not take into account any major roster changes and I am going to check on news about the Pacers before I personally make my bet. I just post the roster disclaimer because I am just here to help and if a major roster change blows the analysis I am not held responsible. Now, let's get paid ladies and gentleman!

[quantifyTHAT]

You realize all of those numbers are fairly irrelevant? That's why they give them to you.

[bubblebuttluv]

We'll see, all my research has paid off so far. If you don't do any research you may as well be throwing darts at a board. Which if you just flip coins to determine your bets, that's cool for you. But, that's not my style. Don't troll me, bro!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bVa6jn4rpE

[Reign Man]

I have the Pacers as well, still trying to figure out why the line is so low -4 seems fishy but I think I'm just over thinking it. Both teams have had a day off to rest and each time I've picked the Cavs they've burned me plus I think Pacers defense will frustrate them all game

[Told You So!]

Big butt love I parlayed atl and ind...maybe we'll win...

[Yinz Hooligan]

i am also on the pacers, nice write up, i didnt wanna over think this as well..seems solid by the numbers

[quantifyTHAT]

I do research, just of relevance. None of the information above matters in the sample size it's being given. It's useless to see stats over the last 4 games without every prior game as well to get a real idea for how a team is performing. That's just stats in a vacuum, they're useless. Best of luck to you though, without a doubt not trying to be negative, hope you find a winner in whatever way you can, these stats just happen to not be relevant.

[bubblebuttluv]

Best of luck to you too, quantifyTHAT. I was going to tell you that earlier, but even over the internet I try not to sound like an asshole. So I thought if I said "Don't troll me, bro! Good luck tonight!" it would have sounded super sarcastic and douchey.

[pattymayo]

I am 3 for 3 so far since I actually learned to handicap Tuesday night. Tail me if you want, it's your money.

sorry that made me LOL

good luck tonight pal-- but I think you will soon find out that doing all of these research is pretty much a waste of time. over the long run, you will probably have similar results as if you had just thrown darts

[bubblebuttluv]

We'll have to see. Best of luck to you tonight, as well.

[bubblebuttluv]

FYI when I placed my bet at 5Dimes they had moved to -4.5 for -110 so I wanted to stick to the original -4. So I paid up slightly at -118 to buy them at -3.5.

[crackerjack]

You learned to handicap on Tuesday? Dude...sign me up for your newsletter!

Just bustin' your balls man. Good luck. Any research or methods are better than none. Just don't be disappointed if your next six lose. It takes more than a few days to learn to handicap.

[johnnymapalo]

Stats do mean something. Don't let them discourage you. Keep up the good work buds. By the way, I love the Atlanta -2 play. When I 1st saw the line I was like WTF. I thought Atlanta would have been at least a 6 point favorite. Only thing though, Philly has beaten Atlanta every game in the series last year. I still like Atlanta though as they are better on the road than at home..

[lewsparks77]

pattymayo, do you have some advice on how to handicap a game?

[bubblebuttluv]

I hope all you guys rode with me on the Pacers tonight. We cashed that.

[lewsparks77]

Good job. I still would have taken the Pistons. Also, you said stay away from the Bulls Knicks. Good call. you also said to take the Raptors money line which would have been sweet since they won the game but did not cover the spread. Keep it up my friend. don't listen to wanabe sharps.

[vancityswag]

Wow...the technique is questionable but the results are pretty damn respectable. Hopefully it keeps up. Best of luck.

[bubblebuttluv]

Thanks for all the support, I appreciate the kind words. Even though this is an online forum, I hope to become a well respected capper around here over time. I may not place any basketball bets tonight or do any write-ups, because I am going to a party tonight and I will be busy tomorrow. The only thing I really care about tonight, is the Falcons/Lions game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Correction: busy tonight, not tomorrow.

[strybie]

nice !!!

[Mocknroll]

Well done bubblebutt. (It's hard to sound serious by calling you that).

To those who are saying his method won't win, why bother commenting?

This guy has taken a lot of time to develop a system that he doesn't NEED to share with anyone. He chooses to share all this information with you, and people come in here and say shit like "it won't win" and "you may as well throw darts, it's a waste of time". So what if it is? If you want to offer some constructive criticism go for it, but why honestly waste time from your day to flat out tell someone "you're not gonna win bro"?

People in this forum need to realize that your mentality should be BETTORS VS BOOKS, not BETTORS VS BETTORS. We should be trying to help each other. Is this not supposed to be a forum for us to all converge, share information. give props, and attempt to win some money from the books? By shitbagging this guy, or anyone who takes the time to share information with us, you are pretty much saying "I hope the books win", and that should never be a bettors mentality.

This isn't personally how I like to cap games, but your system has helped you make some good calls bubblebutt, so best of luck on your plays and I hope you come out well ahead.

[bubblebuttluv]

Thanks guys! Good luck to you all!

[OnexvieT]

Hey just a question where do you get your stats?

[bubblebuttluv]

The stats come from espn.com. The method was something that I created and the numbers for the pad are numbers that I come up with.

[mets710]

Hey Bubblebutt, I've been trailing you and love your stuff.. Keep up the great work! Lost some $ last night on the Denver game, so I'm trying to get back up tonight! Need a big one from you man. Thanks for all your plays!

[bubblebuttluv]

You're welcome, let's keep rolling. I have capped most of the games and all my write-ups will be up before 7:05, but it me be as late as 10-15 minutes before, idk. Now, I'm back to work...